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pdfFA A A E R O S PA C E F O R E C A S T
FISCAL YEARS 2025-2045
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Table of Contents
Forecast Highlights (2025–2045) ................................................................................................1
Review of 2024 ...........................................................................................................................5
Glossary of Acronyms.................................................................................................................7
Acknowledgements.....................................................................................................................9
FAA Aerospace Forecasts ........................................................................................................10
Economic Environment..........................................................................................................11
U.S. Airlines...........................................................................................................................14
Domestic Market................................................................................................................14
International Market ...........................................................................................................18
Cargo.................................................................................................................................28
General Aviation....................................................................................................................30
FAA Operations.....................................................................................................................36
U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet ..............................................................................................39
Commercial Space ................................................................................................................41
FAA Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities .......................................................................42
FY 2024 Results ................................................................................................................44
Forecast.............................................................................................................................45
Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy..................................................................................46
Emerging Aviation Entrants: Unmanned Aircraft System and Advanced Air Mobility .............49
New Entrants: Analysis and Forecasts...............................................................................49
Trends in Recreational/Model Aircraft New Registration ....................................................50
Trends in Commercial/Non-Model Aircraft and Forecasts Using Registrations vs.
Effective/Active Fleet .........................................................................................................53
2024 Survey and Preliminary Results ................................................................................56
Remote Pilot Forecast .......................................................................................................58
Large UAS .........................................................................................................................60
Advanced Air Mobility ........................................................................................................62
Forecast Uncertainties...........................................................................................................65
Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios .............................................................................70
Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................................................70
Alternative Forecasts.............................................................................................................74
Enplanements....................................................................................................................74
Revenue Passenger Miles .................................................................................................75
Available Seat Miles...........................................................................................................75
Load Factor .......................................................................................................................76
Yield ..................................................................................................................................77
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy ........................................................................................82
Appendix C: Forecast Tables ...................................................................................................84
Forecast Highlights (2025–2045)
The U.S. commercial air carrier industry has
managed several years of tumultuous supply
and demand environments. 2019 saw the
last of ten years of unprecedented stability
with lower costs and capacity discipline
leading to solid profitability. Then, with the
onset of the pandemic in 2020, demand
collapsed overnight, bringing profitability
down as well. The recovery began in 2022,
but it was so uneven across markets and
passenger segments that it was nearly
impossible to plan for. Domestic leisure
traffic surged, followed by Latin and finally
Atlantic markets in 2023, but Pacific traffic
still lags its 2019 levels and overall business
traffic remains below trend. In addition,
supply chain disruptions and manufacturing
missteps continue to plague aircraft
production, resulting in delays and overall
unpredictability of deliveries.
plan for such offerings. Taken together,
these shifts meant that carriers with broad
international footprints, a wide range of fare
classes and other perceived benefits were
able to operate profitably while others posted
losses. In 2024, the top eight U.S. passenger
carriers posted net profits of $6.4 billion,
including losses at two carriers that totaled
$2.0 billion, and were down from $8.0 billion
in 2023.
In 2024, the environment continued to shift
as some carriers benefited more than others
and overall weakness appeared as the year
progressed. Passengers continued to
display a preference for premium and
international
travel,
desires
that
strengthened following the depths of the
pandemic as their focus moved from
spending on goods to experiences. That
evolution helped spur a surge in travel across
the Atlantic but suppressed domestic travel.
However, carriers increased domestic
capacity in anticipation of a repeat of 2023
that didn’t occur, leaving the market
oversupplied and resulting in a drop in yields
and profitability. The importance of premium
travel to passengers became even more
evident and, by the end of the year, carriers
whose
business
strategies
shunned
premium products began to implement or
In the medium-term, airlines will strive to determine which shifts in demand that occurred
following the pandemic will be long-lasting
and which will fade as impacts of the pandemic recede. For example, the surge in demand for travel to Florida and Caribbean leisure destinations seems to be waning and
reverting to pre-pandemic levels. Similarly,
the changes to travel patterns – both day-ofweek and time-of-day – due to fewer business trips and more hybrid business and leisure trips have been partially unwound but
may not fully revert. On the other hand, many
carriers are investing in premium cabins with
the expectation that customers will continue
to be willing to pay for upgraded experiences. Although that willingness has been
very evident during recent years, it is not certain to continue. Furthermore, trade tensions
that emerged during the pandemic have
The business modifications necessitated by
the downturn will shape the industry for years
to come, long after the recovery is complete.
Primarily, airlines will be smaller having
retired aircraft and encouraged voluntary
employee separations. Fleets, however,
become younger and more fuel-efficient as
retirements targeted the oldest and the least
efficient aircraft.
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
2025 is for a continued slight slowing to 2.5
percent. The U.S. and the Latin America region slow somewhat below that level, but Europe experiences much slower growth with
some individual countries seeing outright declines. The Asia region, however, supports
the global figure with growth at about 4 percent. Beginning in 2025, global growth returns close to trend rates although some individual countries take longer.
weighed on some international traffic, particularly to China and other parts of Asia. This
will likely continue to lag activity in other regions, but the duration is unknown.
In the long run, many of the strengths and
capabilities developed over the decade between the end of the great recession and the
onset of COVID-19 will become evident
again. There is confidence that the U.S. airline industry has finally transformed from a
capital intensive, highly cyclical industry to
an industry that can generate solid returns on
capital and sustained profits.
System traffic in revenue passenger miles
(RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.8
percent a year between 2025 and 2045.
Domestic RPMs are forecast to grow 2.7
percent a year while International RPMs are
forecast to grow slightly faster at 2.8 percent
a year. System capacity as measured by
available seat miles (ASMs) is forecast to
grow slightly slower than RPMs over the
forecast horizon.
Fundamentally, over the long-term, aviation
demand is driven by economic activity, and a
growing U.S. and world economy provides
the basis for aviation to grow. The 2025 FAA
forecast calls for U.S. carrier domestic passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 2.4 percent per year. Passenger
growth is forecast to be slightly higher in the
first 10 years of the forecast horizon compared to the last 10 years of the forecast.
In aggregate, U.S. carriers posted profits in
FY2024, although not all carriers or quarters
were profitable. FAA expects U.S. carriers to
remain profitable over the next few years as
rising demand -- despite higher fares -- more
than offsets higher costs for labor and fuel.
As carriers continue to moderate capacity
growth, pay down debt, innovate their
products and maintain pricing power,
consistent profitability should emerge. Over
the long term, we see a competitive and
profitable aviation industry characterized by
increasing demand for air travel and airfares
growing more slowly than overall inflation,
reflecting growing U.S. and global
economies.
After averaging $55 per barrel over the five
years ending in 2021, oil prices surged to $93
per barrel with the Russian invasion of
Ukraine in 2022 but then moderated to $78
dollars per barrel in 2023 and 2024. Prices
are forecast to remain at about that level for
a few years before climbing slowly to reach
$99 per barrel at the end of the forecast
period.
Just as U.S. economic activity drives domestic demand for air transport, foreign economic activity affects international travel demand. In 2021, global real GDP rose above
6 percent, driven by worldwide pandemic relief programs. As central banks raised interest rates to restrain inflation caused by demand imbalances, growth moderated to 2.8
percent in 2024. The forecast for growth in
The general aviation (GA) sector has been
experiencing fast growth following the
recovery from the impact of the COVID-19
crisis as private aviation became an
attractive substitute for wealthier individuals.
This trend is reversing and the growth in GA
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
experimental aircraft fleet. Any additional
growth in the GA fleet is expected to occur in
turbine aircraft. Despite an average annual
growth of 0.5 percent of the active GA fleet
between 2023 and 2045, the number of GA
hours flown is projected to increase by 19.0
percent during this period (an average of 0.8
percent per year), as growth in turbine,
rotorcraft, and experimental hours more than
offset declines in fixed wing piston hours.
activity is slowing down, in both the higher
end turbine and the lower end piston
segments of general aviation use. Flight
hours by single-engine piston powered
aircraft, most frequently used in training,
have shown record increases in the past few
years as the highest numbers in new pilot
certifications in almost all categories have
been recorded. While this increase is
softening, FAA expects turbine activity,
mostly used in business and closely follows
economic growth, to remain robust in the
long run, with possible fluctuations in the
near term. The long-term outlook for general
aviation thus is promising, as growth at the
higher-end offsets continuing retirements at
the traditional low end, mostly pistonpowered part of the sector. The active GA
fleet is forecast to increase by 10.6 percent
between 2025 and 2045. The turbine aircraft
fleet, including rotorcraft, did not show a
decline between 2019 and 2023, and
continued its fast growth of 3.6 percent in
2022 and 2.3 percent growth in 2023. This
fleet is projected to have an average growth
rate of 2.1 percent per year during the
forecast period. The total piston fleet (single
and multi-engine pistons, and piston
rotorcraft) declined by 1.6 percent between
2019 and 2023 and is estimated to have
shrunk by an additional 0.4 percent in 2024.
The average annual growth rate of the piston
fleet between 2025 and 2045 is forecast to
be -0.1 percent. When experimental aircraft
are included, the majority of which are
pistons, the growth rate of this combined fleet
is 0.04 percent per year over the forecast
period, with a total growth of 0.8 percent by
2045. While steady growth in both GDP and
corporate profits results in continued growth
of the turbine and rotorcraft fleets, the largest
segment of the fleet – fixed wing piston
aircraft will continue to shrink in the next 20
years, just to be offset by the growing
With robust air travel demand growth in 2025
and steady growth thereafter, FAA expects
increased activity growth that has the
potential to increase controller workload.
U.S. airline activity has recovered from the
COVID downturn and is projected to see
steady growth over the forecast horizon
driven by growing passenger and traffic
volumes. Operations at FAA and Contract
Towers were 5.0 percent above pre-COVID
levels in 2024 and are forecast to grow from
these levels, led by strong growth in
commercial operations. Large and medium
hubs will continue to see faster increases
than small and non-hub airports, largely due
to the commercial nature of their operations.
Over the entire forecast period, operations at
FAA and contract towers are forecast to grow
1.1 percent a year with commercial activity
growing at almost four times the rate of noncommercial (general aviation and military)
activity.
Commercial Space launch activity has been
steadily growing over the past 6 years.
FY2024 actuals were the highest in U.S.
history at 148, accounting for 17.0% of the
activity since 1989. FAA forecasts launch and
re-entry activity to increase from a low-high
range of 174-183 in FY2025 to a low-high
range of 259-566 by FY2034. Much of this
increase is attributable to the lineup of
reusable vehicles, satellite deployment and
replacement, and the expectation for
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
cumulative annual growth rate of 0.7 percent
between 2024 and 2029. Based on
registration data, the size of the commercial
drone fleet (> 0.5 lbs. and up to 55 lbs.)
totaled approximately 966,000 aircraft by the
end of 2024. As the base (i.e., the cumulative
total) increases, the FAA anticipates the
growth rate of the sector to slow over time,
and forecasts the commercial drone fleet to
(i.e., base scenario) be about 1.18 million by
2029.
increased human space exploration and
space tourism.
The drone segment has been experiencing
healthy growth in the United States and
around the world over the past decade. The
last few years have been no exception
despite the profound impact of COVID-19 on
the overall economy. The introduction of
drones in the National Airspace System
(NAS) has opened numerous possibilities,
especially from a commercial perspective.
That introduction has also brought
operational challenges including safe and
secure integration of drones into the NAS.
Despite these challenges, the drone sector
holds enormous promise; potential uses
range from individuals flying solely for
recreational
purposes
to
individual
businesses carrying out focused missions to
large companies delivering commercial
packages and medical supplies. Public
service uses, such as conducting search and
rescue support missions following natural
disasters, are proving to be promising as
well. The FAA forecasts that the recreational
small drone fleet will (i.e., base scenario)
attain its peak over the next 5 years, from the
present 1.87 million units to approximately
1.93 million units by 2029, thus attaining a
Another sector showing promise is
Advanced Air Mobility (AAM). Based on
research performed by others, the FAA
believes that AAM entry into service (EIS) is
likely in the 2025-2027 timeframe. Starting
from limited services to initial launch cities,
services will be experimental, slow, and likely
gain a gradual trajectory of growth until 2030.
It is expected that the initial five years after
EIS will be required to resolve many
outstanding issues including establishing
solid AAM business cases. Depending upon
the sector’s resolution of the outstanding
issues, the 2030-2040 timeframe will see a
moderate growth trajectory. Beyond that
period, FAA anticipates a sustainable,
mature sector on a longer-term growth
trajectory.
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Review of 2024
with the normalization of consumer spending
from goods back into services. The general
aviation segment saw growth in aircraft deliveries, although total flight hours were little
changed from the year before. Unmanned
Aircraft System(s) (UAS) activity grew solidly, and commercial space launches surged
in 2024, both of which had expanded in 2023.
As the US aviation industry entered the
fourth year since the start of the COVID-19
pandemic and approached the one-year anniversary of the end of the public health
emergency, it finally surpassed 2019 levels
of both domestic and international RPMs.
Domestic passengers also exceeded 2019’s
level, a milestone international passengers
achieved the previous year. However, the industry continued to grapple with conditions
that were still evolving in response to the
pandemic. After being caught somewhat unprepared in 2023 for the surge in demand,
carriers feared a repeat in 2024. To ensure
sufficient capacity to match projected demand, carriers increased utilization and
added aircraft even as they were hindered
somewhat by delivery delays of new aircraft.
As the year progressed, excess capacity became evident, particularly in leisure markets,
and yields moved lower. Demand that had
showed strength in domestic markets in
2023 had shifted its interest to international
markets in 2024. Premium product demand,
however, continued and benefited carriers
with such offerings.
Low-Cost Carriers
(LCCs) generally lacked both premium and
long-haul international products, constraining their ability to capitalize on those areas of
demand strength and harming their outlooks.
Mainline carriers were impacted by a business travel recovery surge that never materialized, growing slowly and generally remaining below pre-pandemic volumes. By
the end of the year and the busy holiday season, carriers had started to rein in capacity
growth and reduce it in some areas, leading
to a solid improvement in profitability.
U.S. system passengers grew to 8 percent
above 2019 levels with domestic levels 6
percent higher and international 24 percent
higher.
Transportation
Security
Administration (TSA) checkpoint throughput
reflected this activity and comfortably
exceeded 2019’s levels. In 2024, average
daily throughput was 2.39 million passengers
compared to 2.28 million in 2023 and 2.25
million in 2019. International leisure traffic,
mainly in the Atlantic and Latin regions,
drove much of the strength during the year.
In the business segment, activity increased
but never displayed a recovery surge as
leisure traffic had done previously.
Consistent with reduced business travel,
reports indicated that office occupancy rates
in major metro areas remained at about half
of 2019 levels, where they had been for more
than a year.
The overall increase in activity supported
industry employment during 2024 after a
slowdown in 2023. According to the Bureau
of Transportation Statistics (BTS), airline
employment rose during the year with an
average increase of about 1,400 jobs per
month, not far below the pre-pandemic rate
in 2019 of 1,500 per month. At year end,
employment was 66,000 higher than in
December 2019 and the staffing issues of
previous years had largely dissipated.
Air cargo activity pulled back from the boost
it received during the pandemic, consistent
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
$14.7 billion – a number approaching the
average profit of $22.1 billion over the five
years ending in FY2019 but not beginning to
recover the $58 billion in combined losses in
2020 and 2021. As with operations,
profitability was uneven throughout the year
as combined profits were just $26 million
during the March quarter. On the other hand,
strong activity during the June quarter
generated profits of $7.7 billion that rivalled
pre-pandemic highs.
Attrition rates were returning to normal,
regional carriers had the crews needed to
build back operations, and some carriers
were pausing hiring. The FAA increased its
hiring of air traffic controllers as it worked to
eliminate shortages at some facilities. In
FY2024, the FAA met its hiring goal of 1,800
controllers, bringing the total number in
training to about 3,400.
In FY2024, system traffic as measured by
RPMs grew 9.1 percent from the previous
year while system enplanements rose 7.0
percent and were 7.6 above 2019 levels.
Domestic RPMs were 5.5 percent higher
while enplanements were up 5.9 percent.
International RPMs increased by 18.4
percent after increasing by more than 36
percent in 2023, while enplanements rose by
15.6 percent – the relative difference due to
the pickup in long-haul Atlantic markets.
Despite being hampered by constraints,
system ASM grew faster than RPMs, up 9.9
percent with domestic ASM growing 6.0
percent and international up 20.3 percent. As
a result, the system-wide load factor fell 0.7
percent to 83.1 percent.
The general aviation industry continued its
growth in CY2024 with an increase of 3.1
percent in deliveries of U.S. manufactured
aircraft from the previous year (22.5 percent
above its 2019 levels), Deliveries of piston
aircraft were up by 5.4 percent while turbine
deliveries were up by 0.4 percent (business
jet segment of turbines were up by 4.1
percent). Global billings increased by 14.3
percent to $26.7 billion (13.7 percent above
2019 levels), however specific figures for
U.S. factory billings were not available as of
the publication date of this report.
Total operations in 2024 at FAA and contract
towers increased by 3.6 percent compared to
2023, the fourth consecutive year of growth.
Air carrier activity increased by 5.5 percent,
exceeding pre-COVID (2019) levels, while
air taxi operations rose by 4.3 percent. General aviation activity increased by 3.5 percent
and military activity was down by 11.2 percent. Activity at large and medium hubs rose
by 4.1 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively,
while small and non-hub airport activity rose
by 4.2 percent in 2024 compared to the prior
year.
System nominal yields fell in 2024, down 2.9
percent after rising 8.2 percent in 2023. Several factors contributed, primarily the addition
of excess capacity in lower yielding leisure
markets (Florida, Caribbean). On the demand side, consumers were eager to travel
as demand remained robust and, in aggregate, tolerated the fare increases.
With the surge in activity during the year,
financial results improved as well. Data for
FY2024 shows that the reporting passenger
carriers had a combined operating profit of
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Glossary of Acronyms
Acronym
AAM
ANG
ARP
ASMs
AST
ATC
ATO
ATP
AUVSI
BVLOS
CAPS
CBP
CFR
COAs
CORSIA
CRS
CY
DARPA
DHS
DoD
DoE
DoI
EIS
EMS
eVTOL
FAA
FRIA
FY
GA
GAMA
GC
GDP
ICAO
IFR
IMF
ISS
LAANC
LCC
LSA
lUAS
NAS
NASA
NDAA
NOTAM
NPRM
PCE
.
Term
Advanced Air Mobility
FAA Office of NextGen
FAA Office of Airports
Available Seat Miles
FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation
Air Traffic Control
FAA Air Traffic Organization
Air Transport Pilot
Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International
Beyond Visual Line of Sight
COA Application Processing System
Customs and Border Patrol
Code of Federal Regulations
Certification of Authorizations
Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation
Commercial Resupply Services
Calendar Year
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
Department of Homeland Security
Department of Defense
Department of Energy
Department of Interior
Entry Into Service
Emergency Medical Services
Electric Vertical Take-off and Landing
Federal Aviation Administration
FAA-Recognized Identification Areas
Fiscal Year
General Aviation
General Aviation Manufacturers Association
Grand Challenge
Gross Domestic Product
International Civil Aviation Organization
Instrument Flight Rules
International Monetary Fund
International Space Station
Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability
Low-Cost Carriers
Light Sport Aircraft
Large Unmanned Aircraft System(s)
National Airspace System
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Defense Authorization Act
Notices to Airmen
Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking
Personal Consumption Expenditure
7
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
PDARS
RAC
RLV
RP
RPA
RPMs
RTMs
sUAS
SpaceX
TRACON
TRB
TSA
UAM
UAS
UASFM
USD
VFR
Performance Data Analysis and Reporting Systems
Refiners’ Acquisition Cost
Reusable Launch Vehicle
Remote Pilot
Remote Pilot Authorization
Revenue Passenger Miles
Revenue Ton Miles
Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s)
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
Terminal Radar Approach Control
Transportation Research Board
Transportation Security Administration
Urban Air Mobility
Unmanned Aircraft System(s)
UAS facility maps
United States Dollar
Visual Flight Rules
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Acknowledgements
This document was prepared by the Forecast and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100),
Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Roger Schaufele and Michael Lukacs.
Special thanks to Roger Schaufele for his many years of service to the FAA and developing the
Aerospace Forecast. Roger retired in 2025 after nearly 25 years of excellence in aviation
forecasting.
The following staff may be contacted for further information about their respective sections:
Section
Contact Name
Phone Number
Economic Environment
Jonathan Corning
(202) 267-8388
Commercial Air Carriers
Jonathan Corning
(202) 267-8388
Cheryl Miner
(202) 267-1851
General Aviation
H. Anna Barlett
(202) 267-4070
FAA Workload Measures
Emma Place
(202) 267-0191
Commercial Fleet
Jonathan Corning
(202) 267-8388
Commercial Space
Cheryl Miner
(202) 267-1851
Unmanned Aircraft Systems
Michael Lukacs
(202) 267-9641
Dipasis Bhadra
(202) 267-9027
Gavin Ekins
(202) 267-4735
Darin Galyer
(202) 267-8906
Samuel Pascoe
(202) 267-7526
Emma Place
(202) 267-0191
APO Websites
•
•
Forecasts and
Statistical publications
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/
APO databases
http://aspm.faa.gov
9
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
FAA Aerospace Forecasts
Fiscal Years 2025-2045
10
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Economic Environment
population that slows labor force growth and
contributes to the decline in the participation
rate.
In 2024, global real GDP expanded but continued its gradual deceleration from the spike
in the second year of the pandemic. GDP
surged by 6.4 percent in 2021 but slowed to
2.7 percent in 2024, a few tenths slower than
the average over the decade prior to the pandemic. During the pandemic, inflation spiked,
and government deficits swelled, conditions
that monetary and fiscal authorities have
worked to combat with higher interest rates
and reduced spending – efforts that have restrained economic growth. Global GDP is expected to ease further in 2025 to 2.5 percent
due to still-elevated interest rates, before
edging up a couple of tenths to approach its
long-term trend rate.
Compared to the U.S., real GDP growth in
the European Union plus U.K. is
considerably weaker in 2024 at 0.9 percent
and again at 1.1 percent in 2025. From there,
growth bumps up to 1.5 percent before
settling to its trend rate of about 1.3 percent.
Aggressive deficit reduction efforts, high
interest rates and population growth that
turns negative in 2025 all dampen GDP
growth.
In Japan, owing to sluggish consumption and
exports, GDP declined by a slight 0.1 percent
in 2024. Growth strengthens to 1.0 percent in
2025 with increased consumption from
elevated wage growth and moderating
inflation, although exports remain under
pressure. Trend growth rates of 0.8 percent
resume in the second half of the decade as
the country’s longstanding problems of a
shrinking labor force and aging population
persist, though partially offset by some
productivity increases.
In the U.S., real GDP growth slows from 2.9
percent in FY2024 to 2.1 percent in FY2025
and 1.7 percent in FY2026. This “soft
landing” scenario projected by S&P Global
results from a combination of still-high
interest rates, fading impacts from COVID
relief measures, and slowing growth of
household wealth. Accompanying slowing
growth, unemployment begins to rise, with
rates increasing from 3.9 percent in FY2024
to 4.4 percent, 4.7 percent and then 4.8
percent in the three subsequent years. This
restrains demand but also inflation which
allows the Federal Reserve to lower interest
rates steadily through the end of the decade.
Dampened demand, however, shows up in
restrained consumer spending which grows
2.7 percent in FY2024, 2.6 percent in
FY2025 and 1.7 percent in FY2026 before
returning to trend at over 2 percent. After FY
2026 through the end of the forecast, GDP
growth averages 1.7 percent per year and
the unemployment rate stabilizes at 4.2
percent. As with other advanced economies,
U.S. GDP growth is hindered by an aging
Although China’s GDP growth remains
relatively strong, its long-term slowing
continued in 2024 with growth of 5.0 percent
that followed a rate of 5.2 percent the
previous year. The slowdown is expected to
extend through the forecast horizon with a
rate of 3.9 percent in 2035 and 3.1 percent in
2045. Contributing factors include a
shrinking population, declining returns on
infrastructure investments, excess supply in
the housing market and sluggish domestic
demand.
Among large emerging markets, Brazil’s
economy sees growth slow in 2025 to 2.3
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FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Productivity losses from the withdrawal of
foreign companies and investment also
contribute to the slowdown. Finally, India’s
strong expansion in both the manufacturing
and services sectors was tempered in 2024
to 6.5 percent due to reduced government
investment and the central bank’s policy
tightening. In the medium-term, declining
contributions from the public sector will be
offset by favorable demographics including
strong consumer spending from growing
middle-income
households,
increasing
contributions from the service sectors, and
undeveloped natural resources.
percent due to restrictive monetary policy
and a contraction in the labor market. Longer
term, Brazil’s economy benefits from its large
domestic market and abundant natural
resources but is restrained by high interest
rates and large fiscal deficits. Russian
growth rose in 2024 to 4.1 percent from
wartime government spending but easing
consumption and a cooling labor market are
expected to slow growth in 2025 to 2.6
percent. Growth eases steadily to end the
decade at 2.0 percent as the emigration of
skilled professionals and military age people
adds to downward demographic trends.
World Economic Growth in 2024
Annual Percent Change
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
6.5
5.0
4.1
4.0
3.2
3.0
2.7
2.7
2.0
0.8
1.0
0.7
0.0
-0.1
-1.0
India
China
Russia
Brazil
U.S.
World
U.K.
Eurozone
Japan
Source: S&P Global
Eastern Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
Growth in the more mature economies (1.5
percent a year) will be lower than the global
trend with the fastest rates in the U.S.
followed by Europe. Growth in Japan is
forecast to be very slow at 0.7 percent a year
reflecting deep structural issues associated
with a shrinking and aging population.
S&P Global forecasts world real GDP to grow
at 2.5 percent a year between 2025 and
2045. Emerging markets, at 3.7 percent a
year, are forecast to grow faster than the
global average but at lower rates than in the
early 2000’s. Asia (excluding Japan), led by
India and China, is projected to have the
fastest growth followed by Latin America,
12
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Asia Leads Global Economic Growth
(annual GDP percent growth 2025-2045)
Asia ex. China & Japan
4.0
China
3.8
Latin America
2.8
M.E. & N. Africa
2.7
Emerging Europe
2.6
World
2.5
U.S.
1.7
Eurozone
1.2
Japan
0.7
Source: S&P Global, Dec 2024 Comparative World Overview; APO-100 calculations
to increase due to growing global demand
and higher costs of extraction. S&P Global
forecasts U.S. refiner's acquisition cost of
crude to rise to $99 per barrel at the end of
the forecast horizon.
Oil held steady at about $79 per barrel in
2023 and 2024 but is expected to decline in
2025 and 2026 as sluggish global demand
combines with increasing supply. Over the
long-run, S&P Global expects the price of oil
$ Per Barrel of Oil, nominal
U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
2000
2005
Source: S&P Global
2010
2015
2020
2025
Fiscal Year
13
2030
2035
2040
2045
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
U.S. Airlines
Domestic Market
Mainline and regional carriers 1 offer domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional carrier international service is
confined to the border markets in Canada,
Mexico, and the Caribbean.
controllers were hired, in 2024 that number
rose to 1,811 and in 2025, the plan is for
2,000, the most in over a decade. All these
issues will be slow to reverse and weigh on
the forecast of capacity production for the
next three to five years, or possibly longer.
Although the public health emergency
caused by the pandemic officially ended in
2023 and most measures of aviation activity
had returned to 2019’s levels by last year, impacts were still being felt by carriers and are
expected to continue through the end of the
decade.
The pandemic altered the demand side as
well, with many of those impacts still evolving. Leisure traveler demand surged after the
pandemic and is expected to continue as the
main driver, although travelers have shown a
clear preference for premium offerings and
carriers are adapting cabins to claim more of
these higher-yielding passengers. Whether
this trend continues in coming years is something carriers will monitor closely. And while
the pandemic caused a wave of blended leisure and business trips that altered peak
day-of-week and seasonal patterns, they
have started to return to pre-pandemic
norms. Unlike leisure trips, business trips
have grown slowly, a factor that is likely to
continue in the near term especially since inoffice work remains below pre-pandemic levels and is also increasing.
On the supply side, materials shortages,
lower worker productivity and manufacturing
missteps have slowed aircraft production,
hindering carriers’ ability to add more, and
more efficient, aircraft. As airframers are
holding sizable order books, the delivery delays will cascade out through the end of the
decade. Besides constraining expansion
plans, these delays will impact profitability as
carriers hold on to older, less efficient aircraft
and aircraft that are poorly sized for current
market needs. Pilot shortages were another
constraint to expansion that emerged during
the pandemic, but these have largely been
resolved.
Also constraining supply, under-staffing at
some Air Traffic Control (ATC) facilities may,
under certain circumstances, limit the number of aircraft that can be handled in those
places. This will be slow to correct although
FAA is accelerating efforts. In 2023, 1,512
Higher airfares have already resulted from
increased labor expenses necessary to
attract and retain workers and this elevated
spending is expected to be permanent.
Labor unions representing pilots and flight
attendants
have
found
considerable
leverage in the post-pandemic environment,
making cost increases, and therefore fare
increases, an industry-wide phenomenon.
Passengers have been largely undeterred,
Mainline carriers are defined as those providing
service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more
seats. Regionals are defined as those providing
service primarily via aircraft with 89 or fewer seats
and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the
mainline carriers.
1
14
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
percent of domestic capacity, down from
11.1 percent in 2019, a result of both the shift
in demand and difficulty supplying capacity
as flight crews moved up to higher paying
mainline jobs. In terms of traffic, regionals
saw similar declines, dropping to 7.2 percent
of RPM in 2024 compared to 10.4 percent in
2019. The deviations in 2024 have improved
slightly from 2023 and are expected to revert
over time as travel patterns and airline operations continue the slow recovery to more
normal conditions.
allowing some carriers to add additional fare
or fee increases that are helping to pay down
debt incurred during the pandemic. Until debt
returns to more typical levels, it will act as an
additional restraint on investment and
expansion.
During the first years of the pandemic, regional carriers suffered similar consequences of COVID-19 as mainline carriers.
However, the impacts in recent years have
differed. In 2024, regionals provided just 7.4
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers
Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group
Enplanements (millions)
1,600
1,400
210
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
159
654
127
94
370
2019
2020
613
2022
147
130
127
731
747
2024
2025
844
2030
Fiscal Year
Mainline
15
Regional
167
964
2035
188
1,084
2040
1,212
2045
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers
Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield
25.0
Revenue Per Mile (¢)
24.3
20.0
15.0
13.4
11.6
12.8
19.1
17.5
16.2
15.6
14.1
10.0
22.5
20.9
13.0
14.1
15.4
16.8
18.1
19.6
11.0
5.0
0.0
2019
2020
2022
2024
2025
Fiscal Year
Mainline
2030
2035
2040
2045
Regionals
over the decade from 1997 to 2007 and although it slowed more recently to an increase
of 17 percent in the ten years ending in 2019,
it is a trend that is expected to continue. A
consequence of this drive to replace 50-seat
regional jets with more fuel-efficient 70-seat
jets is that capital costs have increased. The
move to the larger aircraft will prove beneficial in coming years, however, since their unit
costs are lower.
Regional carriers have less leverage with the
mainline carriers than they have had in the
past as the mainline carriers have negotiated
contracts that are more favorable for their operational and financial bottom lines. As mainline carriers have cut service to smaller cities
since the pandemic, regional partners have
been most affected. Furthermore, mainline
carriers successfully reduced costs by offering voluntary retirements to flight crews but
as activity rebounded, they drew replacements from the ranks of the regional carriers,
exacerbating their pre-pandemic pilot shortages. Shortages of senior regional captains
are likely to persist through next year due to
the time required for training and experience.
Mainline carriers have also been increasing
seats per aircraft flown although, unlike that
for the regionals, the trend had been
accelerating up until 2019. From 2009-2019,
the measure grew by an average of 0.9
percent per year. Then during the pandemic,
seats per aircraft jumped around, ranging
from an increase of 3.0 percent in 2021 to a
0.4 percent decrease in 2022 as carriers first
flew some of their idle long-haul international
aircraft on domestic routes and then
A trend for regionals that was largely unaffected by the pandemic is the longstanding
increase in the number of seats per aircraft.
This measure rose by more than 55 percent
16
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
One source of ancillary revenue, change
fees, was broadly scrapped in 2020. As traveler plans were forced to change due to
COVID-19-related restrictions, airlines began dropping fees for itinerary changes in
many ticket classes. As a share of total passenger revenue, cancellation fees dropped
from about 2 percent in 2019 and prior years
to under 0.6 percent in 2024. Most airlines
have made the elimination of change fees a
permanent move, although it applies only to
tickets for the main cabin and above. Baggage fees remain a solid source of revenue
at 4.0 percent of passenger revenue in 2024,
the same as in 2019.
reallocated them to more typical markets.
That aircraft positioning seemed to normalize
in 2024 when seats per aircraft grew 0.3
percent, about their 30-year average.
Besides the operational adjustments that
carriers use to drive profitability, there are
many less visible strategies that mainly
revolve around passenger segmentation:
categorizing passengers according to their
willingness to pay differing amounts to travel
between the same points. The primary tools
to accomplish this are the revenue
management systems that enable carriers to
price fares optimally for each seat on each
flight. Because they rely on historical data to
make price and schedule predictions, the
unprecedented nature of the collapse in
2020 meant they could provide little
guidance in market, time-of-day or day-ofweek pricing decisions. As demand
stabilized, revenue management systems
became relevant again. Going forward, the
application of artificial intelligence will make
these systems more adaptive and pricing
more dynamic, leading to even more
nuanced segmentation of passengers.
Other methods of segmenting passengers
into more discrete cost categories based on
comfort amenities like seat pitch, leg room,
and power outlets were unaffected by the
pandemic. The offering of Basic Economy
fares has been part of an effort by network
carriers to protect market share in response
to the rapid growth LCCs have achieved in
recent years. Between 2007 and 2019,
network carrier domestic enplanements
increased almost 19 percent, but low-cost
carrier enplanements grew by 39 percent.
RPMs over the same period showed a similar
pattern with network carrier domestic RPMs
up almost 23 percent and LCC RPMs fully 48
percent higher. These longer-term trends
were interrupted in 2020 with enplanements
and RPM dropping across both mainline and
LCC carriers to just over half of 2019 levels.
By 2023, the strength of LCCs became
apparent again as their enplanements and
RPMs had recovered to about 9 percent
above 2019 levels. In 2024, however, the
combination of mainline competition and
excess capacity in domestic markets forced
LCCs and Ultra Low-Cost Carriers (ULCC) to
adapt their marketing strategies. Just as
mainline carriers had used Basic Economy
Yet another continuing trend and method of
passenger segmentation is product differentiation through ancillary sales. Carriers generate ancillary revenues by selling products
and services beyond that of an airplane ticket
to customers. This includes the un-bundling
of services previously included in the ticket
price such as checked bags, on-board
meals, and seat selection, and adding new
services such as boarding priority and internet access. After posting record net profits in
2015, U.S. passenger carrier profits declined
subsequently on rising fuel and labor costs,
and flat yields, but were supported by ancillary revenues. Even in 2020 when profits
turned to staggering losses, this remained a
meaningful source of revenue for carriers.
17
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
preferences to experiences over goods, and
towards premium travel, LCCs and ULCCs
will continue battling directly for network
carrier customers in the medium-term at
least.
fares to capture LCC customers, LCCs and
ULCCs began to use premium offerings to
capture network carrier customers. These
carriers introduced or announced seats with
more legroom, blocked middle seats, rebundled of fares to include some ancillaries,
and added more attractive loyalty programs.
Given the overall shift in consumer
50.0
100.0
40.0
90.0
30.0
80.0
20.0
70.0
10.0
60.0
0.0
50.0
-10.0
40.0
-20.0
30.0
-30.0
20.0
-40.0
10.0
-50.0
2019
0.0
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
Load Factor
Annual Percent Change
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers
Domestic Market
Fiscal Year
ASMs
RPMs
Enplanements
Load Factor (right axis)
International Market
and the first years of the recovery, domestic
activity fell less and recovered faster. But by
2024, domestic enplanements had grown
only 6 percent above 2019's level, while international enplanements showed much
stronger improvement, exceeding 2019 levels by 24 percent. International travel had
Over most of the past decade, the international market has been the growth segment
for U.S. carriers when compared to the mature and much larger U.S. domestic market.
For the ten years ending in 2024, international enplanements grew by 31 percent
while domestic enplanements grew 24 percent. However, during the downturn in 2020
18
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
slower recovery, even as leisure travel
surged. International travel is expected to
show further gains in 2025, supported by the
strong dollar and increased preferences for
overseas trips.
been particularly impacted by border closings, quarantine requirements and other
travel restrictions, as well as the uncertainty
of when requirements might change. However, as restrictions lifted, activity rebounded
sharply. On the domestic side, the fall in business travel contributed to the decline and
Annual Growth Rate (%)
100
U.S. Carriers - Enplanements
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045
Fiscal Year
Domestic Market
19
International Market
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
U.S. Carriers - RPMs
Annual Growth Rate (%)
160
120
80
40
0
-40
-80
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Fiscal Year
Domestic Market
International Market
U.S. Carriers - ASMs
Annual Growth Rate (%)
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033 2037 2041 2045
Fiscal Year
Domestic Market
International Market
percent as aggregate trip lengths grow due
to increasing Atlantic and Pacific activity.
From FY2026-2045, annual growth for ASMs
and RPMs are forecast to grow at 2.7 percent
and 2.8 percent, respectively, while enplanements will grow at a rate of 3.1 percent.
International capacity and demand will see
another year of solid growth in 2025 as the
recovery concludes and rates return to more
typical values in 2026. For FY2025 the annual growth rates for international ASM and
RPM are forecast at 4.1 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively, and enplanements at 3.9
20
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
moderating factors are at work, including
high inflation and interest rates, reduced
global trade, and political stresses. The
European and Japanese economies are
generally seeing slow growth, in part due to
weak trade with Asia, mainly China. Overall,
global conditions appear set to return to a
stable path once the economic environment
improves with looser financial conditions,
diminished risk of recession, and improved
government fiscal positions. Rising oil prices,
however, will create some drag on this
otherwise supportive environment for air
travel demand.
Load factors recovered sharply again in
2023, reaching 83 percent, more than 6
points above the previous year and similar to
2019’s level. However, some overcapacity in
2024 suppressed a further increase and load
factors dropped back to 82 percent. Load
factors are believed to be close to their maximum and projected to rise only slightly
throughout the remainder of the decade to
reach 83 percent at the end of the forecast.
Annual Percent Change
In the long-run, growth of major global
economies will slow from the above-trend
rates of recent, pre-pandemic years. Several
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
2005
U.S. Commercial Air Carriers
International Market
2009
2013
2017
2021
2025
2029
2033
2037
2041
2045
Fiscal Year
ASMs
RPMs
Enplanements
been the slowest and is forecast to be fully
recovered in 2028.
The impact of COVID-19 on travel by region
has varied considerably, as have the recovery paths. Factors affecting the responses by
market are similar to those affecting travel as
a whole: COVID-19 case counts, governmental restrictions, predominant traveler
segments, and macroeconomic conditions.
As a result, enplanements to the Latin region
had fully recovered in 2022, and to the Atlantic region in 2023. The Pacific region has
For U.S. carriers, the Latin region remains
the largest international destination with
more than twice the enplanements of the Atlantic region in 2024, due to its proximity to
the U.S., strong trade ties, and popular leisure destinations. In 2024, Latin region enplanements rose by 13 percent while RPMs
rose 15 percent. Much of the strength was
21
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
over the next 20 years, led by China and
India, enplanements and RPMs over the
period are restrained in part because of
generally low incomes and relatively small
middle classes. Consequently, demand
centers on smaller but wealthier countries
such as Japan and Korea, rather than the
large, faster growing economies.
again driven by leisure traffic heading to
warm weather destinations and the appeal of
nearby foreign locations. Enplanement and
RPM growth are expected to slow substantially in 2025, decelerating to long-term trend
rates. Over the twenty-year period of 20252045, Latin region enplanements are forecast to increase at an average rate of 3.6 percent a year while RPMs grow 3.8 percent a
year.
The Atlantic region ranks in size between the
Latin and Pacific regions, with pre-pandemic
enplanements roughly twice those in the Pacific region and half those in the Latin region.
After contracting in 2015 and 2016, Atlantic
enplanement growth began rising to reach
7.0 percent in 2019. This growth was supported by U.S. demand as well as growth of
Middle East and African markets, even as the
European economies slowed in 2019. In
2020, like the other regions, Atlantic enplanements tumbled and bottomed out in
2021 at 21 percent of 2019's level. Subsequent percentage gains were large, returning
enplanements to 130 percent of 2019 levels
in 2024. Although Western Europe is a mature area with moderate economic growth,
the economically smaller Middle East and Africa areas are expanding rapidly with GDP
growth rates more than twice that of Europe.
As a result, a growing share of the forecast
aviation demand in the Atlantic region is
linked to those two areas, particularly in the
second half of the forecast period. Over the
forecast horizon from 2025 to 2045, enplanements and RPMs in the Atlantic region are
expected to grow at average annual rates of
1.8 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively.
The Pacific region is the smallest in terms of
enplanements which do not yet reflect the
region's emerging markets’ economic growth
and potential for air travel. Enplanements
bottomed out at just 5.8 percent of 2019's
level in 2021 as many countries enforced
stringent travel restrictions, especially China,
a very large market in the region. RPM also
collapsed by a similar amount. In 2022,
enplanements and RPMs came off the 2021
trough and by 2024, recovered to about 83
percent of 2019 levels. In 2025, those
measures of activity are expected to
continue expanding to above 92 percent.
With comparatively slow trend growth, the
region’s enplanements take time to fully
recover to 2019's level but are within 2
percent by 2027 while RPMs are fully
recovered in that year. Growth of RPMs and
enplanements in 2025 will slow to 11
percent, a deceleration from 47 percent in
2024. From FY2026 through the end of the
forecast, Pacific enplanements and RPMs
are forecast to grow at average rates of 2.6
percent and 2.7 percent, respectively.
Although the region is forecast to have the
strongest economic growth of any region
United States and the Atlantic, Latin, Pacific,
and Canada Transborder regions grew
9.3 percent to total 266.9 million passengers,
marking the return to pre-COVID passenger
Total Passengers to/from the U.S. on American and Foreign Flag Carriers
Actual Results:
During CY2024, total passengers flown on
U.S. and Foreign Flag carriers between the
22
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
levels. 2 Passenger levels steadily improved
after the 73.4 percent drop posted in
CY2020, with growth of 47.4 percent in
CY2021, 97.3 percent in CY2022, 25.0 percent in CY2023, and 9.3 percent in CY2024.
Comparing the share of total passengers by
world region for CY2024 shows the Latin region with the largest share at 38.5 percent
(107.3 million passengers). The Atlantic region is second in terms of passenger share.
During CY2024, the Atlantic region held a
35.0 percent share of total passengers (93.3
million passengers). Ranking three and four
were the Pacific region with a 12.7 percent
share (34.7 million passengers), and Canada
Transborder region with an 11.8 percent
share (31.5 million passengers).
Although growth in total passengers has
been strong, the path to recovery for the individual regions has been mixed. The Latin
and Atlantic Regions led the recovery, with
the Latin region returning to pre-COVID levels last year (CY2023), followed by the Atlantic region in CY2024.
The percentage growth in passengers from
CY2023 to CY2024, for the four regions
ranked from highest to lowest, was Pacific
(18.0 percent), Canada Transborder
(11.0 percent), Latin (7.7 percent), and Atlantic (7.5 percent). Passenger levels for
CY2019-24 are presented below by world region.
Conversely, the recovery for the Canada
Transborder and Pacific regions has not
been as robust. Passenger levels for both
regions endured two consecutive years of
post-COVID decline. 3 At the end of CY2024,
Canada Transborder passenger levels were
99 percent of pre-COVID levels and are forecast to surpass that mark during 2025.
Passengers (Millions)
Recovery for the Pacific region remains elusive. Passenger levels for this region remain
30 percent below pre-COVID levels and remain below until CY2027.
125
100
75
50
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Atlantic
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
0
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
25
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
The chart below shows the tempo at which
the individual world regions have recovered/are recovering to pre-COVID passenger levels.
Recovery to Pre-COVID Passenger Levels
Indexed to 2019 (by World Region)
Region
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Atlantic
100 19.6 27.2 80.7 98.0
Latin
100 37.7 74.1 99.2 112.3
Pacific
100 21.6 10.0 34.8 67.2
Canada
100 21.9 15.1 65.3 89.1
Total
100 26.6 39.2 77.3 96.6
Passengers by World Region
CY2019-2024
Latin
Pacific
Canada
Notably, the U.S. citizen share of passengers
travelling between the U.S. and three of the
world regions has been increasing vis-a-vis
foreign citizen passenger share. The increase in U.S. citizen passenger share may
be indicative of a faster return to pre-COVID
activity in the U.S., both in terms of economic
2024
105.4
121.0
79.2
99.0
105.5
the terror attacks (down 73.4 percent vs.14.0 percent, respectively).
2
The recovery of passengers to pre-COVID and
pre-911 levels took five years, although the drop
in passenger levels due to covid was far more severe than the drop in passengers resulting from
Passenger levels for the Atlantic and Latin regions started to rebound in CY2021, one year
after the covid downturn.
3
23
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
growth of 4.8 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively. Canada is forecast to grow slowest with growth of 3.9 percent.
growth and the ending of the COVID era restrictions on mobility. Comparing CY2019 to
CY2024, the Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific regions each showed an increase in U.S. citizens as a share of total passengers. To the
contrary, U.S. citizen passenger shares in
the Canada Transborder region decreased.
Passengers (Millions)
125
The U.S. citizen share of passengers in the
Atlantic region increased 6.4 points (going
from 50.8 percent in CY2019 to 57.2 percent
in CY2024). In the Latin region, U.S. citizen
share of passengers increased 4.9 points
(going from 58.6 percent in CY2019 to 63.5
percent in CY2024). In the Pacific region,
U.S. citizen passenger share increased 10.0
points (going from 34.8 percent to 44.8 percent. To the contrary, U.S. citizen passenger
shares in the Canada Transborder region
posted a slight decline of 0.2 points (going
from 34.5 percent in CY2019 to 34.3 percent
in CY2024).
Passengers (Millions)
80
U.S.
Aliens
20
2019 2024
Atlantic
2019 2024
Latin
2019 2024
Pacific
75
97.8
112.3
50
25
0
38.0
Atlantic
Latin
32.8
Pacific Canada
The Pacific region is forecast to grow fastest
with average annual growth of 3.6 percent
over the forecast period, totaling 72.4 million
passengers by CY2045. The faster growth
for this region partially reflects a drawn-out
recovery from pre-COVID levels compared
to the Atlantic, Latin, and Canada Transborder regions.
40
0
100
Over the 20-year forecast horizon, international passengers for the combined regions
are forecast to grow an average of 3.1 percent annually, going from 266.9 million passengers in CY2024 to 502.3 million in
CY2045. Growth during the first half of the
forecast period is 3.4 percent versus 2.7 percent during the last half. Some of the factors
that may impact future international air travel
demand include demographics, travel costs,
technological advancements, consumer behavior, and globalization.
Passengers by Citizenry: U.S. vs. Aliens
60
CY2025 Passenger Forecast (Millions)
2019 2024
Canada
Forecast Results:
For CY2025, combined passengers for all
four world regions are forecast to grow 5.2
percent over CY2024 levels to 280.8 million
passengers.
Growing at a slightly slower pace is the Latin
region. This region is forecast to grow at an
average annual rate of 3.3 percent, totaling
210.3 million passengers by the end of the
forecast period.
Of the four regions, the Pacific is forecast to
grow fastest with year-over-year growth of
9.3 percent for CY 2025. Growing at a slower
pace are the Atlantic and Latin regions, with
The Atlantic and Canada Transborder regions are forecast to grow at more modest
rates, with average annual growth rates of
2.8 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively,
24
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
in CY2024); Pacific region passenger share
is forecast to be 14.4 percent (up from 13.0
percent in CY2024); and Canada Transborder region passenger share is forecast to be
10.6 percent in CY2045 (down from 11.8 percent in CY2024).
over the 20-year forecast period.
By
CY2045, Atlantic region passengers are
forecast to total 166.5 million and Canada
Transborder passengers are forecast to total
53.0 million.
The chart below compares passenger totals
posted for CY2024 to the CY2045 passenger
forecast.
Total Passengers
CY2024 vs. CY2045
250
Millions
200
0
93.3
2024
30%
2025
107.3
72.4
Pacific
31.5
2025
41.9%
33.2%
20%
0%
Latin
40.2%
35.0%
10%
34.7
Atlantic
2024
40%
166.5
100
50
50%
210.3
150
% Share of Total Passengers
CY2024 vs. CY2045
53.0
13.0% 14.4%
Atlantic
Latin
Pacific
11.8% 10.6%
Canada
On an individual basis, the countries posting
the top three passenger levels in CY2024
were Mexico, Canada and United Kingdom,
with passenger totals of 40.8 million, 31.5
million, and 21.2 million passengers, respectively. These three countries retain their
ranking at the end of the forecast period.
Canada
The ranking of regions by share of total passengers is forecast to remain stable – with
the CY2024 rankings holding through
CY2045. Going from largest passenger
share to smallest share are the Latin, Atlantic, Pacific, and Canada Transborder regions.
Ranking 4, 5, and 6 in CY2024 was Germany
(11.0 million passengers), Dominican Republic (10.9 million passengers), and Japan
(9.9 million passengers). By the end of the
forecast period, Dominican Republic and
Germany trade rankings, while France replaces Japan to be ranked number 6.
While the overall rankings for passenger
share remain steady over the forecast horizon, two regions are forecast to have an increase in passenger share (Latin and Pacific) while the other two regions (Atlantic and
Transborder) show a decrease in passenger
share. The Latin and Pacific regions gain 1.6
points and 1.4 points of passenger share, respectively, while the Atlantic and Canada
Transborder regions lose 1.9 points and 1.2
points, respectively.
Of the countries within the Latin region, the
top three as measured by CY2024 passenger totals remain as the top three at the end
of the forecast period. These three countries
are Mexico, Dominican Republic, and Columbia. At the end of the forecast period passenger levels are forecast to be 77.9 million
for Mexico; 26.1 million for the Dominican
Republic; and 14.0 million for Colombia.
By the end of the 20-year forecast period, the
Latin region is forecast to have a 41.8 percent share of total passengers (up from 40.2
percent in CY2024). The Atlantic region
share of passengers is forecast to be 33.1
percent in CY2045 (down from 35.0 percent
25
Passengers (Millions)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
The countries with the highest average annual growth rate in the Atlantic region over
the forecast period are Turkey (4.4 percent),
Qatar (4.0 percent), and United Arab Emirates (3.9 percent).
Select Passenger Forecasts:
Latin Region
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2024
2045
Atlantic Region Average Annual
Growth by Country: CY2024-45
5%
4%
Correspondingly, those countries within the
Latin region with the highest average annual
percentage growth over the 20-year forecast
period are Brazil (4.7 percent), the Dominican Republic (4.2 percent), and Colombia
(4.0 percent).
4%
4.2% 4.0%
3%
3.1%
2%
1%
Passengers (Millions)
Passengers (Millions)
In the Atlantic region, the countries with the
top three CY2024 passenger totals were the
United Kingdom, Germany, and France.
These three countries retain their rankings at
the end of the forecast period with CY2045
passenger totals of 34.0 million for the United
Kingdom, 21.7 million for Germany and 18.6
million for France.
40
30
2.3%
15
Select Passenger Forecasts:
Pacific Region
2024
2045
10
5
0
Countries forecast to have the highest average annual growth in the Pacific region are
China (9.4 percent), Hong Kong (4.2 percent), and India (4.0 percent). China growth
is coming off a depressed base, reflecting the
slow recovery from the COVID downturn.
Select Passenger Forecasts:
Atlantic Region
2024
3.2%
2.2%
The top three countries in the Pacific region
as measured by CY2024 passenger totals
were Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. At
the end of the forecast period China ranks
one (14.7 million passengers), Japan ranks
two (13.7 million passengers), and South Korea ranks three (13.4 million passengers).
0.2%
0%
2.8%
0%
3.0%
2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6%
3.9% 4.0%
1.9%
1%
4.7%
3.5%
2.8% 2.6% 2.9%
2%
Latin Region Average Annual Growth
by Country: CY2024-45
5%
4.4%
3%
2045
20
10
0
26
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
10%
8%
the U.S. and the four world regions on U.S.
and foreign flag carriers.
Pacific Region - Average Annual Growth
by Country: CY2024-45
9.4%
4%
2%
0%
1.5%
3.0%
2.3%
4.2%
4.0%
2.4%
Passengers (Millions)
6%
3.9%
The chart below presents historical and forecast data for passengers travelling between
500
400
Passengers by World Region
(U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers)
ATL*
LTN
PAC
Canada
300
200
100
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
*Includes the regions of Middle-East and Africa
27
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Cargo
U.S. air carriers flew 48.0 billion RTMs in
2024, a small increase from 47.3 billion in
2023. During the pandemic, households
made huge changes in spending patterns,
shifting out of services and into goods, goods
that were often shipped by air. As a result,
RTMs surged to 20 percent above 2019’s
level by 2022. Consumer spending then
began to revert in 2023, bringing system
RTMs down to 10 percent above 2019’s
level. Domestic cargo RTMs rose 3.1 percent
to 18.1 billion in 2024 while international
RTMs grew just 0.5 percent to 29.9 billion. Air
cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers
averaged 78.7 percent of the total in the
years leading up to 2020 but then spiked to
88.0 percent in 2020 and 2021, with
passenger carriers flying the remainder.
Since 2021, and the return of passenger
flights and their belly-hold capacity, the share
of air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers
has dropped to 83.7 percent in 2024. Total
RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers fell 0.9
percent in 2024 while total RTMs flown by
passenger carriers jumped by 15.7 percent.
Air cargo traffic includes both domestic and
international freight/express and mail. The
demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves
in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in
dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Cargo carriers face price competition from alternative
shipping modes such as trucks, container
ships, and rail cars, as well as from other air
carriers.
Historically, air cargo activity tracks with
GDP. Other factors that affect air cargo
growth are fuel price volatility, movement of
real yields, globalization, and trade. The forecasts of revenue ton miles (RTMs) rely on
several assumptions specific to the cargo industry. First, security restrictions on air cargo
transportation will remain in place. Second,
most of the shift from air to ground transportation has occurred. Finally, long-term cargo
activity depends heavily on economic
growth.
The forecasts of RTMs derive from models
that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of
domestic cargo RTMs use real U.S. GDP as
the primary driver of activity. Projections of
international cargo RTMs depend on growth
in world and regional GDP, adjusted for inflation. FAA forecasts the distribution of RTMs
between passenger and all-cargo carriers
based on an analysis of historic trends in
shares, changes in industry structure, and
market assumptions.
After rising by 1.5 percent in 2024, total
RTMs are expected to grow 4.2 percent in
2025 as the normalization of consumer
demand for goods versus services
concludes and air cargo is again governed
by economic activity. Buoyed by steady U.S.
and world economic growth in the long term,
FAA projects total RTMs to increase at an
average annual rate of 2.9 percent over the
forecast period (from 2025 to 2045).
U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic
spans four regions consisting of Atlantic,
Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other International.’
Domestic cargo RTMs from 2025 to 2045 are
forecast to increase at an average annual
rate of 2.0 percent. In 2024, all-cargo carriers
carried 93.3 percent of domestic cargo
28
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
RTMs. The all-cargo share is forecast to remain roughly flat in the medium-term as passenger flights return to the system. In the
long-term, the all-cargo share rises only
slightly to 94.5 percent by 2045 based on increases in capacity for all-cargo carriers.
passenger
carriers.
The
share
of
international cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo
carriers fell to 78.0 percent in 2024 and is
forecast to decline in the near term before
gradually increasing in line with historical
trends and ending at 82.3 percent in 2045.
International cargo RTMs rose slightly in
2024 with the normalization of spending and
as international passenger flights returned,
RTMs shifted away from all-cargo carriers.
With the post-pandemic return of passenger
flights, international RTMs on passenger
aircraft jumped 19.1 percent in 2024 and is
expected to grow rapidly in 2025, increasing
about 8 percent, but then slowing down to
just over 3 percent in 2026. Over the same
years, all-cargo RTMs will grow about 4.5
percent per year as some tonnage is lost to
Following the period of recovery and readjustment, growth for both types of carriers returns to long-run trend rates. For the forecast
period (2025-2045), international cargo
RTMs are expected to increase an average
of 3.3 percent a year based on projected
growth in world GDP. The Other International
region has the fastest annual RTM growth
(4.0 percent), followed by Pacific (3.5 percent), Atlantic (2.6 percent), and Latin America region (1.7 percent).
29
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
General Aviation
The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours
flown, and utilization rates 4 from the General
Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA
Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the
GA fleet and activity. Since the survey is
conducted on a calendar year (CY) basis and
the records are collected by CY, the GA
forecast is done by CY. Forecasts of new
aircraft deliveries, using data from General
Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA),
together with assumptions of retirement
rates, generate growth rates of the fleet by
aircraft categories, which are applied to the
GA Survey fleet estimates. The forecasts are
carried out for “active aircraft,” 5 not total
aircraft. The FAA’s general aviation forecasts
also rely on discussions with industry experts
conducted at industry meetings, including the
Transportation Research Board (TRB)
meetings of Business Aviation and Civil
Helicopter Subcommittees conducted twice a
year in January and May or June.
piston rotorcraft, light-sport aircraft (LSA),
and experimental aircraft were up by 5.9,
12.8, and 7.3 percent, respectively. Total
hours flown were estimated to be 28.6 million
in 2023, up 6.0 percent from the previous
year (11.7 percent above 2019 levels), and
were at their highest level since 2000. Flight
hours increased in the experimental, singleengine and multi-engine piston, rotorcraft,
and light-sport aircraft (LSA) categories, up
24.7, 12.4, 4.2, 4.7, and 53.5 percent,
respectively. Hours flown by turbojets fell
11.6 percent while hours flown by turboprops
and other aircraft (gliders and lighter than air)
were down 0.2 and 13.4 percent,
respectively.
In 2024, deliveries of the general aviation
aircraft manufactured in the U.S. increased
to 2,169 -- 3.1 percent above CY 2023 and
22.5 percent higher than their 2019 level.
Deliveries of fixed-wing piston aircraft were
up by 5.4 percent with single-engine piston
aircraft up 5.0 percent, while the much
smaller segment of multi-engine piston
deliveries saw a 21.7 percent increase.
Business jet deliveries increased by 4.1
percent, but a 3.4 percent decline in
turboprop deliveries resulted in only a 0.4
percent increase in fixed wing turbine
shipments. While the GAMA statistics for
factory net billings in 2024 were not available
for the U.S. manufactured GA aircraft yet
(they were $11.3 billion in 2023), global
billings increased in 2024 by 14.3 percent to
$26.7 billion.
The results of the 2023 GA Survey, the latest
available, were consistent with the results of
surveys
conducted
since
major
improvements to the survey methodology
were introduced in 2004. The active GA fleet
was estimated to be 214,222 aircraft in 2023
(2.2 percent higher than 2022). Fleet
increases were observed in all categories of
piston and turbine aircraft with the exception
of gliders and the lighter than air category
(together forming the other aircraft). Singleengine and multi-engine pistons were up by
1.1 percent, turbine aircraft, including
rotorcraft, were up by 2.3 percent, while
4 In this context, flight hours refer to the total
hours flown by a certain type of aircraft (i.e., single-engine piston, turboprop, experimental) during the survey year as inferred by the responses
to the survey for the total of active GA aircraft;
utilization rate is average hours flown by an aircraft of a certain type.
5 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one
hour during the survey year.
30
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
General Aviation
U.S. Manufactured Aircraft Shipments and Billings
Shipments
3,500
$30
3,000
$25
2,500
$20
2,000
$15
1,500
$10
1,000
$5
500
Source: GAMA
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
$0
Calendar Year
Global Shipments
Shipments of U.S. Manufactured Aircraft
U.S. Billings ($ Billion)
Global Billings ($ Billion)
GAMA also reported that rotorcraft deliveries
increased at a global level in 2024 in both
piston and turbine segments by 0.5 percent
and 9.6 percent, respectively, for an overall
7.6 percent increase.
the fixed-wing piston fleet are offset by increases in fixed-wing turbine, rotorcraft, experimental, and light sport aircraft fleets. The
total active general aviation fleet grows at a
rate of 0.5 percent annually.
These current conditions indicate continuing
growth in the GA sector. The active fleet in
2023 was 1.5 percent above the 2019 level
and at its highest since 2010, with the turbine
aircraft, including rotorcraft, experimental,
LSA and other aircraft (gliders and lighter
than air vehicles) categories above their
2019 levels. The long-term outlook for general aviation, driven by turbine aircraft activity, remains stable. The active general aviation fleet, which showed an increase of 2.2
percent between 2022 and 2023, is forecast
to increase from its 2023 level of 214,222 aircraft to 238,350 by 2045, as the declines in
The more expensive and sophisticated
turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is
projected to grow by 20,055 aircraft between
2023 and 2045 to total 54,685, displaying an
average annual growth rate of 2.1 percent
during this period, with the turbojet fleet
increasing 2.7 percent a year. Cumulative
growth for the turbine-powered fleet is 57.9
percent from 2023 to 2045. The growth in
U.S. GDP and corporate profits are catalysts
for the growth in the turbine fleet.
The largest segment of the fleet, fixed wing
piston aircraft, is predicted to shrink by 4,450
31
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
of the aging fleet are the drivers of the decline.
aircraft between 2023 and 2045, with an average annual growth rate of -0.1 percent. Unfavorable pilot demographics, overall increasing cost of aircraft ownership, availability of much lower cost alternatives for recreational usage, combined with new aircraft
deliveries not keeping pace with retirements
On the other hand, the smallest category,
light-sport-aircraft (created in 2005), is
forecast to grow by 3.1 percent annually,
adding about 2,860 new aircraft by 2045 to
nearly double its 2023 fleet size of 3,007.
Active General Aviation Aircraft
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2015
2023
2025
2035
2045
Calendar Year
Fixed Wing Turbine
LSA
Fixed Wing Piston
Rotorcraft
Experimental and Other
average of 0.7 percent a year, largely due to
an aging fleet. In 2023, 24.2 percent of the
fixed wing piston aircraft were 60 years old
or older and FAA expects that figure to
increase over the forecast period.
Countering this trend, hours flown by turbine
aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to
increase 2.5 percent yearly between 2023
and 2045. Jet aircraft account for most of the
increase, with hours flown increasing at an
average annual rate of 3.2 percent during
The number of general aviation hours flown
is forecast to grow faster than the active fleet,
increasing an average of 0.8 percent per
year through 2045, compared to a 0.5
percent annual increase in the active fleet.
The growth in hours over the forecast period
totals 19.0 percent, from 28.6 million in 2023
to 34.0 million by 2045, as the newer aircraft
fly more hours each year. Fixed wing piston
hours are forecast to decrease at a slightly
faster rate than the fixed wing piston fleet, an
32
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
this period. The large increases in jet hours
result mainly from the increasing size of the
business jet fleet.
40,000
General Aviation Hours Flown
(in thousands)
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2015
2023
2025
2035
2045
Calendar Year
Fixed Wing Piston
Rotorcraft
Experimental and Other
Fixed Wing Turbine
LSA
infrastructure before large scale use of AAM
can occur. In addition, softening oil prices will
negatively impact oil exploration activity, one
of the leading uses of rotorcraft, resulting in
a slowdown in rotorcraft demand. Taking
these factors into account, the active fleet of
rotorcraft is projected to grow at about the
same rate compared to the previous year’s
forecast, 1.7 percent a year, going from a
total (piston and turbine together) of 10,051
in 2023 to 14,715 in 2045. Rotorcraft hours
are projected to grow by 2.0 percent annually
during this period as the share of the higher
utilization turbine rotorcraft fleet increases
over the forecast period.
Rotorcraft activity, positively impacted by
additional and replacement demand from
Emergency Medical Services (EMS),
firefighting (due to longer and regionally
overlapping fire seasons) and Search and
Rescue operations, contributed to higher
rotorcraft deliveries in 2024. Potential effects
of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM, including
electric vertical take-off and landing-eVTOLs) in the later years of the forecast
period are too uncertain to include in the
forecast yet. Some industry experts suggest
AAM would have a complementary impact to
rotorcraft demand while others argue that the
large size of some of the newly developed
AAM vehicles will necessitate new
33
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
commercial pilot certificates started to increase in 2017 and reached 109,727 in
2024, following a 2.8 percent increase from
2023. The number of ATP certificate holders
increased every year from 2010 through
2019. There was a small decline in the number of certificate holders in both 2020 and
2021 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the decline was more than offset
by an increase in 2022. The number of pilots
holding an ATP certificate has continued to
increase since 2022 and totaled 179,194 in
2024, a 2.9 percent increase from the previous year.
Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is
forecasted to see an increase of 2.2 percent
a year in hours flown, primarily driven by
growth in the fleet.
The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots by
certification categories, using the data compiled by the Administration’s Mike Monroney
Aeronautical Center. There were 848,770
active pilots certificated by FAA at the end of
2024. The number of certificates in all pilot
categories continued to increase except for
the recreational pilot certificates that only 59
pilots carry. The FAA suspended the student
pilot forecast since 2018. The number of student pilot certificates has been affected by a
regulatory change that went into effect in
April 2016 and removed the expiration date
on the new student pilot certificates. The
number of student pilots jumped from
128,501 at the end of 2016 to 149,121 by the
end of 2017, and to 345,495 at the end of
2024. The 2016 rule change generates a cumulative increase in the certificate numbers
and breaks the link between student pilot and
advanced certificate levels of private pilot or
higher. There is not sufficient data to provide
a reliable forecast for the student pilots.
Private pilots continued their increase in
2024, up 2.6 percent from 167,711 in the previous year to 172,012. Sport pilot certificates,
created in 2005, maintained their steady increase since their inception to reach 7,309
by December 31, 2024. Rotorcraft pilot certificates held steady at 13,429 in 2024, compared to 13,428 at the end of 2023.
The number of active general aviation pilots
(excluding students and ATPs) is projected
to increase slightly between 2024 and 2045
from 324,081 to 355,180 (0.4 percent annually). The ATP category is forecast to increase by 34,200 (an average of 0.8 percent
annually). The much smaller category of
sport pilots is predicted to increase by 2.6
percent annually over the forecast period.
Private pilot certificates are projected to have
a marginal growth of 0.1 percent per year between 2024 and 2045, while commercial pilot
certificates are projected to increase at an
average annual rate of 0.6 percent over the
forecast horizon.
Commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) certificates have been impacted by legislative
changes as well. The Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of
2010 mandated that all Part 121 (scheduled
airline) flight crew members would hold an
ATP certificate by August 2013. Airline pilots
holding a commercial pilot certificate and
mostly serving at Second in Command positions at the regional airlines could no longer
operate with only a commercial pilot certificate after that date, and the FAA data initially
showed a faster decline in commercial pilot
numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of
increase in ATP certificates. The number of
The declining trend in private pilot certifications flattened after 2016 and started to increase in 2022. As other less costly recreational choices become more attractive and
sport pilot certificates provide an alternative
34
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
the path to become professional pilots by
earning commercial and ATP certificates.
Consequently, higher rates of increase are
estimated for commercial pilots and ATPs.
for hobby use of flying, it is forecasted that
the increase in the number of private pilots
will level by 2030, while this certificate will
continue to be a means to attain higher ratings, such as instrument, or to move up on
600,000
Active Pilots by Type of Certificate
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2015
2024
2025
2035
2045
Calendar Year
Sport Pilot
Commercial Pilot
Rotorcraft only
Private Pilot
Airline Transport Pilot
35
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
FAA Operations
line passengers (1.9 percent versus 2.5 percent) over the forecast period due primarily
to larger aircraft (seats per aircraft mile) and
higher load factors. Both trends allow U.S.
airlines to accommodate more passengers
without increasing the number of flights.
The traffic at FAA facilities underwent drastic
changes during the period of 2019 and 2020
from the COVID-19 impact. There was a 16.7
percent decline in traffic from 53.3 million in
2019 to 44.4 million in 2020. After completing
the recovery from the COVID-19 downturn in
2023, airport operations at FAA and contract
towers continued their robust growth path, up
3.6 percent in 2024, totaling 56.5 million.
General aviation operations are forecast to
increase an average of 0.5 percent a year as
increases in turbine powered activity more
than offset declines in piston activity. General aviation operations accounted for 54.7
percent of total operations in 2024. This is
slightly higher than pre-COVID share of 51.7
percent in 2019. The decline of general aviation traffic was relatively mild during the early
years of the pandemic where recovery speed
was swift.
In the long run, economic growth in air travel
demand and the business aviation fleet will
drive long-term growth in operations at FAA
facilities over the forecast period. Activity at
FAA towers and contract towers is projected
to increase at an average rate of 1.1 percent
a year through 2045 from 58.2 million in 2025
to 72.8 million in 2045. The 1.1 percent annual growth forecast equals the 1.1 percent
forecast for 2024-2044 last year. Commercial operations 6 at these facilities are forecast to increase 1.9 percent a year, approximately four times faster than non-commercial operations. The growth in commercial
operations is less than the growth in U.S. air-
The growth in operations at towered airports
is not uniform. Most of the activity at large
and medium hubs 7 is commercial in nature,
as these are the airports where the vast majority (about 88 percent in 2023) of the passenger enplanements in the U.S. occur.
6 Commercial operations include air carrier and
commuter/air taxi operations.
7 A large hub is defined to have 1 percent or more
of total U.S. revenue passenger enplanements in
FY 2023. A medium hub is defined to have at
least 0.25 percent but less than 1 percent of total
U.S. revenue passenger enplanements. In the
2023 TAF there were 31 large hub airports and
33 medium hub airports.
36
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
FAA & Contract Tower Operations
80,000
Operations (000)
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2015
2025
2035
2045
Fiscal Year
Non Commercial
Commercial
domestic traffic and located at popular leisure destinations have had stronger recoveries.
Given the growth in airline demand that is
forecast and with most of that demand is at
large and medium hubs, activity at the large
and medium hubs is expected to grow substantially faster than smaller airports including small hub and non-hub facilities. The
forecasted annual growth in operations is 1.9
percent at large hubs, 1.6 percent at medium
hubs, 0.8 percent at small hubs and nonhubs, respectively, between 2025 and 2045.
FAA TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach
Control) Operations 8 are forecast to grow
slightly faster than at towered facilities. This
is in part a reflection of the different mix of
activities at TRACONs. TRACON operations
are forecast to increase an average of 1.4
percent a year between 2025 and 2045.
Commercial operations accounted for approximately 58 percent of TRACON operations in 2024 and are projected to grow 1.8
percent a year over the forecast period. General aviation activity at these facilities is projected to grow only 0.5 percent a year over
the forecast.
Among the 31 large hubs, the airports with
the fastest long-term annual growth forecast
are those located along the coastal sections
of the country where most large cities are located. Large cities have historically generated robust economic activity, which in turn
drives up passenger demand. In terms of
COVID-19 recovery, the airports with mostly
TRACON operations consist of itinerant Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules
(VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in the
domain of the TRACON as well as IFR and VFR
overflights.
8
37
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
faster than activity at towered airports and
FAA TRACONs because more of the activity
at En-Route centers is from the faster growing commercial sector and high-end (mainly
turbine) general aviation flying. 9 In 2024, the
share of commercial IFR aircraft handled at
FAA En-Route centers is about 82.5 percent,
which is greater than the 58 percent share at
TRACONs or the 42 percent share at FAA
and Contract Towers.
The number of IFR aircraft handled is the
measure of FAA En-Route Center activity.
Growth in airline traffic is expected to lead to
increases in activity at En-Route centers.
Over the forecast period, aircraft handled at
En-Route centers are forecast to increase at
an average rate of 1.7 percent a year from
2025 to 2045, with commercial activity growing at the rate of 1.8 percent annually. Activity at En-Route centers is forecast to grow
Much of the general aviation activity at towered
airports, which is growing more slowly, is local in
nature, and does not impact the centers.
9
38
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet
fleet while retiring 767-300/400, A330200/300 and 777-200 aircraft. In total the
U.S. passenger carrier widebody fleet increases by 2.7 percent a year over the forecast period.
Restrained by retirements and maintenance
work, the number of active aircraft in the U.S.
commercial fleet contracted slightly in 202324 (a decrease of 185 aircraft). The total
number of commercial aircraft is forecast to
increase from 7,387 in 2024 to 10,607 in
2045, an average annual growth rate of 1.7
percent a year. Long-term increases in demand for air travel and growth in air cargo is
expected to fuel increases in both the passenger and cargo fleets.
The regional carrier fleet is forecast to increase from 1,697 aircraft in 2024 to 2,354 in
2045 as the fleet expands by 1.6 percent (31
aircraft) a year over that period. Carriers remove 50-seat regional jets and retire older
small turboprop and piston aircraft, while
adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the ERJ175s. By 2045, the number of jets in the regional carrier fleet totals 2,114, up from 1,370
in 2024. The turboprop/piston fleet is forecast to shrink by 27% from 327 in 2024 to
240 by 2045. These aircraft account for 10
percent of the regional fleet in 2045, down
from 19 percent in 2024.
Between 2024 and 2045 the number of jets
in the U.S. mainline passenger carrier fleet
(including regional jets) is forecast to grow
from 4,829 to 6,854, a net average of 96 aircraft a year as carriers continue to remove
older, less fuel-efficient narrowbody aircraft.
As the industry continues to feel the effects
of the COVID-19 downturn, increasing utilization rates, production issues and continuing supply chain constraints are all hampering near term growth. These factors result in
declines in the narrowbody fleet (including Eseries aircraft as well as A220-series at JetBlue and A220-series at Delta) through
2027. After 2030, the narrowbody passenger
fleet sees solid increases averaging 112 aircraft per year as carriers replace older technology 737 and A320 family aircraft with
more efficient MAX and Neo families over the
entire forecast period. Over the entire forecast period, the widebody passenger fleet
grows by an average of 21 aircraft a year as
carriers add 777-8/9, 787’s, A350’s to the
The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is
forecast to increase from 861 aircraft in 2024
to 1,399 aircraft in 2045 driven by the growth
in freight RTMs. The narrowbody cargo jet
fleet is projected to increase on net by just 4
aircraft a year as 737-800/900MAX’s are
converted from passenger use to cargo service as older 757-200’s are retired. The widebody cargo fleet is forecast to increase 22
aircraft a year as new 777-8 and converted
767-300 aircraft are added to the fleet, replacing older MD-11, A300, and 747-400
freighters as well as additional capacity for
growing demand.
39
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
U.S. Carrier Fleet
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2019
2024
2035
2045
Calendar Year
Mainline Narrowbody
Mainline Widebody
Cargo Jet
Regionals
40
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Commercial Space
The FAA’s Office of Commercial Space
Transportation (AST) licenses and regulates
U.S. commercial space launch activities including launch and reentry of vehicles and
operation of non-federal launch and reentry
sites authorized by Executive Order 12465
and Title 51 U.S. Code, Subtitle V, Chapter
509 (formerly the Commercial Space Launch
Act). Title 51 and the Executive Order also
direct the U.S. Department of Transportation
to encourage, facilitate, and promote U.S.
commercial launches. The FAA’s mission is
to license and regulate commercial launch
and reentry operations and non-federal
launch sites to protect public health and
safety, the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of
the United States.
The FAA licenses launches or reentries carried out inside the U.S. and by U.S. persons
(which includes U.S. corporations) inside or
outside the United States. The FAA does not
license launches or reentries the U.S. Government carries out for the Government
(such as those owned and operated by National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA) or the Department of Defense). Amateur-class rockets do not require a FAA license or permit 10.
To accomplish its mission, the FAA performs
the following major functions:
•
Maintains an effective regulatory framework for commercial space transportation
activities,
10 Per 14 CFR Chapter 1, Part 1, section 1.1: Amateur rocket means an unmanned rocket that is
propelled by a motor or motors having a combined total impulse of 889,600 Newton-seconds
•
Provides guidance to prospective commercial operators on how to comply with
regulatory requirements for obtaining an
authorization and operating safely,
•
Evaluates applications for licenses, experimental permits, and safety element
approvals for launch and reentry operations and related commercial space
transportation activities,
•
Evaluates applications for licenses for
launch and reentry site operations,
•
Monitors and enforces regulatory compliance through safety inspections of
launches, reentries, sites, and other regulated commercial space activities,
•
Provides U.S. Government oversight of
investigations associated with the mishap of an FAA authorized launch or
reentry,
•
Facilitates the integration of commercial
space launch and reentry operations into
other modes of transportation including
the National Airspace System (NAS) by
establishing appropriate hazard areas
and limits to ensure the protection of the
public,
•
Coordinates research into the safety and
operational implications of new technologies and the evolving commercial space
transportation industry,
•
Conducts outreach to the commercial
space industry by hosting working groups
and conferences,
•
Collaborates with Government partners,
such as the Department of Defense and
(200,000 pound-seconds) or less; and cannot
reach an altitude greater than 150 kilometers
above the earth’s surface.
41
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Space Center and Cape Canaveral Space
Force Station in Florida; Johnson Space
Center in Texas; Wallops Flight Facility in
Virginia; FAA’s Western-Pacific Regional
Office; Vandenberg Space Force Base, and
the Mojave Air and Space Port in California.
FAA also directly supports NASA’s commercial space initiatives by providing on-site
staff at both the Johnson Space Center and
Kennedy Space Center to coordinate the
FAA’s regulatory and compliance activities
with NASA’s development and operational
requirements for commercial space.
NASA to assure consistent approaches
to regulations, policy, and standards, and
•
Conducts outreach to international counterparts to promote the U.S. regulatory
framework across the world.
In addition to AST headquarters offices in
Washington, D.C., AST maintains staff with
assigned duty locations near active launch
ranges to facilitate communication with
space launch operators and to implement
FAA’s regulatory responsibilities more efficiently. AST personnel are currently assigned to duty locations near Kennedy
FAA Regulatory Safety Oversight Activities
permits, and safety element approval. Typically, FAA issues a license with a narrow
scope to a single vehicle configuration and
mission trajectory. With the dynamic commercial space industry, these licenses are
required to be modified to add additional vehicle configurations and mission profiles.
FAA’s new regulatory regime under Part 450
intends to allow flexibility by allowing authorization to conduct launch or reentry activities
for various vehicle configurations and trajectories from multiple sites.
FAA supports commercial space oversight
and operations throughout the regulatory
process. There are many activities performed by FAA during this process. The
most notable activities are described here.
Pre-Application Consultation for Licenses,
Experimental Permits, and Safety Element
Approvals
Prospective applicants seeking commercial
space transportation licenses, experimental
permits, or safety element approvals are required by regulation to consult with FAA before submitting their applications. During
this period, FAA assists them in identifying
potential obstacles to authorization issuance
and determining potential approaches to regulatory compliance. In addition, many new
operators are seeking to incorporate new
technologies, vehicle types, or operational
models creating opportunities for FAA to assist in determining the applicable regulations
or approach to regulatory compliance.
Within safety and oversight is the requirement to conduct both policy and payload reviews. When conducting a policy review,
FAA determines whether the proposed
launch, reentry, or site operation presents
any issues that would adversely affect U.S.
national security or foreign policy interests or
be inconsistent with international obligations
of the United States. If not otherwise exempt
from review, FAA reviews a payload proposed for launch or reentry to determine
whether the payload would jeopardize public
health and safety, the safety of property, U.S.
national security or foreign policy interests,
or the international obligations of the United
Licenses, Permits, and Safety Element Approvals
FAA authorizes commercial space transportation activities via the issuance of licenses,
42
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
sites, as well as at 4 Federal launch ranges
and 3 exclusive use launch sites. The establishment of non-federal launch sites requires
additional inspections in areas such as
ground safety that have traditionally been
overseen by the U.S. Air Force (now the U.S.
Space Force) at Federal ranges. At spaceports and launch sites with high launch rates
(e.g., Cape Canaveral Space Force Station,
Kennedy Space Center, and Vandenberg
Air Force Base), at least 70 percent of inspections are typically conducted by locally
based field inspectors. Currently, the FAA intends to leverage a risk-based approach to
respond to a dynamic operational tempo,
minimize cost, and increase efficiency.
States. The policy and/or payload determination becomes part of the licensing record on
which FAA’s licensing determination is
based.
FAA issues launch and reentry site operator
licenses and license renewals. FAA coordinates with Federal, state, and local governments and with the commercial range operators or users for commercial space licenses
and operations. As part of the evaluation of
applications for launch licenses, reentry licenses, and site operator licenses, FAA also
conducts environmental reviews consistent
with its responsibilities under the National
Environmental Policy Act.
FAA anticipates issuing a growing number of
safety element approvals for space launch
systems equipment, processes, technicians,
training, and other supporting activities. FAA
reviews, evaluates, and issues safety approvals to support the continued introduction of
new safety systems, safety operations applications, and safety element approval renewal applications.
Mishap Investigations
Mishap events have demonstrated that FAA
needs to have the capacity to oversee the investigation of at least two space launch or
reentry mishaps or accidents simultaneously
anywhere in the world, and to lead/oversee
as many as nine investigations during a single year. FAA anticipates an increase in mishaps with new operators coming online. FAA
reviews all applicant mishap plans and accident investigation procedures as part of the
license and permit evaluation process.
Safety Analyses
FAA conducts flight safety, system safety,
maximum probable loss, and explosive
safety analyses to support the evaluation and
issuance of licenses and permits. FAA also
evaluates and analyzes the performance of a
vehicle operator’s safety systems including
safety-critical systems and any associated
crew involved in the function of the safety
system to determine how they affect public
safety risk.
NAS Integration
AST works in partnership with all FAA linesof-business, notably the Air Traffic Organization (ATO) and Office of Airports (ARP), to
support the safe and efficient integration of
commercial launch and reentry operations
through the NAS and its system of airports
and air traffic managed by the ATO. Further,
AST works with the ATO and the Office of
NextGen (ANG) as FAA develops technologies to facilitate safe and efficient integration
of commercial launch and reentry operations
Inspections and Enforcement
FAA currently conducts as many as 750 preflight/reentry, flight/reentry, and postflight/reentry safety inspections per year. Inspections often occur simultaneously at any
of the 14 licensed commercial space launch
43
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
through the NAS, including technologies to
improve the integration of launch and reentry
data into FAA air traffic control systems and
technologies to improve the timely and accurate development and distribution of notices
of aircraft hazard areas.
FY 2024 Results
Between 1989 and 2024, FAA licensed 824
launch/reentries. Most of this activity occurred in the last five years (2020-2024). During this period, 432 launches and reentries
occurred, accounting for over 56 percent of
the total. In FY 2024, launch and reentry operations totaled 148, the highest posted in
U.S. history, and 17 percent of all activity
since 1989.
Correspondingly, the 142 launches were
conducted by six operators, with SpaceX accounting for 83 percent of the total (118
launches). The remaining 17 percent were
conducted by Rocket Lab (12 launches), Virgin Galactic (4 launches), Blue Origin
(3 launches), United Launch Alliance
(2 launches), Firefly Aerospace (2 launches),
and Stratolaunch (1 launch).
A vast majority of the licensed launches (130
out of 142) occurred at three U.S. sites and
one international site. The top U.S. launch
sites included Cape Canaveral, Florida
(61 launches), Vandenburg Space Force
Base (SFB), California (41 launches), and
Kennedy Space Center, Florida (17
launches). Eleven U.S. licensed launches
occurred at Mahia, New Zealand. The remaining 12 licensed launches occurred at
five different sites. 11
FAA Licensed Launches by Operator - FY24
140
120
100
80
60
40
0
60
50
20
10
0
61
41
17
11
Cape
Vandenburg Kennedy
Mahia, NZ
Canaveral
SFB
Space Cntr.
SpaceX
Rocket Lab
4
3
5
Virgin
Galactic
Blue Origin
Other
The total number of licensed reentries in
FY2024 was six. Four reentries were in the
Gulf of America, one reentry was in the Atlantic Ocean, and one occurred at the Utah
Test and Training Range. Five of the six
reentries were conducted by SpaceX, with
the remaining reentry conducted by Varda.
FAA Licensed Launches by Site - FY2024
30
12
20
70
40
118
The launches covered a variety of missions,
including the first-ever privately funded
spacewalk by non-government astronauts. 12
Other missions included (but were not limited
to) space tourism, satellite deployment,
12
Other
Boca Chica, Texas; Van Horn, Texas; Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport, Virginia; Mojave Air &
Space Port, California; Spaceport America, New
Mexico
12 The excursion represented the first use of a
privately-created space suit designed for spacewalks, and was the first time four people from
one mission were exposed to the vacuum of
space at the same time. Source:
https://www.inc.com/kit-eaton/the-commercialspace-race-took-flight-in-2024/91070229.
11
44
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
global emissions tracking of methane, and
earth observation. Future missions are anticipated to also include cislunar operations,
space travel to Mars, and in-orbit services.
In FY2024, ten licensed operations resulted
in a mishap (eight during CY2024).
Forecast
The starting point for FAA’s launch and
reentry operations forecast relies on data
collected from operators and prospective applicants, tying launch and reentry activity directly to anticipated operations by commercial space transportation firms known to
FAA. The forecasts are presented as a low
case scenario and a high case scenario to
provide a range of future activity, reflecting
uncertainty at the pace of which launches
and reentries will occur. All FAA-authorized
commercial space operations are included in
this forecast, regardless of where they occur.
FY2034. In the low case scenario, FAA forecasts 2,067 authorized space operations -going from 174 operations in FY2025 to 259
operations in FY2034. The increase in operations reflects demand for activities such as
in-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing (ISAM); cislunar operations; Mars exploration; satellite deployment and replacement;
and space tourism. 13
A comparison of scenarios between the current forecast and the previously released
forecast for the period FY2025-28 shows an
overall increase of 65 operations for the
high case scenario. 14 Similarly, a comparison of the low case scenarios shows an
overall increase of 68 operations.
In previous years, the commercial space operations forecast covered a five-year horizon. This year marks the first time the forecast spans a ten-year horizon. The expanded timeframe, along with the high case
scenario and a low case scenario, is intended to better aid government and industry planners.
The following graph shows FAA’s low and
high case forecasts, as well as historical
activity. FAA is forecasting launch and reentry activity to increase from a range of 174
to 183 in FY2025 to a range of 259 to 566 in
FY2034. 15
Increase in Operations Over Previous Projections
In the high case scenario, FAA forecasts
4,010 authorized space operations over the
ten-year forecast horizon – going from 183
operations in FY2025 to 566 operations in
ISAM (In-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing) is an emerging field within the aerospace industry that involves the use of robotic
technology to perform tasks in space, such as repairing and maintaining satellites. Cislunar operations are those that would extend up to the
Moon’s orbit and may include commercial activities such as resource mining, placing satellites to
enhance global communications networks, and
providing lunar habitats as a base for scientific research and tourism.
14 Prior forecasts of FAA authorized space operations were presented on a five-year basis.
15
This forecast does not include launch activity
not authorized by the FAA (e.g., launches the
Government carries out for the Government) or
launch activity for other nations.
13
45
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
FAA Launch/Re-Entry Forecast (FY2025-2034)
Number of Operations
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Actual
14
17
22
35
32
33
64
74
113
148
Forecast - High
25
29
26
38
44
46
44
73
94
156
183
225
278
353
419
456
480
510
541
566
Forecast - Low
22
25
17
17
33
34
36
52
61
134
174
177
180
184
200
210
209
225
251
259
Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy
The commercial space transportation industry is rapidly evolving. The industry’s growth
through technological innovation and the development of new markets increases the
challenges associated with forecasting commercial space transportation operations
a dynamic list of firms that launch or intend to launch,
•
development of new technologies,
•
launch rates for reusable launch vehicles,
•
commercial spaceflight by both government astronauts and private citizens,
•
the dynamic nature of flight test programs,
loosening or tightening of the regulatory
environment, and
•
mishaps. 16
Satellite Deployment
Many of the missions included in the launch
forecasts are affiliated with initial satellite deployment and their eventual replacement as
they reach end of useful life. The timing for
the deployment of satellites can affect forecast accuracy, especially in the latter years.
In the near-term, forecast accuracy can be
impacted by cancellation of satellite constellations. For example, last year’s forecast included the launch of Boeing’s V-Band constellation. Boeing surrendered their license
for this constellation in September 2023,
stating that surrendering their license was a
There are several factors that magnify the
challenges with predicting the number of
launches and reentries expected in any
given year. These factors include:
•
•
16 New technologies [e.g., reusable launch vehicles] allow a faster operational tempo, and at the
same time, early use of these technologies can in-
crease the probability of a mishap. The time between mishap investigations and subsequent “return to flight” for impacted entities can take
months, drastically impacting launch plans.
46
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
ceased operations and sold its assets and
equipment to other aerospace companies.
Other market changes could occur in the future.
business decision regarding spectrum allocation. 17
The current forecast for satellite deployment
in the near term includes (but is not limited
to), Amazon’s Kuiper and SpaceX’s Starlink.
Deployment of Amazon’s Kuiper is expected
to begin in 2025 with 100 percent deployment by 2031, also marking the year that satellite replenishment begins. Starlink’s LEO is
expected to be 100 percent deployed by the
end of 2025, with satellite replenishment beginning the same year.
Move to Larger Launch Vehicles
Several rocket manufacturers are developing
larger launch vehicles. SpaceX is continuing
development of its 398-foot rocket, Starship.
Starship’s first launch occurred in April 2023.
Blue Origin’s 320-foot New Glenn rocket successfully launched to orbit during its first test
flight in January 2025, although the goal of
recovering the reusable booster stage during
re-entry was not achieved. Relativity Space
is developing Terran R, a 216-foot rocket.
The Terran R is not expected to be launched
until 2026, at the earliest.
Changes to the List of Firms Intending to
Launch
There is potential for launch service providers that have not been included in this forecast to emerge and begin conducting
launches. Conversely, there is also the risk
that a current launch service provider, or
even multiple providers, may drop out of the
market.
Larger launch vehicles possess several key
attributes that will enable operators to lower
costs on a per launch basis. A brief description of these attributes as they pertain to
Starship, New Glenn, and Terran R are provided below.
The list of firms intending to launch is dynamic, with smaller launch providers struggling in an increasingly competitive market.
New arrivals to the industry face steep barriers to entry, including high development
costs and intense competition from their established counterparts that provide reliable,
frequent, and more cost-effective services.
Increased Payload Mass: Terran R, New
Glenn, and Starship will be able to launch
payloads of up to 20, 45, and 150 metric
tons, respectively, to low earth orbit. 19 For
comparison purposes, the Atlas V, classified
as a medium to heavy-lift launch vehicle, can
carry a payload of 18.9 metric tons to low
earth orbit. 20
At the start of 2024, there were 12 launch
service providers in the U.S. During the year,
ABL Space Systems withdrew from the commercial launch business to focus on missile
defense. 18 In the previous year (2023), Virgin
Orbit filed for bankruptcy protection. It
Increased Payload Volume: The larger
launch vehicles will allow for heftier, more
17 Source: Boeing Relinquishes License For LEO
Broadband Constellation | Aviation Week Network
18 Source: ABL Space exits commercial launch
market, shifts focus to missile defense - Space
News
19 Sources: https://tlpnetwork.com/news/america/relativity-space-update-terran-r-preparingfor-first-flight; https://www.blueorigin.com/newglenn; https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/
20 Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_V
47
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
The demand for space activities such as exploration, tourism, cislunar operations, placement of satellites, and in-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing (ISAM), are expected to grow with each successful mission.
Subsequently, launch providers are motivated towards technology that will allow for
launches to occur at an increased pace.
complex cargo, such as satellites, spacecraft, telescopes, and supplies in a single
mission.
Reusability of Launch Vehicles: Starship is a
fully reusable launch vehicle that is expected
to launch 100 times before retirement. 21 New
Glenn is designed with a reusable first stage
and a partially reusable second stage. New
Glenn is expected to conduct multiple missions prior to retirement. The Terran R will
have a fully reusable first stage and a second
stage that will be discarded after use. Initially
Terran R will be designed for 20 reuses. 22
In the report Space: The $1.8 Trillion Opportunity for Global Economic Growth, it is estimated the space economy will be worth between $1.4 trillion and $2.3 trillion by 2035, up
from $630 billion in 2023. 25 The main drivers
for this growth include:
Increased Launch Frequency: By 2026, Starship is expected to be capable of 25
launches per year. Once fully operational,
New Glenn is expected to be capable of 24
launches per year.
1) a decrease in launch costs, which have
fallen 10-fold over the last 20 years.
2) commercial innovation, which has led to
the use of smaller satellites that can provide
higher resolution pictures at a lower cost.
New Markets for Commercial Space Transportation
3) diversification of investment and applications, with private sector investment reaching
all-time highs and space-enabled activities,
such as tourism, becoming mainstream.
In a shift away from past space domination
by governmental agencies such as NASA
and the Soviet Union’s space program, private companies are increasingly interested
in accessing the commercial space market. 23 Spurring optimism is the development
of commercial space transportation technologies. Space data, products, and services
provide tangible benefits and economic opportunities to people worldwide. 24
4) cultural awareness and enthusiasm, as evidenced by government and business leaders
increasingly consider what space could enable in the future.
Sources: Source: https://gizmodo.com/spacex-sets-ambitious-goal-25-starship-flights-in-2025-2000524527
22 Source: https://www.relativityspace.com/press-release/2023/4/12/terran-r
23 Source: The Future of Space: Economic Opportunities and Challenges | New Space Economy
24 Deployment of SpaceX’s Starlink at little to no
charge for users allowed for communication and
internet services critical for residents and emer-
gency responders impacted by Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton and the Los Angeles wildfires. https://www.ntd.com/free-starlink-servicecoming-to-los-angeles-areas-hit-by-wildfiresmusk-says_1039603.html.
25 Report published by the World Economic Forum in knowledge partnership with McKinsey &
Company. Source: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/space-the-1-point-8-trillion-dollar-opportunity-for-global-economic-growth
21
48
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Emerging Aviation Entrants: Unmanned Aircraft System
and Advanced Air Mobility
New Entrants: Analysis and Forecasts
Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS or drones)
are relatively new entrants into the national
airspace system (NAS) and are experiencing
rapid diversification, both in terms of operations and aircraft. UAS have been experiencing healthy growth in the United States and
around the world over the past decade. The
last few years have been no exception despite the profound impact of COVID-19 on
the overall economy. A drone consists of a
remotely-piloted aircraft and its associated
elements—including the ground control station and the associated communication
links—that are required for safe and efficient
operation in the NAS. The introduction of
drones in the NAS has opened numerous
possibilities, especially from a commercial
perspective, e.g., package deliveries. That
introduction has also brought operational
challenges including safe and secure integration of drones into the NAS. Despite these
challenges, the drone sector holds enormous
promise; potential uses range from individuals flying solely for recreational purposes to
small businesses carrying out focused missions to large companies delivering commercial packages, infrastructure inspections and
delivering medical supplies. Public service
uses, such as conducting search and rescue
support missions following natural disasters,
are proving promising as well.
The other new entrant, Advanced Air Mobility
(AAM), has seen rapid development of aircraft, and operations are expected to begin
in the near future. AAM is an umbrella term
for aircraft that are typically highly automated, utilize electrically powered propulsion, and have vertical take-off and landing
capability. Many of these aircraft fall into the
powered-lift category and are often referred
to as air taxis. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is a
subset of the AAM concept which involves
cooperative air transportation services in and
around urban areas while Regional Air Mobility (RAM) are AAM operations that are
highly automated and conducted outside of
urban areas. Several proposed use cases for
AAM/UAM aircraft include passenger and
cargo transport and the provision of emergency services.
This section provides a broad overview covering recreational and commercial unmanned aircraft 26 and their recent trends, as
These are also called, interchangeably, hobby
or model and non-hobby or non-model UAS, respectively. On October 5, 2018, the President
signed the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018
(Pub. L. 115-254). Section 349 of that Act repealed the Special Rule for Model Aircraft (section 336 of Pub. L. 112-95; Feb. 14, 2012) and
replaced it with new conditions to operate recreational sUAS without requirements for FAA certification or operating authority. The Exception for
Limited Recreational Operations of Unmanned
Aircraft established by section 349 is codified at
49 U.S.C. 44809 [see https://bit.ly/30tUf1Z for
more details]. Recreational flyers, under Section
349, are referred to as “recreational flyers or modeler community-based organizations” [see
https://bit.ly/2PUhMCI]. In previous notes including other documents of the Agency, these terms
are often interchanged.
26
49
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
demand for drone services. The forecasts for
UAS and AAM are supported by analyses of
recent survey findings, data on imported
equipment, remote pilots, and waivers and
exemptions of small UAS. The section also
provides analysis and forecasts of large
UAS. Finally, an analysis of AAM is provided
together with some initial projections drawn
from FAA-sponsored and other research,
government and industry reports.
gathered from trends in registrations, surveys, tracking the overall market, and operational information. Using these trends and insights from the industry, the FAA produces a
number of forecasts. Forecasts reported in
the following sections are driven primarily by
assumptions of the continuing evolution of
the regulatory environment, the commercial
ingenuity of manufacturers and operators,
persistent recreational uses, and underlying
Trends in Recreational/Model Aircraft New Registration
The FAA’s online registration system for recreational/model small drones went into effect
on December 21, 2015. This required all
drones weighing more than 0.55 pounds (or
250 grams) and fewer than 55 pounds (or 25
kilograms) to be registered using the online
system or the existing (paper-driven) aircraft
registry. 27 With the continuing registration,
over 1.61 million (new) recreational drone
owners had already registered cumulatively
with the FAA by end of December of 2024. 28
On average, new owner registration stood at
around 5,810 per month during January –
December in 2024 with some expected
peaks during the holiday seasons and summer. In comparison, the average new owner
registration stood at around 6,053 per month
during January – December in 2023. Prior to
that, the average new owner registration per
month stood at around 7,866 in 2022.
Clearly, the average monthly registrations
have been declining over the years.
As evident, the current pace of new registration (and, presumably, sales of drones requiring registration) has decreased compared to last year in the same period; average new monthly registration during 2024
stood at 243 less than the number observed
in 2023. In 2023, the number stood at 1,813
less than in 2022 and this trend has been relatively consistent over the last few years. We
expect this trend to continue over the fiveyear forecast horizon.
At present, recreational ownership registration does not correspond one-to-one with aircraft. Unlike their commercial non-model
counterpart, the registration rules for recreational operators do not require owners of
small recreational drones (sUAS) to register
each individual aircraft; only operators are
registered. 29 For each registration, therefore,
one or more aircraft may be owned. In some
instances, there is no equipment associated
with registration. Free registration at the initial phase may have incentivized some to
create a registration without any equipment
See https://bit.ly/2IfJ1cm.
For our estimate and projections using the registration database, applied to recreational, commercial/Part 107 and remote pilots, we use only
those who are registered in the US and the territories for the period January – December, 2024.
Furthermore, we draw a clear distinction between
new registrations, cancellations, and renewals in
this document that has been explained later on.
29 https://bit.ly/3WqIbNH
27
28
50
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
to report. Notwithstanding these challenges,
there is information available, from industry
and academia and surveys, allowing us to
understand aircraft ownership. Furthermore,
as a result of robust strategic drone research
planning, the FAA has launched various research projects to understand the magnitude
of the sector, implications for aircraft that
may be used for recreational flying, as well
as potential safety impacts of drone integration into the NAS. Finally, the Agency has incorporated outside analysis and launched
surveys 30 to understand the magnitude of the
sector and improve forecasting efforts.
With over 1.61 million new recreational operators cumulatively registered as of December 2024, the FAA estimates that there are
approximately 1.87 million sUAS in the fleet
distinctly identified as recreational aircraft,
i.e., equipment is 16 percent higher than the
total new registrations. Comparing industry
sales and other data, we conclude that the
number of recreational aircraft is almost 16
percent higher than ownership registration.
Applying cumulative net gain/loss calculations from the registry, the effective/active
fleet is estimated to be around 455,106 as of
December 2024. This provides us with the
lower bound of the effective/active fleet of
recreational small drones in the NAS.
30
A comparison of last year’s data (2023) with
this year’s (2024) shows the annual growth
rate for new registrations to be a little over
4.5 percent, a slight drop from the 4.9 percent growth in the year before (2023) and
continuing the trend from the year before
(2022) of 6.7 percent. Nevertheless, it is still
an increasing trend, albeit at a lower rate.
This is possibly due to the continuation of
drones playing a dominant role in recreation,
facilitated by decreasing equipment prices,
Survey and results have been reported below.
51
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
leads to upside possibilities in the forecast of
as many as 1.97 million units by 2029. If registration renewals are kept up over time, effective/active fleet would likely converge to
base forecasts, i.e., derived from cumulative
new registrations combined with multiplicity
of craft ownership. In the presence of slower
renewal tendency, as data presently indicates, it is likely that the effective/active fleet
will be lower than that derived from base
forecasts. This provides the FAA with an opportunity to derive low-side forecasts using
effective/active fleet calculations. Nonetheless, the low-side uncertainty growth trajectory (i.e., annual growth rates) tracks closer
to the base forecast in the outer years of
2027-2029. A forecast base (i.e., the most
likely outcome), together with high and low
scenarios, is provided in the table below: 33
improved technology such as built-in cameras and higher capability sensors, and relatively easy maneuvering. Nevertheless, like
all technologies fueling growth of hobby or
recreational items, the trend in recreational
small drone ownership registration has been
slowing. It is likely to slow down further as the
pace of falling prices diminishes and the
early adopters begin to experience limits in
their experiments, or simply because recreational eagerness plateaus.
Given trends in registration and market developments, the FAA forecasts that the recreational small drone market will saturate at
around 1.93 million units over the next five
years. 31,32 However, there is still some upside uncertainty due to further changes in
technology, faster regulatory integration, and
the likely continued decreasing prices. This
Total Recreation/Model Fleet
(Million sUAS units)
Historical
Forecast
Calendar Year
2024
0.4551
Low*
Base**
High**
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
0.4600
0.4848
0.4978
0.5055
0.5072
1.8894
1.9110
1.9228
1.9258
1.9297
1.9043
1.9287
1.9452
1.9588
1.9725
1.8670
1.8670
'*': effective/active fleet counts combined with multiplicity of craft ownership;
'**': new registration counts combined with multiplicity of craft ownership;
average or trend growth over the next 5
years, from the present around 1.87 million
units to approximately 1.93 million units by
The FAA forecasts that the recreational small
drone fleet will likely maintain its peak with
These forecasts have two dimensions worth
emphasizing. When looked at from the cumulative base, “total” captures the number of drones
that are reported to be in the system (i.e., base
and high); while “effective/active fleet” refers to
aircraft that are presently operating in the system
(i.e., low).
32 As we extend the forecast time period by a year
from 2028 to 2029 for rolling 5-year projections,
the sector is expected to expand by around
63,000 from what we forecasted last year:
1.8830 million in 2028 to 1.9297 million in 2029.
This trend is likely to continue due to secular
growth in the sector.
33 As noted earlier, low scenario reports effective/active fleet using a net gain/loss calculation.
By definition, low scenario differs from base and
high scenarios, which are based on new registrations only. Hence, a low scenario counting of fleet
for the year 2024 is markedly different than the
baseline and high scenarios for the same year.
31
52
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
extension of the forecast projection by a
year. The increased new registration trend,
in part driven by COVID-19, may or may not
continue in the longer run. 34 In comparison,
low side forecasts assume the present trend
in renewals combined with new registration
followed by similar expiry and cancellation
trends. Nevertheless, the growth rates underlying these numbers are steady in the initial years but fade faster in the last two to
three years. The gradual saturation that is
projected in five years and beyond in the recreational small drone fleet parallels other
consumer technology products and the
Agency’s projections from the last few years,
particularly with respect to base and high
forecasts. However, both the numbers and
the growth trajectory for the low scenario
(i.e., effective/active fleet) are fundamentally
different from the past couple years for the
reasons described above. Nevertheless, it
provides a lower bound that is likely to be
closer to reality in terms of small drones that
are in use and operationally active in the
NAS.
2029 thus attaining an average annual
growth rate of 0.66 percent during 20242029. During the last year, it was reported to
be 1.2 percent for 2023-2028.
Following somewhat different growth trajectory than the base or high growth, there will
likely be approximately 507,237 active/effective small drones (or, 52,131 more than what
was observed during 2024) over the next five
years in 2029, which is now the low forecast
for recreational/model small drones. This ensures an average annual growth rate of 2.2
percent during 2024-2029. Active/effective
fleet count is determined and projected
based on the net gain/loss calculation derived by using five underlying components
from the registry. The high scenario, on the
other hand, may reach as high as 1.97 million
units (or 1.1 percent average annual growth
rate).
Notice that eventual saturation is at somewhat higher levels in comparison to last
year’s projections, reflecting continued new
registrations, albeit at a slower rate, by recreational flyers observed during 2024 and
Trends in Commercial/Non-Model Aircraft and Forecasts Using Registrations vs. Effective/Active Fleet
Online registration for commercial/nonmodel small drones went into effect on April
1, 2016. Unlike recreational/model ownership, rules for commercial registration require owners to register each unmanned aircraft, thus creating a one-to-one correspondence between registration and aircraft. During the period of January – December 2024,
more than 124,000 commercial operators
registered their equipment. In comparison,
during the period of January – December
2023, more than 115,000 commercial operators registered their new equipment. The
pace of monthly new registration in 2024, at
around 10,370, is higher than monthly registrations of 9,627 during 2023 which was
It is quite likely that many users were buying
and experimenting with recreational small drones
given the COVID-19 public health emergency and
the substantial portion of the workers presently
working from home. This trend may or may not
continue once regular work patterns resume.
34
53
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
higher than those observed during 2022 at
8,750. The number of new registrations is
higher in comparison to earlier years. As the
pace of recreational registration has slowed
somewhat, particularly last year, FAA expects new registrations for commercial sUAS
to follow suit.
The commercial small drone sector is dynamic and appears to be at an inflection
point, as is evident from the monthly registrations, demonstrating powerful stages of
growth. Unlike the recreational small drone
sector, the FAA anticipates that the growth
rate in this sector will remain high over the
next few years. This is primarily driven by the
regulatory clarity that Part 107 continues to
provide for the industry.
Total Commercial/Non-Model Fleet
(Thousand sUAS units)
Calendar Year
Historical
2024
Forecast
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Low*
388
Base**
395
402
408
411
413
'*': effective/active fleet counts.
'**': new registration counts based fleet counts.
54
966
1030
1089
1135
1165
1180
High**
966
1035
1099
1151
1187
1209
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Normalizing UAS Beyond Visual Line of
Sight Operations rulemaking 38), new business models will begin to develop, thus enhancing robust supply-side responses.
These responses, in turn, will create demand
forces (e.g., consumer responses to receiving commercial delivery packages, routine
blood delivery to hospitals, and search-andrescue operations) that are latent and in the
experimental stages at present. Unlike a developed sector of aviation such as passenger
air transportation, it is impossible to put a
marker on “intrinsic demand” (or core demand) primarily driven by the economic and
demographic factors underlying this sector.
The FAA uses the trends observed in registration during previous years, calculation of
net gain/loss, information from the annual
survey, a review of available industry forecasts/workshops and past FAA Drone Symposiums, and FAA-sponsored research. 35
Using these and a time series model fitted
onto the monthly data, the FAA forecasts that
the commercial drone fleet will (i.e., base
scenario) exceed the million mark in 2025
and total 1.118 million by 2029, 22 percent
above the total as of the end of 2024. 36
Using the low or effective/active fleet, FAA
forecasts an expansion of the small drone
fleet by 25,000, or 7 percent of the currently
calculated effective/active fleet of around
388,000 units. 37 As the present base (i.e., the
cumulative total) increases, the FAA anticipates the growth rate of the sector will slow
down over time, and the effective/active fleet
will likely catch up with the growth trajectory
of new registrations. Nevertheless, the sector will be much larger than what was understood only a few years earlier.
In this year’s forecast the FAA makes a provisional attempt to provide a “low” side for
now, essentially capturing the intrinsic demand and making use of the calculation of
effective/active fleet. In addition, FAA provides a likely or base scenario together with
the enormous potential embodied in a “high”
scenario, with average annual growth rates
of 4.1 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively
(lowered by a percentage point from last
year). As noted earlier, the low scenario is
driven by two positive factors (i.e., new registration and renew+) and two negative factors (i.e., cancellations and expiry). The average annual growth rate corresponding to
the low scenario is thus determined by the
combined effect of both positive and negative factors and is approximately 1.3 percent
a year. This is much smaller than both the
base and high scenarios because the effective/active count is driven to catch up with the
Unlike the small recreational drone segment,
it is extremely difficult to put a floor on the
growth of the commercial small drone sector
due to its composition (i.e., consumer vs.
professional grades) and the varying business opportunities and growth paths. As
commercial small drones become operationally more efficient and safer, battery life expands, and integration continues (e.g., recent final rules involving operations over
people; flying at night, remote ID, and future
See https://bit.ly/432Gxn5.
Last year, the ratio of end-year forecast to
base-year forecast was 1.33-times. That is, the
FAA forecasted the end-year to be 1.33-times
base-year (2023) numbers in 5-year (2028).
Higher forecasts are often the result of improved
regulatory environments, as noted below, and environments following the process of rule-making
evaluation (See fn. #30; and #33-#36 for these)
in the face of new opportunities.
37 This is driven by the combined effects of projected underlying growth rates of cancellations,
expiry, new registrations, and renewals.
38 See https://tinyurl.com/3scmxzcu for more details.
35
36
55
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
from the work to begin implementing the UAS
traffic management system (UTM) ecosystem, 41 successful completion of the UAS Integration Pilot Program (IPP), 42 and continuation in BEYOND, 43 and package delivery by
Part 135 drones. 44
new registrations trend. 39,40 Commercial
small drones are currently used for numerous purposes. As the sector grows, the FAA
anticipates there will be more uses for, and
much more use of, small commercial drones.
This is increasingly evident, for example,
2024 Survey and Preliminary Results
The FAA requires an understanding of the
flight characteristics and operations of UAS
across the U.S. Unlike commercial aviation,
which has statutory reporting requirements,
UAS operate mostly outside of airports and
are free to operate without reporting activities
to aviation authorities while in uncontrolled
space. As such, little is known about the general operations of UAS, which has hindered
FAA efforts to effectively integrate UAS into
the NAS.
Recreational registrants had a 26% response rate while Part 107 registrants had a
22% response rate.
All respondents were asked about their total
number of flights conducted in 2024, defined
as a takeoff and a subsequent landing. Respondents from the Part 107 registry were
asked to report their total number of non-recreational flights and their total number of recreational flights conducted in 2024 while respondents from the recreational registry
were only asked about their recreational
flights.
To improve the FAA’s understanding of UAS
activities, it has developed and conducted a
survey of UAS operators. The survey design
is a stratified random sample of UAS operators with type of operator, recreational or Part
107, and geography, U.S. County, as the
strata. The survey frame is constructed from
the recreational UAS and the Part 107 registries. 45 A total 97,857 invitations were sent to
UAS registrants: 54,634 recreational registrants and 43,223 Part 107 registrants. 46
Respondents from the Part 107 registry reported an average of 75.4 nonrecreational
flights (median of 2) and an average of 34.9
recreational flights (median of 5) in 2024. Respondents from the recreational registry reported an average of 46.2 recreational flights
(median of 10).
Findings from our survey, discussed last year
and this year in a later section, also support this
observation.
40 See prior footnotes for a similar explanation
pertaining to effective/active count for recreational registration.
41 See https://bit.ly/3KucgX4
42 See https://bit.ly/2O4tzPP for more details.
43 See https://bit.ly/3nKAOlK. We provided a detailed analysis of the BEYOND program in last
year’s document.
44 See https://bit.ly/3CnroEj for more details.
45 As noted earlier, 49 U.S. Code § 44809 requires recreational UAS aircraft systems operators to register with the FAA. In addition, 14 CFR
Part 107 requires non-recreational operators to
register with the FAA. UAS operators must register with one of these registers at FAA’s
https://bit.ly/41328Kr and paper forms are no
longer available.
46 The survey design is a stratified random sample of registered operators. The strata are the
registries and the U.S. County in which the operator is domiciled. Each county had 30 registrants
randomly selected to receive an invitation to the
survey. If the number of registrants in the county
were fewer than 30, all registrants in the county
were sent an invitation. For more information, a
survey supplement is available upon request.
39
56
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
flights with 49.1 of those flights in a FRIA.
High FRIA operators conducted an average
of 107.2 annual flights with 106.3 of those
flights in a FRIA.
The number of active FAA-Recognized Identification Areas (FRIAs) in the United States
reached 2,481 47 at the end of 2024, and the
extent of their use has not been quantitatively measured. As such, respondents from
the recreational registry were also asked
how many of their recreational flights were
conducted in FRIAs. 48 Respondents reported an average of 18.0 of their flights were
conducted in a FRIA (median of 0). Moreover, the question revealed that recreational
operators are either all-in on FRIAs or not at
all, operating nearly entirely within or outside
their boundaries. In addition, 17 percent of
recreational registrants are High FRIA operators who, when compared to Low FRIA operators, conduct 2.8 times as many annual
flights with different airframes, in particular
more fixed wing.
The survey also contained a self-report
question on the type of UAS operator the respondent considered themselves. This question contained two possible categories of recreational operators: drone operator and
model aircraft operator. As such, three types
of recreational operator emerged: those who
identified as a drone but not model aircraft
operator (Drone not Model), those who identified as a model aircraft but not drone operator (Model not Drone), and those who identified as both drone and model aircraft operators (Both Rec). The FRIA activity categories tended to vary with the three categories
of recreational operators from the self-identification question. The Low FRIA group was
dominated with Drone not Model operators
(87.1 percent). The Mixed FRIA group was
more balanced with 55.6 percent Drone not
Model operators, 18.9 percent Drone and
Model operators, and 23.5 percent Model not
Drone operators. The High FRIA group is
48.2 percent Model not Drone operators,
37.5 percent Drone not Model operators, and
8.3 percent Drone and Model operators.
These data reveal a predictable trend, that
model aircraft operators favor FRIAs while
Drone operators favor operating outside
FRIAs.
Respondents from the recreational registry
were differentiated into groups based on
their percentage of activity in a FRIA. First,
Low FRIA activity recreational respondents
(77.8%; n=8391) who conducted 10 percent
or less of their operations in a FRIA. Second,
Mixed FRIA activity recreational respondents
(5.4%; n=582) who conducted greater than
10 and less than 90 percent of their operations in a FRIA. Third, High FRIA activity recreational respondents (16.8%; n=1812) who
conducted 90 percent or more of their operations in a FRIA. Low FRIA operators conducted an average of 38.2 annual flights with
0.2 of those flights in a FRIA. Mixed FRIA operators conducted an average of 98.6 annual
47 See https://udds-faa.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/c7ad6f733cce47b9a653e12010742361_0
/explore?location=38.732240%2C77.118017%2C8.28&showTable=true
48 FAA-Recognized Identification Areas (FRIAs)
are a defined geographic area where drones can
be flown if they don’t have Remote ID equipment. FRIAs are often used by community organizations and educational intuitions. [see
https://www.faa.gov/uas/getting_started/remote_id/fria]
57
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Recreational Operator Percentage by Self Identification and
FRIA Activity Level
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
10% less FRIA
10%-90% FRIA
BothRec
90% + FRIA
DroneNotModel
These categories also revealed differences
in the number of aircraft owned, number of
aircraft operated, and airframe type operated
in 2024. Low FRIA operators owned an average of 2.5 aircraft and operated 2.0, while
High FRIA operators owned an average of
9.6 aircraft and operated 6.5. Additionally,
Low FRIA operators operated 1.5 quadcopters and 0.4 fixed wing aircraft while High
FRIA operators operated 0.8 quadcopters
and 7.8 fixed wing aircraft on average.
Total
ModelNotDrone
This preliminary analysis of the survey reveals operating groups that are varied,
unique, and more differentiable than previously believed. With these activities and
groups identified, the FAA can better serve
the public and make more informed decisions that improve the safety of the NAS.
Remote Pilot Forecast
RP certifications had been issued, an increase of a little less than 59,000 from the
same time last year (2023).
An important final metric in commercial small
drones is the trend in remote pilot (RP) certifications. RPs 49 are used primarily to facilitate commercial and public use (i.e., law enforcement and first responder) small drone
flights, as discussed in the preceding section. As of December 2024, a total of 427,598
Approximately three-quarters (77 percent) of
the RPs have only a Part 107 RP certificate,
while the remainder (23 percent) have a Part
107 RP certificate along with a Part 61 pilot
certificate. Over 90 percent of those who took
In our accounting of RPs, we take pilots who
passed the initial knowledge test (or Part 107),
plus current traditional pilots who took online
training in lieu of the knowledge test (or Part 61).
49
58
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
the graph below. Last year, the FAA projected RPs to be a little under 400,000 by the
end of 2024. Actual registrations by the end
of 2024 totaled 427,598 (or over 28,000
more than last year’s projection) thus the
number of actual RPs exceeded last year’s
projection by 7.0 percent for 2024.
Given the actual numbers at the end of 2024,
RPs are set to experience tremendous
growth following the growth trends of the
commercial (or Part 107) small drone sector.
Starting from the base of 427,598 RPs in
2024, the expected growth in commercial activities leads to a 22 percent increase in the
total number of RPs by 2029 (522,325),
showcasing tremendous opportunities for
growth in employment—almost 95,000 new
RP opportunities—associated with commercial and public use activities of small drones.
The potential for RPs may increase even
more if larger drones are used in commercial
activities and advanced air mobility (AAM)
becomes a reality in the near future, two topics discussed in the sections below.
the exam passed and obtained RP certification. 50
The RP forecasts presented below are
based on three primary data sources: (a)
trends in total RPs; (b) renewal trends; and
(c) trends in commercial small drone registration, or Part 107 and forecasts of fleet. In
this context, it is important to note that the
empirical relationship between trends in RP
and commercial/Part 107 small drone registration, particularly new registration, has
changed in the past few years with a decline
in the ratio of units registered to RPs. Given
the trends in registration and our forecast of
the commercial small drone fleet (i.e., base
forecasts), the FAA assumes that the trend
in remote pilots to units of small commercial
drones will remain at its 2024 level of 2.26.
Using these assumptions combined with the
base scenario of the commercial/Part 107
small drone forecast, FAA projects RPs in
Comparing data from last year, we notice that
RP numbers have been revised downwards, by
around 4,000 (or around -2%), over the entire
program period. This is due to data clean up
throwing out duplicate data and wrong data entry
noticed during renewal.
50
59
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Large UAS
Reauthorization Act of 2018. Both applications for a 44807 exemption by individuals
and organizations and the decisions by the
FAA are publicly available. 53 Since 44807 exemptions are required to operate a lUAS for
commercial purposes, these exemptions are
a leading indicator of both the purchases,
which increase the fleet, and the operations
of civilian lUAS. The 44807 exemption was
slated to sunset in May of 2024, but the FAA
Reauthorization Act of 2024 extended the
44807 exemption’s sunset to the end of September 2033. 54
Part 107 limits the gross takeoff weight of unmanned aircraft (or sUAS) to below 55lbs.
Thus, unmanned aircraft with gross takeoff
weights above 55lbs must operate under
separate rules and are considered a separate category of UAS, which we refer to as
simply large UAS (lUAS) for this analysis.
Since these lUAS are not type certified and
do not fall under the Part 107 operating rules,
operation of these aircraft requires a section
49 U.S.C § 44807 exemption or a public aircraft operator (PAO) certification. 51 In addition, the FAA requires lUAS operating under
a 44807 exemption or PAO to receive a tail
number by registering the unmanned aircraft
in the Part 47 aircraft registry. 52
The FAA has granted 1,114 new exemptions
for lUAS in 2024, a 13 percent increase from
2023. 55 Almost 97 percent (1,079) of the new
exemptions granted were for large agriculture unmanned aircraft. Just under 12 percent (156) of all exemptions granted (1,270)
were extensions or amendments.
The FAA has been granting 44807 exemptions since their introduction in the FAA
44807 Exemptions Granted for Large UAS
1,400
35
1,200
1,000
197
800
1,079
600
400
27
200
311
-
28
2022
2019
2020
Extend/Amend
2021
New Agricultural
791
66
156
2023
2024
New Other
The increased number of exemptions
granted in 2023 and 2024 suggests that
granting exemptions by regulators has become routine, particularly for lUAS used in
51
See bit.ly/3KxiuVX for more details.
See bit.ly/3ZIcCxJ.
53 All 44807-exemption applications and decisions are available at regulations.gov in the
“Other” category.
54
52
55
60
See http://tinyurl.com/mpkhmzzd
Changes in count methodology.
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
The rapid growth of lUAS in the Part 47 registry is supported by the imports of lUAS into
the United States. Imports of lUAS grew from
3,100 in 2023 to 5,145 in 2024, a two-thirds
increase. Given that imported lUAS are likely
to become new aircraft in the registry, this
suggests that the fleet of lUAS is still growing
exponentially.
agricultural operations. While agricultural exemptions granted continue to grow, exemptions for other lUAS operations, such as
package delivery or long-range infrastructure
inspection, have slowed. This suggests that,
although agricultural lUAS exemptions are
routine, the safety cases for other lUAS operations have not been sufficiently proven for
these exemptions to become routine. Since
44807 exemptions are only valid for two
years, the extensions and amendments
should be a function of the new exemptions
granted over the previous two years. The
portion of the existing lUAS exemptions that
were extended or amended has fallen each
year from 66 percent in 2021 to 11 percent in
2024.
With robust demand for lUAS operations indicated by 44807 exemptions and strong
supply suggested from import data, FAA expects the growth of new lUAS over the next
5 years to keep pace with the growth observed in 2024. However, assuming 44807
exemptions remain the primary authority by
which lUAS are operated, it is expected that
an inflection point in 2027 or 2028 will occur
after which the new lUAS added to the PAR
are expected to decrease in the following
years. As such, FAA projects 14,896 new
lUAS will be added to the PAR in 2029, with
a total active lUAS fleet of 44,740 aircraft by
the end of 2029.
Since lUAS are required to register with the
Part 47 Aircraft Registry (PAR), we can use
the PAR to estimate the lUAS active fleet.
Using the Aircraft Reference file from the
publicly available PAR, FAA identifies the
lUAS in the Aircraft Registration Master file
and the Deregistered Aircraft file from which
it can calculate the active fleet of lUAS. 56 In
2024, 2,800 new lUAS aircraft were added to
the PAR, a 156 percent increase from 2023.
Twenty one percent (409) of aircraft registered at the end of 2023 were delisted in
2024, producing an active fleet of 4,314 lUAS
by the end of 2024.
Although the active fleet can be observed
from the PAR, the operations of lUAS are
more difficult to observe. The majority of registered lUAS in the PAR are agricultural
spraying aircraft from just three manufacturers. 57 Moreover, the majority of new lUAS
registered in the PAR were agricultural
spraying aircraft in both 2023 (67percent)
The Public Aircraft Registry data for 2022 is
available at https://bit.ly/433iqET. Unmanned aircraft are separated from crewed aircraft using the
“NO-SEATS” field in the Aircraft Reference file.
The “AC-WEIGHT” field is used to remove all
small unmanned aircraft, and the “TYPE-ACFT”
field is used to remove all lighter-than-air aircraft,
including blimps and balloons. The remaining
codes – held within the “CODE” field – are
matched with the “MFR MDL CODE” in the Air-
craft Registration Master file and the Deregistered Aircraft file and adjusted based on the
“STATUS CODE” field. The remaining aircraft are
sorted for the year they registered using the
“CERT ISSUE DATE” or “LAST ACTION DATE”.
The count of new registration, older registrations,
and delisted registrations are used to construct
the active lUAS fleet.
57 DJI, Hylio, and Yamaha’s agricultural-spraying
UAS account for just over 50% of the registered
large UAS in the Part 47 aircraft registry.
56
61
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
and 2024 (51 percent). As such, the vast majority of lUAS operations will be conducted
close to the ground with only a few organizations operating lUAS in the NAS, let alone in
the controlled airspace.
Projected Large UAS in the Aircraft Registry
60,000
Large UAS Registered
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
(10,000)
2021
Continued
2022
Added
2023
2024
Removed
2025
Continued (P)
2026
Added (P)
2027
2028
2029
Removed (P)
Advanced Air Mobility
To prepare for the safe and efficient integration of AAM operations into the NAS, the FAA
led several initiatives including the release of
the FAA UAM CONOPS Version 2.0 in April
2023, as well as the publication of the FAA
AAM Implementation Plan and the issuance
of the final rule that adds the “powered-lift”
definition to the regulations covering certain
air carrier and commercial operations, both
in July 2023. More recently, in November
2024 the FAA issued the final rule establishing the requirements for pilot certification and
powered-lift operations and published an updated engineering brief for vertiport design
standards in December 2024.
Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is an umbrella
term for aircraft that are typically highly automated, utilize electrically powered propulsion, and have vertical take-off and landing
capability. Many of these aircraft that fall into
the powered-lift category are often referred
to as air taxis. Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is a
subset of the AAM concept which involves
highly automated, cooperative air transportation services in and around urban areas.
Several proposed use cases for AAM/UAM
aircraft include passenger and cargo
transport, and the provision of emergency
services.
62
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Considering the recent regulatory advancements and operator progress toward EIS, it
is essential to incorporate the latest available
information into AAM demand estimates.
These estimates will aid in the development
of vertiports and other infrastructure, airspace design and procedures, spectrum
availability, workforce considerations, safety
assessments and other analyses. Drawing
from FAA-sponsored AAM demand research
conducted by The MITRE Corporation (MITRE) in March 2025, 58 a NAS-wide AAM demand forecast starting from Year 1 (defined
as the EIS year 59 for the first expected AAM
use case in the U.S.) through Year 6 (five
years after EIS) is shown in the table below:
Despite a challenging environment from a
wave of consolidations, several AAM Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEMs) including Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, and Beta
Technologies have made significant progress toward entry into service (EIS) and are
planning to launch operations in the 20252026 timeframe. Archer Aviation plans to
launch air taxi services in Abu Dhabi by late
2025, and Joby Aviation plans to launch air
taxi services in Dubai by early 2026. In the
U.S., these OEMs have either entered or are
close to entering the final phases of aircraft
certification. They have also established
manufacturing facilities in the U.S., with initial
aircraft production starting in 2025 followed
by production ramp up over the next several
years.
NAS-wide AAM Demand Forecast
Year 1 (EIS)
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Annual trips
42,405
323,038
616,115 1,029,883
Daily trips
116
885
1,688
2,822
Year 5
1,826,525
5,004
Year 6
2,820,956
7,729
then air medical missions. This is because
airport shuttles will have the most robust passenger demand traveling between fixed and
concentrated points of interest (i.e., airports
and downtown areas). Urban air taxi flights
for commuters, on the other hand, will be
spread across more routes depending on
where commuters live and work. Lastly, air
medical missions are expected to lag behind
airport shuttle and air taxi services due to a
lower level of operator interest currently, as
well as potential requirements for retrofitting
aircraft for medical-use, additional time
Unconstrained demand for AAM departures
across the NAS is estimated to be 42,405 departures in its first full year, growing to over
600,000 departures annually by Year 3. As
technology adoption and community acceptance continue to increase, the NAS-wide
demand could continue to accelerate and
could reach 2.8 million departures annually
by the end of Year 6 (or around 7,700 daily
flights).
Among the three most-likely AAM use cases,
it is projected that initial operations in the
U.S. will commence with airport shuttles in a
few major cities, followed by air taxis, and
58 “Advanced Air Mobility Demand Forecast for
the National Airspace System”, The MITRE Corporation, MP250135, Mclean, VA, March 2025.
59 Year 1 does not have a definitive calendar year
assigned as the timing for AAM operations to be
granted EIS in the U.S. is still uncertain and is dependent on several external factors beyond the
scope of the AAM demand research.
63
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
needed for aircraft certification, and deployment of charging infrastructure to support air
medical missions.
The figure below shows the anticipated AAM
departures for each forecast year, by use
case.
The Airport Shuttle projections constitute the
largest portion of the overall AAM forecasts
for a couple of reasons. First, the Airport
Shuttle is anticipated to be the initial AAM
use case to be implemented, with demand
increasing annually in tandem with the rise in
airline passengers from the growing number
of MSAs that could adopt an AAM airport
shuttle service. Secondly, the number and
proportion of commuters likely to consider
AAM are generally lower than the estimates
for airline passengers.
were estimated by assuming each AAM aircraft would conduct 28 trips per day, on average (2 trips per hour over a 14-hour operating day) for the Airport Shuttle and Urban
Air Taxi use cases and 2.5 trips a day for the
Air Medical use case. The projected NASwide AAM daily trips and the estimated fleet
sizes to support those trips are shown in the
table below. Based on announcements of expected fleet production capacities from several AAM OEMs, the fleet sizes needed to
support the number of trips should be attainable and not be a constraining factor.
The fleet sizes required to support the projected departures for the three use cases
Daily trips
Fleet size
NAS-wide AAM Demand Forecast
Year 1 (EIS)
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
116
885
1,688
2,822
4
32
62
104
64
Year 5
5,004
184
Year 6
7,729
283
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Forecast Uncertainties
are seeing a return to higher tensions between Russia and the West resulting in
higher expenditures on defense that may
push taxes higher and leave consumers with
less money to spend on items like air travel.
The forecasts in this document are forecasts
of aviation demand, driven by models built on
forecasts of economic activity. There are
many assumptions in both the economic
forecasts and in the FAA models that could
affect the degree to which these forecasts
are realized. Now that passenger and traffic
volumes have returned to pre-COVID levels,
this year’s forecast is driven, at least in the
near-term, by the strength of the U.S. and
global economies that may be offset partially
by supply chain constraints, most notably aircraft deliveries. It does go without saying that
terrorism remains among the greatest worldwide risks to aviation growth. Any terrorist incident aimed at aviation could have an immediate and significant impact on the demand
for aviation services that could be greater
than its impact on overall economic activity.
The rapid spread of COVID-19 that began in
early 2020 resulted in the largest decline in
aviation activity since the jet era began in the
late 1950’s. While aviation activity has fully
recovered to pre-pandemic levels, there is
still a good deal of uncertainty about the long
run path of aviation activity. There are questions as to whether the strategies that U.S.
and foreign carriers employed to recover
from the downturn in demand will be successful in a post-COVID environment. Other
questions surround the stability of consumer
attitudes and behaviors towards aviation in a
post-COVID environment, as well as the
speed and nature of the economic recovery,
all of which apply both domestically and globally.
In addition, changes in the geo-political landscape could lead to outcomes very different
than the forecasts provided in this document.
The ongoing crises in Ukraine and in the Middle East represent a very large uncertainty to
this year’s forecast. The impacts are still
evolving and dependent in large part on the
outcome of the armed conflicts. While there
was an initial negative impact on airline bookings as well as a surge in oil prices, those
impacts have diminished over time. The impact of the economic sanctions on Russia
pushed the Russian economy (the world’s
10th largest as of 2021) into a sharp fourquarter recession in 2022. European economic growth remained muted in 2023 as
Europe moved to further restrict trade with
Russia and its allies and reduce its dependence on energy from Russia. Many forecasters see continued low European economic
growth in 2025 as well due to the impacts of
the conflict. In the longer run, most analysts
The future direction of oil prices presents another considerable uncertainty in producing
the forecast. The FAA’s baseline forecast
(derived from economic assumptions in S&P
Global December 2024 U.S. macro forecast
and 30-Year Focus released during November 2024) calls for oil prices to fall from $79
per barrel in 2024 to $68 per barrel in 2025.
Over the long term, the FAA baseline forecast assumes that oil prices will rise gradually to about $75 per barrel in 2030 and about
$99 per barrel by the end of the forecast period in 2045. However, there are other oil
price forecasts that vary considerably from
the FAA base forecast in the next 2-5 years.
These include the latest Energy Information
Administration (EIA) Short Term Energy Out-
65
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
in 2025. Thereafter, the baseline forecast assumes that China and India will be growth
engines for emerging economies. The forecast assumes China successfully transitions
the economy from heavy reliance on manufacturing and resource industries to one
more oriented towards the services and technology sectors and India continues to implement reforms to make its economy more
competitive. Many analysts are concerned
that in light of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,
China moves closer to Russia, limiting opportunities to further transition its economy
away from manufacturing and resource intensive industries. In the case of India, the
impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy prices and food prices may put pressure
on trade and fiscal deficits resulting in a slowdown of reforms.
look released in March 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Commodity Price
Forecast released in October 2024 and the
World Bank Commodity Price Forecast released in October 2024. The EIA forecast
projects the spot price of oil will fall to $65 per
barrel by 2026, considerably above the FAA
base forecast of $61. The IMF forecast sees
the price of oil declining to around $67 in
2026 and continuing to fall to $64 per barrel
in 2029, well below the FAA base forecast of
$69 per barrel. The World Bank forecast has
oil prices at $72 per barrel in 2026. Over the
long run, lower oil prices give consumers an
impetus for additional spending, including air
travel, and should enhance industry profitability. In the case where oil prices turn out to
be higher than the FAA forecast, FAA would
expect lower spending on air travel by consumers, higher costs for fuel to airlines and
reduced industry profitability.
In the United States, economic growth in the
near term is expected to be slow as the impact of the Federal Reserve’s moves to reduce inflation by raising interest rates are felt
by consumers and businesses. The forecast
anticipates that inflation returns to acceptable levels by 2025. Over the forecast horizon
economic growth (real GDP) remains below
2 percent as population growth and productivity growth remain lower than historic averages. The forecast does not assume any
measure of fiscal restraint will be implemented, despite government debt totals exceeding 100 percent of GDP and approaching levels that were last seen at the end of
World War 2.
The baseline forecast incorporates additional
infrastructure spending in 2024 and beyond.
However, there is considerable uncertainty
as to the magnitude, timing, and nature of
these programs that ultimately determines
the impact on the future growth of the U.S.
economy. In addition, how the U.S. will engage with the rest of the global economy over
the next several years continues to evolve.
Under the right conditions, a period of sustained high and more inclusive growth along
with increased financial stability could occur.
However, considering the recent RussiaUkraine conflict there is an increased possibility of an outcome that leads to greater
global economic fragmentation due to rising
tensions resulting in slower growth and increased financial instability.
In the United Kingdom, the European Union,
and Japan, economic growth over the next
few years will be well below rates seen over
the past few years as these regions recovered from the COVID-19 recession. Demand
growth will remain slow in these regions over
the forecast horizon as they continue to be
constrained by structural economic problems
The baseline forecast assumes that the
global economic recovery that began at the
end of 2020 will continue but at a slower pace
66
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
seats) into the fleets of regional carriers.
While the recovery in air travel demand from
the COVID downturn has been robust, FAA
is not projecting a uniform recovery across all
segments. As network carriers continue to
adjust the size and breadth of their networks
in anticipation of the post-COVID environment, they are continuing to move forward
with plans to significantly reduce the numbers of small regional jets they will need.
Strong air travel demand has not ensured financial stability for regional carriers, as the
bankruptcy filings of Republic Airways in
2016, Great Lakes Airlines in 2018 and
Trans States Airlines in 2020 have shown. Financially strong and well positioned regional
carriers may see increased opportunities for
regional flying because of the network carrier
actions, but the overall impact will most likely
reduce opportunities for many regional carriers. In addition to managing changing relationships with network carriers, regional carriers have struggled with pilot shortages that
were exacerbated during the pandemic recovery. The downturn prompted mainline
carriers to reduce costs by, among other
measures, offering voluntary retirements to
flight crews but, as activity picked up, they
drew replacements from the ranks of regionals, causing additional shortages for those
carriers. To attract and recruit crews, carriers
have raised salaries and offered bonuses,
further increasing financial pressures, and
possibly leading to new consolidation in the
regional airline industry. In April 2025 two regional carriers, Republic Airlines and Mesa
Airlines, announced their intention to merge
which should result in a stronger company
due to its larger scale. However, the merger
could result in some service cutbacks to
smaller communities and less competitioninduced growth.
(high debt, slow population growth, weak
public finances, for example) and political instability. In most of the major advanced economies, governments need to shore up their
finances after the increases in government
spending to offset the impacts of COVID-19.
If implemented, higher tax rates or reduced
government spending would further contribute to suppressing demand growth and a delayed strengthening of finances could result
in even greater impacts. The current forecasts call for strong passenger growth for
travel between the United States and other
world regions, especially over the next few
years. An unexpected slowing of worldwide
economic activity could suppress that
growth.
Although demand has recovered and U.S.
airline finances have improved considerably
since the devastating impacts of COVID-19,
the outlook for U.S. airline finances is not
without risk. For the large network carriers,
the steps taken to pay down debt incurred
during COVID-19 have reduced the risk of
bankruptcy in the next few years. However,
many carriers have placed large orders for
new aircraft to be delivered over the next 5
years and as new contracts with labor groups
(pilots, flight attendants, mechanics) are negotiated and put into effect, U.S. airlines face
substantially higher costs. If the recovery in
demand is slower than forecast, the increase
in debt that these carriers are servicing plus
the financing of large new aircraft orders
along with higher labor costs increase the
possibility of bankruptcy or liquidation. Based
on FY 2024 data, the top 6 (American, Delta,
United, Southwest, Alaska (including Hawaiian) and JetBlue) carrier accounted for about
85.2 percent of the U.S. airline industry capacity.
The forecast assumes the addition of sizable
numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90
67
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
the next 20 years, but the mix of aircraft and
vehicles is changing as well. The expected
increases in the numbers of larger regional
jets and business jets as well as the anticipated widespread deployment of UAS and
Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) vehicles into
the national airspace system will make the
FAA’s job more challenging. For example,
with these new vehicles entering the system,
traditional aircraft may be replaced. The integration of UAS and AAM could add to the
workload above and beyond the current demand for aviation services.
Growth in the business and corporate aviation segment of the general aviation is based
largely upon the prospects for economic
growth and corporate profits. The possibility
of the reintroduction of bonus depreciation
and a potential decline in interest rates could
spur demand for business and corporate aviation. On the other hand, the most recent developments concerning tariffs with associated exceptions have introduced another
level of uncertainty into business jet transactions. While some argue that users of private
aviation are not as price sensitive as the public in their demand for services, piston aircraft
purchases at the lower end of the general
aviation may be impacted unfavorably. The
risk for general aviation is not limited to these
factors. Other influences, such as potential
environmental regulations and taxes, do not
seem to be as much of a concern in the short
term, but over the long term, uncertainties
about the direction of these influences could
be difficult to foresee.
As passenger demand and activity levels
have returned to pre-COVID levels, there
have been increasing concerns about the resources needed by the FAA to effectively
manage the nation’s airspace. The projected
increase in activity by traditional aviation sectors (airlines, general aviation) coupled with
anticipated growth in new entrant activity
(commercial space, UAS/AAM) has renewed
focus on FAA resources. In addition, much of
the physical infrastructure supporting the nation’s air traffic control system needs to be
repaired or replaced, further exacerbating
the resource concerns. FAA resources may
prove to be inadequate to effectively address
the many future challenges. Notably, in May
2025, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy
announced a major initiative to modernize
the air traffic control system for NAS efficiency and safety. Without the implementation of this initiative, the likely result would be
greater congestion and delays at airports, increasing airline passenger dissatisfaction.
Furthermore, slower growth in new entrant
activity could occur, delaying or reducing the
benefits to the nation from expansion of
these activities.
Overall activity at FAA and contract towers
rose 3.6 percent in 2024. Activity at large and
medium hub airports (64 in total) increased
4.1 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively, in
2024, resulting in congestion and delays. In
the long run, operations at large and medium
hub airports grow faster than the overall national trend and congestion and delays could
become critical limits to growth over the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand
and operations are unconstrained in that
they assume that there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. Should the infrastructure be inadequate and result in even more congestion
and delays, it is likely that the forecasts of
both demand and operations would not be
achieved.
Airspace modernization and airport expansion, including new construction, face chal-
Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at
most large hubs expected to increase over
68
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
costs for airlines and enabling greater ranges
for the same fuel payload. UAS and AAM vehicles, and the electrification of conventional
general aviation and short haul aircraft are
emerging novel aviation technologies that
may improve vehicle efficiency. The impacts
of these new entrants from a noise perspective must also be properly understood, recognizing that these vehicles may interact
with communities in different ways than the
traditional vehicles they replace. The expansion of commercial space launch activity
could also change the mix of aircraft in service, with associated impacts on aviation
noise and emissions. The magnitude of the
impacts from commercial space operations
is unknown at this time due to the various fuel
types currently used to launch vehicles.
lenges due to concerns over noise, air quality, and water quality. Concerns across the
U.S. about aviation noise have led to increasing levels of public debate. In Europe,
concerns about aviation’s environmental impacts are leading to restrictions on airport expansion activities and limits on short-haul domestic flights. Without effective measures to
mitigate and abate aviation noise, the infrastructure projects and airspace redesign efforts needed to support currently forecasted
aviation growth may be delayed. Similarly,
community concerns about environmental
and/or other considerations (e.g., privacy
concerns) associated with UAS, AAM, and
commercial space launch activity could impact growth in these aviation areas.
Technologies to improve aircraft fuel efficiency and reduce fuel consumption provide
clear economic benefits by reducing fuel
69
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios
from their August 2024 US Economic Outlook were utilized. Inputs from these alternative scenarios were used to create “Optimistic” and “Pessimistic” traffic, capacity, and
yield forecasts.
Uncertainty exists in all industries, but especially in the commercial air travel industry. As
volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for
planning purposes has increased. To help
stakeholders better prepare for the future,
the FAA provides alternative scenarios to the
baseline forecasts of airline traffic and capacity.
International passengers and traffic are primarily driven by country specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by
S&P Global. Thus, the alternative scenarios
use inputs based on ratios derived from S&P
Global’s Major Trading Partner and Other
Important Trading Partners optimistic and
pessimistic forecasts to create high and low
cases.
To create the baseline domestic forecast,
economic assumptions from S&P Global’s
November 2024 30-year U.S. Macro Baseline were used. To develop the alternative
scenarios, assumptions from S&P Global’s
30-year optimistic and pessimistic forecasts
Scenario Assumptions
rises to $99 per barrel at the end of the forecast.
The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast assumes growth slightly above trend in 2025
followed by a slowdown in 2026 and 2027.
GDP growth in 2025 comes in at about 2.1
percent but drops to 1.7 percent in subsequent years, somewhat below its long-term
potential rate. The below-trend rate in the
medium term causes the unemployment rate
to rise and peak at 4.7 percent in 2027.
Slower growth and higher unemployment
contribute to tamp down inflation, and the
Federal Reserve can begin lowering interest
rates. By the end of the decade, slowing population growth restrains potential GDP
growth, and the economy stabilizes with
GDP growth at 1.6 percent and unemployment at 4.2 percent. Crude oil prices bottom
out at $61 in 2026 before gradually rising
throughout the remainder of the forecast.
With increasing global demand, the oil price
The FAA’s high case forecast draws from
S&P Global’s optimistic forecast. The optimistic scenario is characterized by a faster
resolution to the fighting in Gaza and a cessation of fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war
resulting in lower energy prices. Near-term
differences from the baseline include GDP
growth of 5.3 percent in 2025 compared to
2.1 percent in the baseline, driven mainly by
stronger consumer spending. Consumer
spending surges in 2025 by 5.3 percent before moderating to 2.7 percent in 2026, versus 2.6 percent and 1.7 percent in the base
forecast. Stronger spending results from
lower energy expenditures and increased
confidence due to lessened political tensions. The unemployment rate still rises but
peaks about 3 tenths of a percent lower than
in the baseline.
70
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
of 2.6 percent. Over the forecast horizon,
average GDP growth is almost seven tenths
slower than in the baseline. Oil prices rise
sharply throughout the forecast to end at
$174 in 2045 -- 76 percent higher than the
baseline. As in the baseline, the
unemployment rate peaks in 2027 but is one
and a tenth percentage points higher than
the baseline at that time. It remains elevated
by about half a percentage point through the
end of the forecast.
Annual Percent Change
Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast relies
on S&P Global’s pessimistic scenario. In this
forecast, the worse outcome is mainly due to
a decline in consumer spending caused by
banking sector turmoil and tighter lending
standards. Meanwhile, worsening conflicts
in Ukraine and Gaza contribute to slumping
consumer demand and drive oil prices
higher. GDP declines in 2025 by 1.0 percent
compared to an increase of 2.1 percent in the
baseline while consumption shrinks 0.1
percent compared to the baseline’s increase
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
2019
Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita
2022
2025
2028
Pessimistic
2031
2034
Fiscal Year
Baseline
Source: S&P Global
71
2037
2040
Optimistic
2043
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
U.S. Population
Population ( millions)
400
380
360
340
320
300
2024
2025
2030
2035
2040
Fiscal Year
Pessimistic
Baseline
2044
2045
Optimistic
Source: S&P Global
U.S. Unemployment Rate
8.0
% Unemployed
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2019
2022
Source: S&P Global
2025
2028
2031
2034
Fiscal Year
Pessimistic
Baseline
72
2037
2040
Optimistic
2043
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Price per Barrel ($)
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2019
2022
2025
2028
Pessimistic
2031 2034
Fiscal Year
Baseline
2037
2040
2043
Optimistic
Source: S&P Global
goods prices, causing the optimistic CPI to
rise somewhat slower than the baseline. In
the pessimistic case, energy prices, wages
and import prices all rise more rapidly compared to the baseline.
The price of energy is one of the drivers in
the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. In the optimistic case, slow
growth of energy prices and import prices
counteracts faster growth of other consumer
Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers
Index Value (2024 = 100)
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
2019
2022
2025
2028
Pessimistic
2031
2034
Fiscal Year
Baseline
Source: S&P Global
73
2037
2040
Optimistic
2043
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Alternative Forecasts
Enplanements
passengers in the optimistic case are 9 percent above the baseline, totaling 1.8 billion,
153 million greater than in the baseline.
In the baseline forecast, system enplanements are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2025-2045 (with domestic
and international passengers increasing at
rates of 2.4 and 3.1 percent, respectively).
The pessimistic case is characterized by a
period of weakened consumer spending
combined with high inflation, leading to
higher interest rates, and curtailed investment. In this scenario, enplanements grow
an average of 1.5 percent per year (domestic
up 1.3 percent and international up 2.8 percent). In the pessimistic case, system passengers in 2045 are 19 percent below the
baseline case, totaling 1.3 billion, or 322 million fewer than in the baseline.
In the optimistic case, enplanements grow at
a slightly quicker pace, averaging 3.0 percent per year (up 2.9 percent domestically
and 3.2 percent internationally). This scenario is marked by a more favorable business environment and lower fuel prices
which make the price of flying more affordable to business and leisure travelers. By the
end of the forecast period in 2045, system
System Enplanements
2,000
1,800
million
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031 2034
Fiscal Year
Pessimistic
Baseline
74
2037
2040
Optimistic
2043
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Revenue Passenger Miles
growth averaging 3.2 percent per year (domestic and international RPMs up 3.2 and
3.0 percent, respectively).
In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow
at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent a
year over the forecast horizon (2025-2045),
with domestic RPMs increasing 2.8 percent
annually and international RPMs growing 2.9
percent annually.
In the pessimistic case, the combination of a
slower growing economy and higher energy
prices result in RPM growth averaging 1.9
percent annually with domestic markets
growing 1.6 percent a year while international traffic grows 2.6 percent annually.
In the optimistic case, the faster growing
economy coupled with lower energy prices
drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with
System Revenue Passenger Miles
2.3
2.1
1.9
trillion
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.5
2019
2022
2025
2028
Pessimistic
2031
2034
Fiscal Year
Baseline
2037
2040
2043
Optimistic
Available Seat Miles
In the optimistic case, capacity grows somewhat faster than in the baseline forecast, averaging 3.0 percent annually system-wide
(3.1 and 2.9 percent for domestic and international markets, respectively). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline
forecast to accommodate increased travel
In the base case, system capacity is forecast
to increase an average of 2.7 percent annually over the forecast horizon with growth averaging 2.6 percent annually in domestic
markets and 2.8 percent a year in international markets.
75
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
capacity grows at a slower pace of 1.8
percent annually (domestic growth of 1.4
percent annually and international up 2.5
percent annually).
demand brought about by a more favorable
economic environment.
In the pessimistic case, demand for air travel
is lower than in the baseline, thus system
System Available Seat Miles
2,600
2,400
2,200
billion
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031 2034
Fiscal Year
Pessimistic
Baseline
2037
2040
2043
Optimistic
Load Factor
The domestic load factor increases over the
forecast horizon from 83.7 percent to 86.9
percent in the baseline, optimistic and
pessimistic scenarios.
System load factors over the 20-year
forecast period are similar for all three
forecast scenarios. System load factor rises
from 83.2 percent in 2024 to 85.8 (optimistic),
85.7 (pessimistic), and 85.8 (baseline)
percent in 2045.
The international load factor rises in the
baseline from 82.1 percent to 83.4 percent in
all three scenarios. This reflects in part the
relative growth in demand in the three
(Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific) international
regions and carriers’ ability to manage
capacity.
In all three scenarios it is assumed that carriers will keep load factors on the high side
by actively managing capacity (seats) to
more precisely meet demand (passengers).
76
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Yield
to advancements in technology, gains in
productivity, and modestly rising fuel and
other costs.
In the baseline forecast, nominal system
yield increases 1.9 percent annually, rising
from 16.11 cents in 2024 to 23.71 cents in
20454. In domestic markets, yield in the
baseline forecast rises from 15.96 cents in
2024 to 23.91 cents in 2045. International
yield rises from 16.46 cents in 2024 to 23.25
cents in 2045.
In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise
more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an
average of 3.1 percent annually, reaching
30.42 cents by 2045 (32.54 cents domestically and 26.38 cents internationally). This
scenario reflects higher general domestic inflation and markedly higher energy prices
than in the baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares to cover the higher costs of fuel,
labor, and capital.
System yield rises in the optimistic case at a
slower rate than in the baseline, up 1.5 percent annually to 21.89 cents in 2045. Domestic yield increases to 21.66 cents while international yield increases to 22.45 cents. The
moderate growth in yield in both cases is due
77
78
3.02
3.02
3.02
3.9
3.9
3.9
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Consumer Price Index
All Urban, 1982-84 = 1
Civilian Unemployment Rate Pessimistic
(%)
Baseline
Optimistic
Source: S&P Global
78.6
78.6
78.6
Refiners Acquisition Cost - Pessimistic
Average - $ Per Barrel
Baseline
Optimistic
Historical
2024E
46,712
46,712
46,712
Scenario
Real Personal Consumption Pessimistic
Expenditure per Capita
Baseline
(2017 $)
Optimistic
Economic Assumptions
Variable
5.3
4.4
4.1
3.16
3.10
3.09
77.2
68.3
60.4
46,380
47,585
48,748
2025
5.0
4.3
4.1
3.80
3.50
3.45
93.5
74.6
62.4
48,872
52,008
54,290
2030
4.5
4.2
4.0
4.52
3.91
3.79
124.6
89.4
70.7
52,139
57,140
59,959
FORECAST
2035
4.8
4.4
4.1
5.41
4.35
4.10
147.3
93.8
71.5
55,018
62,308
66,033
2040
FISCAL YEARS 2024-2045
5.0
4.4
4.2
6.48
4.85
4.45
173.9
98.9
75.5
57,902
67,629
72,046
2045
FAA FORECAST ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE A-1
35.5%
11.1%
4.6%
4.5%
2.7%
2.2%
-1.9%
-13.1%
-23.2%
-0.7%
1.9%
4.4%
-1.3%
0.0%
0.0%
3.7%
2.4%
2.2%
3.9%
1.8%
0.7%
1.1%
1.8%
2.2%
-1.6%
-0.4%
-0.3%
3.7%
2.3%
2.1%
4.9%
2.7%
1.6%
1.2%
1.8%
2.1%
-0.7%
0.0%
0.1%
3.7%
2.3%
1.9%
4.4%
2.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.8%
2.0%
-0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
3.7%
2.3%
1.8%
4.1%
1.9%
1.1%
1.1%
1.8%
2.0%
PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
2024-25 2025-30 2025-35 2025-40 2025-45
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
79
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Psgr Carrier Departures
(000s)
Nominal Passenger Yield
(cents)
* Includes domestic and international activity.
7,971.9
8,278.3
8,540.4
8,052.8
8,052.8
8,052.8
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Psgr Carrier Miles Flown
(MIL)
16.11
16.11
16.11
8,989.4
8,989.4
8,989.4
967.8
1,010.1
1,045.7
986.9
986.9
986.9
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Enplanements
(MIL)
17.47
17.13
16.97
8,733.5
9,106.2
9,417.3
1,152.1
1,191.8
1,226.1
1,148.3
1,148.3
1,148.3
1,376.2
1,423.2
1,463.9
2025
Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic
(BIL)
Baseline
Optimistic
Historical
2024E
1,379.6
1,379.6
1,379.6
Scenario
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Available Seat Miles
(BIL)
System Aviation Activity
Variable
19.89
18.79
18.47
9,054.2
9,891.0
10,485.0
8,493.5
9,191.4
9,696.5
1,045.8
1,142.7
1,212.8
1,269.9
1,364.6
1,433.1
1,493.2
1,603.5
1,683.3
2030
22.66
20.45
19.85
9,668.4
10,956.2
11,669.7
9,294.1
10,392.1
11,010.3
1,156.4
1,310.3
1,398.2
1,424.6
1,578.4
1,663.9
1,666.3
1,844.2
1,942.9
FORECAST
2035
26.23
21.99
20.80
10,095.8
11,976.0
12,940.9
9,967.6
11,639.9
12,516.0
1,249.3
1,482.0
1,604.9
1,561.2
1,804.2
1,930.8
1,823.5
2,104.6
2,250.8
2040
1,344.5
1,666.9
1,819.6
1,704.6
2,051.2
2,215.5
1,990.0
2,390.9
2,581.0
2045
30.42
23.71
21.89
10,516.3
13,037.5
14,208.3
10,662.3
12,979.5
14,078.3
FISCAL YEARS 2024-2045
FAA FORECAST OF AVIATION ACTIVITY*
TABLE A-2
8.5%
6.4%
5.3%
-2.8%
1.3%
4.8%
-1.0%
2.8%
6.1%
-1.9%
2.3%
6.0%
0.3%
3.8%
6.8%
-0.2%
3.2%
6.1%
2.6%
1.9%
1.7%
0.7%
1.7%
2.2%
1.3%
2.1%
2.6%
1.6%
2.5%
3.0%
2.0%
2.7%
3.2%
1.6%
2.4%
2.8%
2.6%
1.8%
1.6%
1.0%
1.9%
2.2%
1.5%
2.3%
2.6%
1.8%
2.6%
2.9%
2.1%
2.8%
3.1%
1.9%
2.6%
2.9%
2.7%
1.7%
1.4%
1.0%
1.8%
2.1%
1.5%
2.3%
2.6%
1.7%
2.6%
2.9%
2.0%
2.8%
3.1%
1.9%
2.6%
2.9%
2.8%
1.6%
1.3%
0.9%
1.8%
2.1%
1.5%
2.3%
2.5%
1.7%
2.5%
2.8%
2.0%
2.8%
3.0%
1.9%
2.6%
2.9%
PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
2024-25 2025-30 2025-35 2025-40 2025-45
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
80
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Psgr Carrier Departures
(000s)
Nominal Passenger Yield
(cents)
*Includes mainline and regional carriers.
6,055.7
6,363.8
6,621.8
6,207.6
6,207.6
6,207.6
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Psgr Carrier Miles Flown
(MIL)
15.96
15.96
15.96
8,169.9
8,169.9
8,169.9
834.3
876.7
912.0
858.5
858.5
858.5
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Enplanements
(MIL)
17.67
17.23
17.01
7,891.5
8,262.8
8,571.4
792.6
832.8
866.4
804.9
804.9
804.9
940.2
987.9
1,027.7
2025
Revenue Passenger Miles Pessimistic
(BIL)
Baseline
Optimistic
Historical
2024E
961.3
961.3
961.3
Scenario
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Domestic Aviation
Activity
Available Seat Miles
(BIL)
Variable
20.64
18.86
18.34
8,120.1
8,944.5
9,534.7
6,366.8
7,047.8
7,545.5
895.5
990.9
1,060.6
863.6
955.6
1,022.8
1,005.4
1,112.6
1,190.8
2030
24.09
20.58
19.63
8,586.8
9,848.8
10,566.1
6,866.2
7,923.9
8,548.7
980.7
1,131.2
1,220.0
958.2
1,105.2
1,192.0
1,106.7
1,276.6
1,376.8
FORECAST
2035
27.98
22.15
20.58
8,868.7
10,686.9
11,636.9
7,257.3
8,811.5
9,651.8
1,048.3
1,271.8
1392.6
1,037.7
1,259.1
1,378.6
1,195.9
1,450.9
1,588.6
2040
1,115.6
1,422.2
1,569.1
1,119.0
1,426.5
1,573.8
1,288.2
1,642.3
1,811.9
2045
32.54
23.91
21.66
9,131.9
11,549.8
12,684.3
7,647.5
9,758.3
10,770.8
FISCAL YEARS 2024-2045
10.7%
8.0%
6.6%
-3.4%
1.1%
4.9%
-2.4%
2.5%
6.7%
-2.8%
2.1%
6.2%
-1.5%
3.5%
7.6%
-2.2%
2.8%
6.9%
3.2%
1.8%
1.5%
0.6%
1.6%
2.2%
1.0%
2.1%
2.6%
1.4%
2.5%
3.1%
1.7%
2.8%
3.4%
1.4%
2.4%
3.0%
3.2%
1.8%
1.4%
0.8%
1.8%
2.1%
1.3%
2.2%
2.6%
1.6%
2.6%
3.0%
1.9%
2.9%
3.2%
1.6%
2.6%
3.0%
3.1%
1.7%
1.3%
0.8%
1.7%
2.1%
1.2%
2.2%
2.5%
1.5%
2.5%
2.9%
1.8%
2.8%
3.1%
1.6%
2.6%
2.9%
3.1%
1.7%
1.2%
0.7%
1.7%
2.0%
1.2%
2.2%
2.5%
1.5%
2.4%
2.7%
1.7%
2.7%
3.0%
1.6%
2.6%
2.9%
PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
2024-25 2025-30 2025-35 2025-40 2025-45
FAA FORECAST OF DOMESTIC AVIATION ACTIVITY
TABLE A-3
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
81
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Psgr Carrier Miles Flown
(MIL)
Psgr Carrier Departures
(000s)
Nominal Passenger Yield
(cents)
*Includes mainline and regional carriers.
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Enplanements
(MIL)
16.46
16.46
16.46
819.6
819.6
819.6
1,845.2
1,845.2
1,845.2
128.4
128.4
128.4
343.3
343.3
343.3
418.3
418.3
418.3
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Baseline
Optimistic
Historical
2024E
Scenario
Revenue Passenger Miles
(BIL)
Variable
International Aviation
Activity
Available Seat Miles
(BIL)
17.05
16.90
16.87
842.0
843.4
845.9
1,916.2
1,914.5
1,918.6
133.5
133.4
133.7
359.5
358.9
359.6
436.0
435.3
436.2
2025
18.27
18.62
18.79
934.1
946.5
950.3
2,126.6
2,143.7
2,151.0
150.4
151.9
152.2
406.3
409.0
410.3
487.8
490.9
492.5
2030
19.72
20.14
20.40
1,081.6
1,107.4
1,103.7
2,427.9
2,468.2
2,461.5
175.7
179.1
178.2
466.4
473.1
471.9
559.6
567.6
566.2
FORECAST
2035
22.76
21.61
21.34
1,227.1
1,289.1
1,304.0
2,710.3
2,828.4
2,864.2
201.0
210.2
212.3
523.5
545.2
552.2
627.6
653.7
662.1
2040
FISCAL YEARS 2024-2045
26.38
23.25
22.45
1,384.5
1,487.6
1,524.0
3,014.8
3,221.2
3,307.4
228.9
244.8
250.5
585.6
624.7
641.7
701.8
748.6
769.1
2045
3.6%
2.7%
2.5%
2.7%
2.9%
3.2%
3.8%
3.8%
4.0%
3.9%
3.9%
4.1%
4.7%
4.5%
4.7%
4.2%
4.1%
4.3%
1.4%
2.0%
2.2%
2.1%
2.3%
2.4%
2.1%
2.3%
2.3%
2.4%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.6%
2.7%
2.3%
2.4%
2.5%
1.5%
1.8%
1.9%
2.5%
2.8%
2.7%
2.4%
2.6%
2.5%
2.8%
3.0%
2.9%
2.6%
2.8%
2.8%
2.5%
2.7%
2.6%
1.9%
1.7%
1.6%
2.5%
2.9%
2.9%
2.3%
2.6%
2.7%
2.8%
3.1%
3.1%
2.5%
2.8%
2.9%
2.5%
2.7%
2.8%
2.2%
1.6%
1.4%
2.5%
2.9%
3.0%
2.3%
2.6%
2.8%
2.7%
3.1%
3.2%
2.5%
2.8%
2.9%
2.4%
2.7%
2.9%
PERCENT AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
2024-25 2025-30 2025-35 2025-40 2025-45
FAA FORECAST OF INTERNATIONAL AVIATION ACTIVITY*
TABLE A-4
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy
Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of
uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve not only statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment
and reliance on industry knowledge and the
forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet reflected in recent results.
The FAA’s annual Aerospace Forecast is no
exception. Given the volatile nature of the
U.S. airline industry, it is not surprising that
each year’s forecast would contain a certain
degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA
forecasters have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the models would then be
able to adjust for the predictable variance
from actual results.
The table below contains the mean absolute
percent errors for the projected values versus the actual results for U.S. carriers’ system operations along with the projected values versus actual results for U.S. GDP.
Each metric has five values showing the relative forecast variance by the number of
years in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the “3 Years”
column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute percent error was 5.3 percent for ASM
forecasts prepared 3 years in advance. For
the period under examination, preparation of
the forecasts for FY 2010 through FY 2019
occurred in FY 2006 through FY 2016. Forecasts for the period FY 2023 through FY
2024 were prepared in 2019 through 2023. 60
The table below presents an analysis of the
variance from historical results for a primary
forecast assumption along with five key forecast metrics during the FY 2010-2019, and
2023-24 forecast period. Although many of
the forecasts prepared for the period examined were developed while the U.S. airline industry was going through upheaval, the
FAA’s forecast methodology remained consistent during this time. Given the sudden
nature of the COVID-19 pandemic and its unprecedented impacts to global aviation, forecasts developed for FY 2020-22 period were
excluded from this analysis as inclusion of
forecasts for these years might lead to inconclusive or inaccurate implications about the
accuracy of FAA’s current forecast methodology.
It should be noted that the first forecasted year
for each respective fiscal year is that very same
year. Therefore, FY 2010’s first forecasted year
is FY 2010, and the third forecasted year is FY
2012.
60
82
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
U.S. AIR CARRIERS
SYSTEM SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITY
FORECAST EVALUATION
Forecast
Variable
U.S. Real GDP
ASMs
RPMs
Passenger Enplanements
Mainline Domestic Yield
Commercial Operations at FAA/Contract Towers
Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2010-19, FY 2023-24)
(Forecast Variance from Actual)
Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
4 Years
5 Years
1.2%
1.0%
0.9%
0.7%
2.4%
0.8%
2.6%
2.2%
1.8%
1.8%
5.3%
2.8%
Presenting forecast variances from actual
data in such a manner simplifies a review of
longer-term trends. Typically, one would expect the variances to increase as the forecast
year moves farther from the year the forecast
is prepared. Presenting forecast variances
in this way allows an examination of changes
in the relative variances by time horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur.
4.3%
4.9%
4.5%
4.3%
9.6%
6.8%
6.2%
8.4%
7.4%
7.2%
10.7%
9.7%
7.5%
10.4%
9.5%
9.2%
9.0%
13.0%
metrics examined have increasing variances
as the forecast time horizon lengthens.
Third, the variance between RPMs and Enplanements is relatively constant, even as
the time horizon increases suggesting that
over the long run, enplanement growth is a
good indicator of RPM growth. Finally, the
variance of Commercial Operations at
FAA/Contract Towers relative to ASMs widens considerably after 2 years. This suggests that, beyond a 2-year forecast horizon,
carriers are accommodating changes in capacity by means other than adjusting operations. Many carriers have been systematically reducing the number of smaller regional
jets in their fleets, replacing them with larger
70-90 seat aircraft. This has allowed carriers
to increase capacity without increasing
flights.
Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, the forecast variances for GDP, a key exogenous variable,
are similar to the variances of the key traffic
measures, Passenger Enplanements and
RPMs. This suggests that a substantial
amount of the forecast variance for the traffic
variables is attributable to the forecast error
in the exogenous variables. Second, all the
83
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
Appendix C: Forecast Tables
84
FISCAL YEAR 2024
76.38
2.5%
3.110
3.2%
Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average
(Dollars per barrel)
79.55
Year over year change
-4.2%
Consumer Price Index
(1982-84 = 1)
Year over year change
3.081
3.2%
46,551
1.1%
Source: S&P Global
FISCAL YEAR 2025
FISCAL YEAR 2026
3.132
3.2%
81.81
10.3%
46,767
1.6%
3.141
2.6%
76.79
-6.9%
47,080
2.0%
3.164
2.7%
71.04
-10.7%
47,312
1.9%
3.179
2.2%
68.71
-10.0%
47,528
2.1%
3.214
2.6%
67.31
-17.7%
47,683
2.0%
3.242
3.2%
66.27
-13.7%
47,818
1.6%
3.269
3.3%
63.75
-10.3%
47,948
1.3%
3.302
3.9%
61.28
-10.8%
48,081
1.2%
3.324
3.4%
58.83
-12.6%
48,281
1.3%
3.346
3.2%
60.74
-8.3%
48,467
1.4%
1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.
46,447
1.9%
ECONOMIC VARIABLE
Real Personal Consumption
Expenditure per Capita
(2017 $)
Year over year change
U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE 1
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
85
86
Source: S&P Global
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
2.4%
2.1%
1.7%
1.7%
23,634
25,790
28,072
30,454
32,930
16,675
20,546
20,321
21,198
21,963
22,493
23,156
1.8%
1.9%
1.8%
1.8%
47,585
52,008
57,140
62,308
67,629
36,370
41,958
41,086
43,693
45,424
45,953
46,712
2.6%
2.7%
2.3%
2.3%
3.20
3.61
4.03
4.49
5.00
2.17
2.54
2.58
2.67
2.88
3.02
3.12
REAL PERSONAL
CONSUMPTION
REAL GROSS
CONSUMER PRICE
DOMESTIC PRODUCT EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA
INDEX
(Billions 2017 $)
(2017 $)
(1982-84=1.00)
U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS
TABLE 2
0.4%
-13.1%
2.7%
1.9%
68.33
74.58
89.41
93.85
98.86
74.61
59.77
43.15
58.91
93.50
78.56
78.63
REFINERS'
ACQUISITION COST
AVERAGE
(Dollars per barrel)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
CALENDAR YEAR
87
1.9%
1.5%
1.7%
1.7%
1,907
2,069
2,247
2,456
2,679
1,439
1,744
1,656
1,754
1,828
1,856
1,879
CANADA
1.8%
1.6%
2.0%
1.9%
28,274
31,221
34,332
37,584
40,996
21,721
26,007
24,611
26,169
27,218
27,483
27,819
1.7%
2.1%
2.9%
2.8%
6,004
6,894
7,963
9,168
10,529
4,643
5,413
5,052
5,413
5,627
5,758
5,879
Source: S&P Global, Comparative World Overview Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
4.4%
3.7%
3.7%
3.5%
37,731
45,431
54,082
63,746
74,359
19,950
30,737
30,470
32,503
33,555
34,995
36,375
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(In Billions of 2019 U.S. Dollars)
JAPAN / PACIFIC BASIN /
EUROPE /
LATIN AMERICA / CHINA / OTHER ASIA /
AUSTRALIA / NEW
AFRICA /
CARIBBEAN /
ZEALAND
MIDDLE EAST
MEXICO
INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION
TABLE 3
2.8%
2.5%
2.6%
2.5%
101,188
115,521
131,277
148,459
167,064
67,172
87,749
85,110
90,562
93,462
96,082
98,687
WORLD
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
88
2.3%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
27,973
30,548
33,317
36,269
39,395
19,986
24,588
23,923
25,372
26,054
26,787
27,471
1.2%
0.9%
1.3%
1.2%
14,337
15,331
16,356
17,349
18,352
12,033
13,595
12,752
13,552
14,039
14,109
14,212
EUROZONE
1.5%
1.0%
1.2%
1.2%
2,974
3,168
3,363
3,569
3,781
2,398
2,851
2,557
2,777
2,911
2,921
2,945
UNITED
KINGDOM
Source: S&P Global, Comparative World Overview Tables (Interim Forecast, Monthly)
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
CALENDAR YEAR
NORTH
AMERICA
(USMCA)
0.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.7%
5,203
5,417
5,626
5,828
5,986
4,731
5,117
4,902
5,038
5,084
5,159
5,153
JAPAN
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
(In Billions of 2019 U.S. Dollars)
6.4%
4.2%
4.2%
3.8%
18,759
23,131
28,197
33,769
39,639
7,550
14,278
14,594
15,828
16,295
17,150
18,002
CHINA
INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS – SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES
TABLE 4
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
89
2.2%
2.1%
2.6%
2.4%
877
991
1,131
1,272
1,422
635
813
465
508
739
811
858
DOMESTIC
3.7%
3.9%
3.0%
3.1%
133
152
179
210
245
77
104
49
49
91
111
128
INTERNATIONAL
Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
1
Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
2.4%
2.3%
2.6%
2.5%
1,010
1,143
1,310
1,482
1,667
712
917
513
557
830
922
987
TOTAL
REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions)
2.7%
3.5%
2.9%
2.7%
833
956
1,105
1,259
1,426
555
752
423
476
696
763
805
DOMESTIC
2.9%
4.5%
2.8%
2.8%
359
409
473
545
625
231
292
129
92
213
290
343
INTERNATIONAL
2.7%
3.8%
2.8%
2.8%
1,192
1,365
1,578
1,804
2,051
786
1,044
551
567
909
1,053
1,148
TOTAL
REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)
TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. PASSENGER TRAFFIC
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1
TABLE 5
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
90
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
2.5%
2.8%
2.6%
2.6%
2.7%
3.5%
2.9%
2.7%
833
956
1,105
1,259
1,426
555
752
423
476
696
763
805
84.3
85.9
86.6
86.8
86.9
81.7
85.2
68.3
72.3
83.4
84.1
83.7
DOMESTIC
RPMs
% LOAD
(BIL)
FACTOR
Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
1
Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
988
1,113
1,277
1,451
1,642
679
883
618
658
834
907
961
FISCAL YEAR
Historical
ASMs
(BIL)
2.9%
4.1%
2.7%
2.7%
435
491
568
654
749
281
352
178
171
278
348
418
ASMs
(BIL)
2.9%
4.5%
2.8%
2.8%
359
409
473
545
625
231
292
129
92
213
290
343
82.5
83.3
83.4
83.4
83.4
82.1
82.9
72.3
53.5
76.6
83.4
82.1
INTERNATIONAL
RPMs
% LOAD
(BIL)
FACTOR
2.6%
3.2%
2.6%
2.6%
1,423
1,604
1,844
2,105
2,391
961
1,235
796
829
1,112
1,255
1,380
ASMs
(BIL)
2.7%
3.8%
2.8%
2.8%
1,192
1,365
1,578
1,804
2,051
786
1,044
551
567
909
1,053
1,148
83.7
85.1
85.6
85.7
85.8
81.8
84.5
69.2
68.5
81.7
83.9
83.2
SYSTEM
RPMs
% LOAD
(BIL)
FACTOR
SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1
TABLE 6
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
91
2.9%
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
37
40
44
48
53
25
28
11
6
23
32
36
5.2%
3.9%
3.5%
3.6%
84
98
119
144
172
40
63
32
43
65
72
81
-1.2%
11.2%
2.7%
2.6%
12
14
16
18
20
13
13
6
1
3
7
11
Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
1
Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
3.7%
3.9%
3.0%
3.1%
133
152
179
210
245
77
104
49
49
91
111
128
2.7%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
162
179
198
218
239
109
121
48
27
100
141
159
4.8%
4.2%
3.7%
3.8%
127
148
183
222
266
63
96
49
60
97
106
121
0.5%
11.4%
2.8%
2.7%
70
82
93
105
119
59
75
31
4
15
43
63
2.9%
4.5%
2.8%
2.8%
359
409
473
545
625
231
292
129
92
213
290
343
REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS
REVENUE PASSENGER MILES
LATIN
TOTAL
LATIN
TOTAL
ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL ATLANTIC AMERICA PACIFIC INTERNATIONAL
(Mil)
(Mil)
(Mil)
(Mil)
(Bil)
(Bil)
(Bil)
(Bil)
TOTAL SCHEDULED U.S. INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS1
TABLE 7
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
92
3.7%
4.8%
3.0%
2.7%
98
115
131
148
167
56
89
17
24
71
87
93
ATLANTIC
5.2%
4.6%
3.4%
3.2%
112
133
156
182
210
53
89
33
66
88
100
107
LATIN AMERICA
1.8%
9.3%
3.7%
3.3%
38
47
55
63
72
27
44
9
4
15
29
35
PACIFIC
2.7%
3.9%
2.5%
2.4%
33
37
42
47
53
22
32
7
5
21
28
32
Source: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce;
data also received from Transport Canada.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
CALENDAR YEAR
U.S./CANADA
TRANSBORDER
TOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)
TOTAL PASSENGER TRAFFIC TO/FROM THE UNITED STATES
U.S. AND FOREIGN FLAG CARRIERS
TABLE 8
3.8%
5.2%
3.2%
3.0%
281
332
384
441
502
158
253
67
99
195
244
267
TOTAL
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
93
1.7%
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
155.2
157.9
161.1
164.7
168.3
121.9
141.1
141.1
144.9
149.0
154.6
154.9
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
227.4
229.0
230.0
231.1
232.4
216.4
221.3
217.1
198.6
215.4
224.9
226.7
Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.
1
Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
1.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
171.9
174.5
177.5
180.8
184.2
139.7
157.4
153.1
153.4
161.5
169.3
171.3
AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE
DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM
(Seats/Mile)
(Seats/Mile)
(Seats/Mile)
0.5%
1.3%
0.3%
0.3%
950.0
964.4
977.0
990.0
1,003.0
874.9
924.9
909.2
937.3
941.2
940.4
937.6
-0.8%
0.6%
-0.2%
-0.3%
2,690.0
2,693.1
2,642.2
2,593.5
2,552.3
2,988.0
2,813.9
2,647.9
1,859.6
2,347.5
2,610.0
2,673.1
0.4%
1.4%
0.2%
0.2%
1,179.9
1,194.1
1,204.6
1,217.4
1,230.5
1,104.2
1,138.8
1,073.7
1,018.9
1,094.8
1,141.5
1,163.5
AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH
DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM
(Miles)
(Miles)
(Miles)
SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE AND PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS' FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS1
TABLE 9
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
94
3.2%
2.1%
2.6%
2.5%
747
844
964
1,084
1,212
473
654
370
402
613
696
731
DOMESTIC
3.8%
3.9%
3.0%
3.1%
131
149
176
207
241
75
100
47
47
89
109
126
INTERNATIONAL
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
3.3%
2.4%
2.6%
2.6%
878
993
1,140
1,290
1,453
548
754
417
449
701
805
857
SYSTEM
REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS
(Millions)
3.2%
3.4%
2.9%
2.7%
772
886
1,024
1,166
1,320
480
674
376
422
634
710
747
DOMESTIC
2.9%
4.5%
2.8%
2.8%
357
407
471
543
622
230
290
127
90
211
289
342
INTERNATIONAL
3.1%
3.8%
2.8%
2.7%
1,129
1,293
1,495
1,708
1,942
710
963
503
512
845
998
1,088
SYSTEM
REVENUE PASSENGER MILES
(Billions)
SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC
U. S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 10
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
95
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
3.1%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
3.2%
3.4%
2.9%
2.7%
772
886
1,024
1,166
1,320
480
674
376
422
634
710
747
84.5
86.2
86.9
87.1
87.1
82.7
85.8
68.7
72.6
83.9
84.3
83.9
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
914
1,028
1,179
1,339
1,515
581
785
547
582
756
842
890
FISCAL YEAR
Historical
ASMs
(BIL)
DOMESTIC
RPMs
% LOAD
(BIL)
FACTOR
2.9%
4.1%
2.7%
2.7%
433
489
565
651
745
279
349
176
169
276
346
416
2.9%
4.5%
2.8%
2.8%
357
407
471
543
622
230
290
127
90
211
289
342
82.5
83.3
83.4
83.4
83.5
82.2
83.0
72.4
53.4
76.6
83.4
82.1
INTERNATIONAL
ASMs
RPMs
% LOAD
(BIL)
(BIL)
FACTOR
3.0%
3.1%
2.6%
2.6%
1,347
1,516
1,744
1,990
2,260
860
1,134
723
751
1,032
1,188
1,306
ASMs
(BIL)
3.1%
3.8%
2.8%
2.7%
1,129
1,293
1,495
1,708
1,942
710
963
503
512
845
998
1,088
SYSTEM
RPMs
(BIL)
SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 11
83.8
85.3
85.7
85.9
85.9
82.5
85.0
69.6
68.2
81.9
84.1
83.3
% LOAD
FACTOR
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
96
2.9%
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
36.9
40.2
44.1
48.4
52.9
24.5
27.9
10.8
5.7
22.6
31.8
36.3
ATLANTIC
5.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.6%
82.0
95.0
116.0
140.4
167.7
37.2
59.2
30.3
40.9
63.3
69.7
78.9
LATIN AMERICA
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
-1.2%
11.2%
2.7%
2.6%
12.1
14.0
15.9
18.0
20.3
12.9
13.2
5.6
0.8
2.6
7.4
10.9
PACIFIC
REVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)
3.8%
3.9%
3.0%
3.1%
131.0
149.1
176.0
206.7
240.9
74.6
100.2
46.7
47.4
88.5
109.0
126.1
TOTAL
SCHEDULED INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 12
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
97
2.8%
1.7%
2.0%
2.0%
2.7%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
162
179
198
218
239
109
121
48
27
100
141
159
82.7
82.7
82.7
82.7
82.7
82.9
82.9
69.3
47.8
78.1
82.6
82.5
% LOAD
RPMs (BIL) FACTOR
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
196
216
239
264
290
131
146
69
57
128
171
193
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
ASMs
(BIL)
FISCAL YEAR
ATLANTIC
4.3%
4.2%
3.7%
3.8%
147
173
213
259
311
78
112
63
92
121
122
141
4.9%
4.2%
3.7%
3.8%
125
146
180
219
263
62
94
48
59
96
104
120
84.8
84.8
84.8
84.8
84.8
79.2
83.5
76.2
63.5
79.6
85.8
84.8
LATIN AMERICA
ASMs
RPMs
% LOAD
(BIL)
(BIL)
FACTOR
1.1%
9.2%
2.3%
2.4%
90
100
113
128
145
70
91
44
20
27
54
83
ASMs
(BIL)
0.5%
11.4%
2.8%
2.7%
70
82
93
105
119
59
75
31
4
15
43
63
78.1
82.1
82.1
82.1
82.1
84.1
82.6
71.8
22.4
56.3
80.5
76.6
% LOAD
RPMs (BIL) FACTOR
PACIFIC
BY INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL REGIONS
2.9%
4.1%
2.7%
2.7%
433
489
565
651
745
279
349
176
169
276
346
416
ASMs
(BIL)
SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 13
2.9%
4.5%
2.8%
2.8%
357
407
471
543
622
230
290
127
90
211
289
342
RPMs (BIL)
INTERNATIONAL
82.5
83.3
83.4
83.4
83.5
82.2
83.0
72.4
53.4
76.6
83.4
82.1
% LOAD
FACTOR
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
98
0.9%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
173.2
175.8
178.9
182.4
186.0
152.0
166.0
166.7
171.7
171.0
172.2
172.7
0.7%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
254.6
257.1
259.6
262.1
264.6
231.7
251.6
256.2
255.4
260.0
256.3
254.1
ATLANTIC
(Seats/Mile)
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
DOMESTIC
(Seats/Mile)
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
185.1
187.6
190.1
192.6
195.1
171.7
177.9
178.5
178.8
180.4
183.1
184.6
LATIN AMERICA
(Seats/Mile)
-0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
280.4
284.1
287.9
291.6
295.4
287.2
269.9
256.5
205.8
265.8
278.8
279.6
PACIFIC
(Seats/Mile)
INTERNATIONAL
SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
229.7
231.3
232.2
233.3
234.5
220.9
225.6
221.8
202.4
218.3
227.2
229.0
TOTAL
(Seats/Mile)
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE 14
0.7%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
188.1
190.5
193.3
196.4
199.6
169.2
180.7
177.4
177.8
181.5
185.2
187.4
SYSTEM
(Seats/Mile)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
FISCAL YEAR
99
0.0%
1.3%
0.3%
0.3%
1,034
1,049
1,062
1,076
1,089
1,015
1,030
1,015
1,050
1,035
1,020
1,021
-0.1%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
4,388
4,450
4,485
4,508
4,530
4,433
4,330
4,442
4,756
4,435
4,428
4,370
ATLANTIC
(Miles)
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
DOMESTIC
(Miles)
-0.6%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
1,523
1,543
1,555
1,563
1,571
1,660
1,582
1,577
1,434
1,517
1,498
1,520
LATIN AMERICA
(Miles)
1.7%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
5,810
5,846
5,843
5,849
5,854
4,587
5,709
5,634
5,809
5,835
5,841
5,800
PACIFIC
(Miles)
INTERNATIONAL
AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH
-0.9%
0.6%
-0.2%
-0.3%
2,727
2,730
2,676
2,625
2,582
3,077
2,890
2,725
1,906
2,388
2,649
2,711
TOTAL
(Miles)
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE 15
-0.1%
1.3%
0.2%
0.2%
1,287
1,301
1,311
1,324
1,337
1,296
1,278
1,207
1,140
1,206
1,241
1,270
SYSTEM
(Miles)
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
FISCAL YEAR
100
1.8%
8.0%
1.8%
1.7%
17.48
19.13
20.88
22.48
24.26
12.62
14.12
13.40
11.73
15.58
16.68
16.19
-0.6%
5.2%
-0.5%
-0.6%
17.02
16.51
16.13
15.61
15.11
17.55
16.79
15.70
13.31
16.37
17.19
16.19
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
1.8%
2.7%
1.8%
1.6%
16.93
18.64
20.18
21.64
23.29
12.84
13.47
13.48
12.84
15.35
16.93
16.48
-0.6%
0.0%
-0.6%
-0.6%
16.48
16.09
15.58
15.03
14.50
17.85
16.00
15.79
14.57
16.14
17.45
16.48
1.8%
6.3%
1.8%
1.6%
17.31
18.98
20.66
22.21
23.95
12.69
13.92
13.42
11.93
15.52
16.75
16.28
-0.6%
3.5%
-0.5%
-0.6%
16.85
16.38
15.96
15.43
14.91
17.64
16.55
15.72
13.53
16.31
17.27
16.28
REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE
DOMESTIC
INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM
CURRENT $ FY 2024 $ CURRENT $ FY 2024 $ CURRENT $ FY 2024 $
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
PASSENGER YIELDS
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE 16
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
101
2.2%
2.2%
1.8%
1.7%
17.68
19.42
21.16
22.88
24.83
12.73
14.04
13.49
11.82
15.68
17.09
17.30
-0.4%
-0.5%
-0.5%
-0.5%
17.21
16.78
16.37
15.96
15.57
18.25
17.20
16.29
13.82
16.98
17.62
17.30
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
1.2%
4.0%
1.7%
1.5%
16.32
18.07
19.38
20.59
21.95
13.33
14.20
14.60
12.59
14.64
16.75
15.69
-1.4%
1.2%
-0.6%
-0.7%
15.88
15.61
14.99
14.36
13.76
19.11
17.39
17.63
14.71
15.85
17.26
15.69
1.7%
2.2%
1.9%
1.8%
16.28
17.98
19.63
21.27
23.13
12.50
11.63
11.75
22.48
17.79
16.85
15.92
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.4%
15.84
15.54
15.19
14.84
14.50
17.92
14.25
14.19
26.27
19.27
17.37
15.92
1.8%
2.7%
1.8%
1.6%
16.93
18.65
20.18
21.65
23.29
12.84
13.47
13.48
12.84
15.35
16.93
16.48
-0.8%
0.0%
-0.5%
-0.6%
16.48
16.11
15.61
15.10
14.60
18.40
16.49
16.27
15.01
16.63
17.45
16.48
REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE
ATLANTIC
LATIN AMERICA
PACIFIC
TOTAL INTERNATIONAL
CURRENT $ FY 2024 $ CURRENT $ FY 2024 $ CURRENT $ FY 2024 $ CURRENT $ FY 2024 $
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
(Cents)
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
INTERNATIONAL PASSENGER YIELDS BY REGION
TABLE 17
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
FISCAL YEAR
102
1.5%
-13.1%
2.2%
1.6%
236.02
241.36
294.50
309.74
326.39
219.16
205.67
166.65
177.23
309.28
295.08
271.52
-1.0%
-15.3%
-0.1%
-0.6%
229.85
208.31
227.46
215.12
203.26
314.09
251.95
201.23
207.17
334.98
304.17
271.52
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
DOMESTIC
CURRENT $
FY 2024 $
(Cents)
(Cents)
1.6%
-13.1%
2.2%
1.6%
237.73
243.11
296.64
311.99
328.75
220.12
207.82
167.21
171.82
315.20
290.73
273.49
-1.0%
-15.3%
-0.1%
-0.6%
231.51
209.82
229.10
216.68
204.73
315.48
254.58
201.90
200.84
341.40
299.68
273.49
INTERNATIONAL
CURRENT $
FY 2024 $
(Cents)
(Cents)
JET FUEL PRICES
1.5%
-13.1%
2.2%
1.6%
236.63
241.99
295.27
310.55
327.23
219.49
206.42
166.84
175.49
311.23
293.57
272.23
-1.0%
-15.3%
-0.1%
-0.6%
230.44
208.85
228.05
215.68
203.79
314.57
252.86
201.45
205.13
337.10
302.61
272.23
SYSTEM
CURRENT $
FY 2024 $
(Cents)
(Cents)
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE 18
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
103
2.9%
2.8%
2.3%
2.1%
17,376
19,596
21,763
23,937
26,155
11,306
14,737
16,665
18,555
18,376
16,358
16,901
DOMESTIC
2.7%
4.1%
4.0%
3.6%
24,247
29,959
35,848
42,301
49,470
15,971
19,668
21,964
26,580
26,090
24,184
23,285
INT'L.
2.8%
3.6%
3.3%
3.0%
41,622
49,555
57,611
66,237
75,625
27,276
34,405
38,630
45,135
44,466
40,542
40,185
TOTAL
-1.4%
1.8%
1.3%
1.0%
1,243
1,334
1,408
1,467
1,515
1,495
1,468
1,136
1,318
1,447
1,219
1,221
DOMESTIC
0.4%
8.2%
2.5%
2.0%
7,120
8,181
9,074
9,890
10,639
6,246
6,984
4,130
4,836
5,625
5,522
6,580
INT'L.
0.1%
7.2%
2.3%
1.9%
8,363
9,515
10,482
11,357
12,155
7,742
8,452
5,266
6,154
7,072
6,741
7,800
TOTAL
PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS
(Millions)
2.5%
2.7%
2.2%
2.0%
18,618
20,930
23,171
25,404
27,670
12,801
16,205
17,801
19,873
19,823
17,577
18,121
DOMESTIC
2.3%
4.2%
3.1%
2.9%
49,985
59,070
68,093
77,595
87,780
35,018
42,857
43,896
51,289
51,539
47,283
47,986
TOTAL
Domestic figures from 2003 and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.
3
Domestic figures from 2000 through 2002 exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include new
reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.
2
2.1%
5.0%
3.7%
3.3%
31,367
38,140
44,922
52,191
60,110
22,217
26,652
26,095
31,416
31,715
29,706
29,865
INT'L.
TOTAL RTMS
(Millions)
Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.
1
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
ALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS
(Millions)
AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES1, 2, 3
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 19
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
104
1.6%
3.7%
2.8%
2.6%
8,748
10,182
11,567
13,016
14,549
6,786
7,426
6,669
7,603
8,763
8,352
8,436
(MILLIONS)
2.4%
5.9%
4.1%
3.5%
11,646
14,611
17,346
20,110
23,011
7,897
10,429
10,198
11,555
10,905
12,015
11,001
(MILLIONS)
PACIFIC
3.3%
6.0%
4.2%
4.0%
9,256
11,437
13,902
16,791
20,133
5,545
7,135
7,931
10,650
10,382
7,921
8,732
(MILLIONS)
OTHER
INTERNATIONAL
2.1%
5.0%
3.7%
3.3%
31,367
38,140
44,922
52,191
60,110
22,217
26,652
26,095
31,416
31,715
29,706
29,865
(MILLIONS)
TOTAL
Figures for 2003 and beyond include new reporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.
2
Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.
1
-1.1%
1.2%
2.1%
1.7%
1,717
1,911
2,107
2,273
2,417
1,990
1,661
1,296
1,608
1,666
1,418
1,696
(MILLIONS)
LATIN AMERICA
Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
ATLANTIC
INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO REVENUE TON MILES BY REGION1, 2
U.S. COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 20
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
105
2.2%
-3.8%
1.5%
1.9%
4,079
4,241
4,753
5,262
5,917
3,120
3,775
2,860
2,828
3,429
4,210
4,240
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
0
0
0
0
0
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE
Note: N.A. - Not Applicable
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
CALENDAR YEAR
LARGE NARROWBODY
2.2%
-3.8%
1.5%
1.9%
4,079
4,241
4,753
5,262
5,917
3,129
3,775
2,860
2,828
3,429
4,210
4,240
TOTAL
1.0%
-3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
523
615
701
817
937
470
553
298
281
426
550
540
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
0
0
0
0
0
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
0
0
0
0
0
43
0
0
0
0
0
0
2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE
LARGE WIDEBODY
PASSENGER JET AIRCRAFT
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 21
0.2%
-3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
523
615
701
817
937
522
553
298
281
426
550
540
TOTAL
1.9%
-3.7%
1.7%
2.0%
4,602
4,856
5,454
6,079
6,854
3,651
4,328
3,158
3,109
3,855
4,760
4,780
LARGE
JETS
-2.6%
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
24
0
0
0
0
71
60
23
23
60
72
49
1.9%
-4.2%
1.7%
2.0%
4,626
4,856
5,454
6,079
6,854
3,722
4,388
3,181
3,132
3,915
4,832
4,829
REGIONAL
JETS
TOTAL JETS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
106
1.2%
3.8%
3.4%
1.7%
189
255
264
256
265
153
216
200
213
219
225
182
-24.6%
0.0%
N.A.
N.A.
2
0
0
0
0
104
10
10
8
7
9
2
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
0
0
0
0
0
31
2
0
0
0
0
0
2 ENGINE 3 ENGINE 4 ENGINE
Note: N.A. - Not Applicable
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
CALENDAR YEAR
LARGE NARROWBODY
-3.1%
3.8%
3.3%
1.7%
191
255
264
256
265
288
228
210
221
226
234
184
TOTAL
4.5%
6.4%
3.8%
3.5%
519
653
756
900
1,039
265
419
414
434
469
494
488
2 ENGINE
CARGO JET AIRCRAFT
-7.7%
-12.3%
-5.3%
-15.4%
57
33
33
13
2
200
120
115
111
118
107
65
3 ENGINE
1.8%
2.4%
0.8%
-1.5%
127
140
137
118
93
97
112
109
110
122
133
124
4 ENGINE
LARGE WIDEBODY
U.S. MAINLINE AIR CARRIERS
TABLE 22
1.3%
3.8%
2.8%
2.4%
703
826
926
1,031
1,134
562
651
638
655
709
734
677
TOTAL
0.1%
3.8%
2.9%
2.3%
894
1,081
1,190
1,287
1,399
850
879
848
876
935
968
861
TOTAL
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
107
1.5%
4.1%
1.6%
1.6%
15,464
16,572
18,090
19,563
21,069
12,036
14,648
10,538
11,587
14,170
14,488
14,855
DOMESTIC
1.3%
3.0%
1.7%
1.7%
7,821
8,391
9,231
10,115
11,022
6,315
7,043
4,732
4,824
6,116
6,931
7,590
INT'L.
U.S. AIR CARRIERS
1.4%
3.7%
1.6%
1.6%
23,285
24,963
27,322
29,679
32,091
18,351
21,691
15,270
16,410
20,287
21,419
22,446
TOTAL
1.8%
3.5%
2.5%
2.2%
1,904
2,178
2,443
2,695
2,933
1,435
1,510
1,342
1,909
2,048
1,776
1,840
GENERAL
AVIATION
1.5%
3.7%
1.7%
1.7%
25,190
27,141
29,765
32,374
35,024
19,786
23,202
16,612
18,320
22,334
23,195
24,286
TOTAL
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Forecast assumes 1.0% annual improvement in available seat miles per gallon for U.S. Commercial Air Carrier
2
Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.
1
0.9%
-2.7%
-0.9%
-0.4%
242
225
221
221
225
221
200
204
229
233
256
249
GENERAL
AVIATION
0.9%
-2.7%
-0.9%
-0.4%
244
227
223
223
227
223
202
206
231
235
258
251
TOTAL
AVIATION GASOLINE
AIR
CARRIER
Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
JET FUEL
1, 2
(Millions of Gallons)
U.S. CIVIL AVIATION AIRCRAFT
TOTAL JET FUEL AND AVIATION GASOLINE FUEL CONSUMPTION
TABLE 23
1.5%
3.7%
1.7%
1.6%
25,434
27,368
29,989
32,597
35,250
20,009
23,404
16,818
18,550
22,569
23,452
24,537
TOTAL FUEL
CONSUMED
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
108
1.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
68.2
70.7
73.3
76.1
78.9
56.1
64.1
64.6
66.0
66.3
66.9
67.7
2.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
72.5
74.0
75.5
77.0
78.5
53.2
70.9
70.7
72.9
72.5
73.4
72.2
1.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
68.3
70.8
73.4
76.1
78.9
56.1
64.3
64.8
66.1
66.4
67.1
67.8
** Reporting carriers.
-0.1%
2.1%
0.4%
0.4%
468
477
487
496
506
464
492
494
508
488
458
458
1.9%
2.1%
0.4%
0.4%
665
679
692
706
720
503
670
675
662
640
630
652
INT'L.
(Miles)
-0.1%
2.1%
0.4%
0.4%
471
481
490
500
510
465
496
497
511
490
461
461
TOTAL
(Miles)
-1.4%
7.8%
1.8%
1.6%
14.02
15.33
16.73
18.00
19.42
15.74
11.48
10.96
9.63
12.77
13.62
13.00
CURRENT $
(Cents)
-3.9%
5.0%
-0.5%
-0.6%
13.65
13.23
12.92
12.50
12.10
22.55
14.06
13.24
11.25
13.83
14.04
13.00
2023 $
(Cents)
AVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTH REVENUE PER PASSENGER MILE**
DOMESTIC
INT'L
TOTAL
DOMESTIC
(Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile) (Seats/Mile)
(Miles)
Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
AVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE
U.S. REGIONAL CARRIER FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
TABLE 24
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
109
-1.7%
2.1%
2.6%
2.4%
130
147
167
188
210
162
159
94
106
127
115
127
DOMESTIC
-0.9%
2.1%
2.6%
2.4%
2
3
3
3
4
3
4
2
2
2
2
2
INTERNATIONAL
Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
REVENUE PASSENGERS
-1.7%
2.1%
2.6%
2.4%
132
149
170
192
214
164
163
96
108
129
118
130
TOTAL
(In Millions)
-1.8%
4.2%
3.0%
2.8%
60,759
69,936
81,429
93,365
106,469
75,028
78,358
46,667
53,699
61,839
52,787
58,289
DOMESTIC
0.9%
4.2%
3.0%
2.8%
1,597
1,838
2,140
2,454
2,798
1,347
2,376
1,229
1,221
1,335
1,348
1,532
INTERNATIONAL
76,375
80,734
47,896
54,921
63,175
54,136
59,820
TOTAL
-1.7%
4.2%
3.0%
2.8%
62,356
71,774
83,568
95,818
109,267
REVENUE PASSENGER MILES
SCHEDULED PASSENGER TRAFFIC
U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS
TABLE 25
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
110
-2.3%
4.0%
2.8%
2.7%
74,187
84,852
97,831
111,811
127,319
98,454
98,120
70,861
75,964
77,916
65,422
71,343
-1.8%
4.2%
3.0%
2.8%
60,759
69,936
81,429
93,365
106,469
75,028
78,358
46,667
53,699
61,839
52,787
58,289
DOMESTIC
RPMs
(MIL)
81.9
82.4
83.2
83.5
83.6
76.2
79.9
65.9
70.7
79.4
80.7
81.7
% LOAD
FACTOR
Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
YEAR
ASMs
(MIL)
0.3%
4.0%
2.8%
2.7%
2,020
2,311
2,664
3,045
3,467
1,857
3,116
1,812
1,836
1,833
1,685
1,943
ASMs
(MIL)
0.9%
4.2%
3.0%
2.8%
1,597
1,838
2,140
2,454
2,798
1,347
2,376
1,229
1,221
1,335
1,348
1,532
79.0
79.5
80.3
80.6
80.7
72.5
76.3
67.9
66.5
72.8
80.0
78.8
INTERNATIONAL
RPMs
% LOAD
(MIL)
FACTOR
-2.2%
4.0%
2.8%
2.7%
76,207
87,163
100,495
114,856
130,786
100,311
101,236
72,673
77,800
79,749
67,107
73,286
ASMs
(MIL)
-1.7%
4.2%
3.0%
2.8%
62,356
71,774
83,568
95,818
109,267
76,375
80,734
47,896
54,921
63,175
54,136
59,820
TOTAL
RPMs
(MIL)
SCHEDULED PASSENGER CAPACITY, TRAFFIC, AND LOAD FACTORS
U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS
TABLE 26
81.8
82.3
83.2
83.4
83.5
76.1
79.7
65.9
70.6
79.2
80.7
81.6
% LOAD
FACTOR
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
111
-4.2%
-1.2%
-1.5%
-1.8%
Note: N.A. - Not Applicable
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
237
221
203
183
164
440
374
276
268
247
245
240
-3.5%
-1.2%
-1.5%
-1.8%
55
52
47
43
38
92
72
74
69
59
57
56
LESS THAN 10 TO 19
9 SEATS
SEATS
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
AS OF
JANUARY 1
-16.1%
-1.2%
-1.5%
-1.8%
7
6
6
5
5
82
19
20
16
18
7
7
20 TO 30
SEATS
-24.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3
3
3
3
3
144
11
11
10
3
3
3
PROP
-21.2%
0.0%
N.A.
N.A.
1
0
0
0
0
28
0
0
0
3
1
1
JET
19
20
22
25
30
99
39
40
38
49
24
21
PROP
-23.6% -10.5%
0.0% -9.5%
N.A.
1.5%
N.A.
2.3%
4
3
3
3
3
172
11
11
10
6
4
4
TOTAL
-1.6%
2.7%
1.5%
2.1%
1,406
1,440
1,634
1,862
2,114
1,728
1,846
1,434
1,406
1,623
1,435
1,369
JET
-1.9%
2.5%
1.5%
2.1%
1,425
1,460
1,656
1,887
2,144
1,827
1,885
1,474
1,444
1,672
1,459
1,390
TOTAL
REGIONAL AIRCRAFT
31 TO 40 SEATS
OVER 40 SEATS
PASSENGER AIRCRAFT
U.S. REGIONAL CARRIERS
TABLE 27
-6.7%
-1.8%
-1.3%
-1.5%
321
302
282
260
240
857
515
421
401
376
336
327
NON JET
-1.8%
2.7%
1.5%
2.1%
1,407
1,440
1,634
1,862
2,114
1,756
1,846
1,434
1,406
1,626
1,436
1,370
JET
-3.0%
1.8%
1.0%
1.6%
1,728
1,742
1,916
2,122
2,354
2,613
2,361
1,855
1,807
2,002
1,772
1,697
TOTAL
TOTAL FLEET
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
112
126,690
125,265
124,340
123,800
123,925
139,519
128,926
124,059
126,735
126,076
127,573
127,105
-0.7%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
-2.2%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.3%
11,580
11,275
11,085
10,950
10,925
15,900
12,470
11,947
11,885
11,652
11,727
11,645
-0.8%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
138,270
136,540
135,425
134,750
134,850
155,419
141,396
136,006
138,620
137,728
139,300
138,750
TOTAL
1.2%
0.6%
0.7%
1.0%
11,100
11,425
11,935
12,660
13,540
9,369
10,242
10,317
10,391
10,713
10,951
11,030
TURBO
PROP
FIXED WING
2.8%
2.9%
2.9%
2.7%
17,505
20,235
23,335
26,565
29,865
11,484
14,888
15,316
15,270
16,126
16,537
17,010
TURBINE
TURBO
JET
2.1%
2.0%
2.1%
2.1%
28,605
31,660
35,270
39,225
43,405
20,853
25,130
25,633
25,661
26,839
27,488
28,040
TOTAL
ROTORCRAFT
-1.4%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
2,955
3,100
3,230
3,335
3,435
3,588
3,089
2,930
3,012
2,748
2,909
2,930
0.1%
1.9%
1.9%
1.7%
10,420
11,440
12,520
13,620
14,715
10,102
10,198
9,746
10,032
9,769
10,051
10,230
1.4%
0.4%
0.6%
0.7%
30,425
31,190
32,325
33,475
34,670
24,784
27,449
26,367
27,960
28,062
30,114
30,295
-5.0%
3.5%
3.2%
2.9%
3,285
3,865
4,500
5,180
5,870
6,528
2,675
2,570
2,650
2,666
3,007
3,175
LIGHT
SPORT
TOTAL
-1.7%
3.3%
0.4%
0.3%
4,595
4,710
4,765
4,800
4,840
5,684
4,133
3,818
4,271
4,476
4,262
4,450
-0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
215,600
219,405
224,805
231,050
238,350
223,370
210,981
204,140
209,194
209,540
214,222
214,940
-0.8%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
141,225
139,640
138,655
138,085
138,285
159,007
144,485
138,936
141,632
140,476
142,209
141,680
1.8%
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
36,070
40,000
44,560
49,510
54,685
27,367
32,239
32,449
32,681
33,860
34,630
35,340
GENERAL
AVIATION TOTAL
TOTAL
OTHER FLEET
PISTONS TURBINES
**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012.
Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year.
0.8%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
7,465
8,340
9,290
10,285
11,280
6,514
7,109
6,816
7,020
7,021
7,142
7,300
EXPERIPISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL**
* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2023, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical*
SINGLE
AS OF DEC. 31 ENGINE
PISTON
MULTIENGINE
ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI AIRCRAFT
TABLE 28
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
113
13,584
12,238
11,990
12,035
12,232
12,161
12,700
11,603
12,808
12,999
14,613
14,087
1.1%
-3.6%
-1.2%
-0.5%
-1.4%
0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
1,495
1,498
1,498
1,507
1,539
1,818
1,731
1,336
1,494
1,432
1,492
1,493
0.8%
-3.2%
-1.1%
-0.5%
15,079
13,736
13,488
13,542
13,771
13,979
14,431
12,939
14,302
14,431
16,105
15,580
TOTAL
1.7%
2.0%
1.1%
1.2%
2,994
3,184
3,347
3,548
3,782
2,325
2,619
2,344
2,720
2,846
2,841
2,936
2.6%
4.8%
3.5%
3.1%
5,085
6,125
7,186
8,253
9,320
3,375
3,926
3,336
4,868
5,238
4,628
4,850
2.3%
3.8%
2.7%
2.4%
8,079
9,309
10,533
11,802
13,102
5,700
6,546
5,681
7,587
8,084
7,469
7,786
TURBINE
TURBO TURBO
PROP
JET
TOTAL
FIXED WING
-1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
0.9%
682
724
759
788
816
794
628
537
578
537
668
674
-1.0%
2.2%
2.2%
2.0%
3,036
3,394
3,771
4,147
4,528
3,405
2,997
2,408
2,756
2,775
2,907
2,969
1.8%
-2.1%
0.8%
0.9%
1,531
1,575
1,656
1,744
1,837
1,226
1,269
1,176
1,394
1,279
1,594
1,564
0.9%
-0.6%
1.9%
2.5%
350
362
423
498
576
311
189
202
245
231
355
352
-1.7%
6.4%
1.3%
0.8%
152
168
172
175
177
181
135
86
156
153
132
143
1.0%
-0.6%
0.6%
0.9%
28,227
28,544
30,044
31,908
33,991
24,802
25,566
22,492
26,441
26,953
28,563
28,394
**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012.
Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year.
-0.9%
2.6%
2.5%
2.3%
2,354
2,670
3,012
3,359
3,712
2,611
2,369
1,871
2,178
2,238
2,239
2,295
0.7%
-3.0%
-1.0%
-0.4%
15,760
14,460
14,247
14,330
14,587
14,773
15,059
13,477
14,880
14,969
16,773
16,254
1.4%
3.5%
2.6%
2.4%
10,434
11,979
13,545
15,161
16,814
8,311
8,914
7,552
9,765
10,322
9,708
10,082
TOTAL
GENERAL
EXPERI- LIGHT SPORT
AVIATION TOTAL
TOTAL
PISTON TURBINE TOTAL MENTAL** AIRCRAFT** OTHER HOURS PISTONS TURBINES
ROTORCRAFT
* Source: 2001-2010, 2012-2023, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical*
PISTON
SINGLE MULTIAS OF DEC. 31 ENGINE ENGINE
(In Thousands)
ACTIVE GENERAL AVIATION AND AIR TAXI HOURS FLOWN
TABLE 29
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
114
-8.7%
-15.3%
-100.0%
-99.9%
5.0%
3.4%
2.9%
2.6%
7,560
8,815
10,090
11,405
12,530
3,682
6,467
6,643
6,801
6,957
7,144
7,309
SPORT
PILOT
-1.1%
1.7%
0.1%
0.0%
174,950
178,550
176,700
175,550
176,100
202,020
161,105
160,860
161,459
164,090
167,711
172,012
PRIVATE
-0.9%
2.3%
0.9%
0.5%
112,200
120,000
123,150
124,300
124,750
123,705
100,863
103,879
104,610
104,498
106,711
109,727
1.7%
2.6%
0.8%
0.7%
183,900
192,000
199,400
206,300
213,400
142,198
164,947
164,193
163,934
166,738
174,113
179,194
AIRLINE
COMMERCIAL TRANSPORT
-1.0%
1.3%
1.4%
1.3%
13,600
14,500
15,650
16,650
17,650
15,377
14,248
13,629
13,191
13,180
13,428
13,429
0.1%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
21,800
23,100
23,750
24,050
24,150
21,275
19,143
19,753
20,328
20,804
21,292
21,545
-0.1%
2.1%
0.7%
0.5%
514,060
536,970
548,740
558,255
568,580
508,469
466,900
469,062
470,408
476,346
490,470
503,275
TOTAL LESS
STUDENT
PILOTS
GLIDER ONLY
0.5%
2.6%
0.6%
0.5%
351,350
363,900
373,650
382,300
390,450
318,001
314,168
316,651
317,169
321,217
332,313
342,400
-0.9%
1.9%
0.6%
0.4%
330,160
344,970
349,340
351,955
355,180
366,271
301,953
304,869
306,474
309,608
316,357
324,081
INSTRUMENT
GA PILOTS
RATED
(EXCLUDING
STUDENTS & ATPs)
PILOTS1
Starting with April 2016, there is no expiration date on the new student pilot certificates. This generates a cumulative increase in the student pilot
numbers and breaks the link between student pilot and private pilot or higher level certificates. Since there is no sufficient data yet to forecast
the student certificates unter the new rule, student pilot forecast is suspended and excluded from this table.
1
Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.
Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.
*
** Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
50
5
0
0
0
212
127
105
85
79
71
59
RECREATIONAL
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Historical**
AS OF DEC. 31
ROTORCRAFT
ONLY
ACTIVE PILOTS BY TYPE OF CERTIFICATE, EXCLUDING STUDENT PILOTS*
TABLE 30
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
115
1.7%
-3.8%
-1.5%
-0.8%
162
144
140
137
139
133
131
146
155
158
175
168
SINGLE
ENGINE
-1.1%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.2%
46
45
44
43
44
54
45
35
47
45
46
46
MULTIENGINE
1.9%
1.5%
0.6%
0.7%
248
258
264
274
285
187
213
201
230
242
237
244
TURBO
PROP
2.0%
3.9%
2.8%
2.4%
1,533
1,785
2,030
2,260
2,479
1,123
1,170
1,036
1,557
1,683
1,420
1,475
TURBO
JET
-0.9%
1.1%
1.0%
0.8%
10
10
11
11
11
11
8
8
8
8
9
9
PISTON
-0.2%
2.3%
1.9%
1.6%
123
136
149
162
168
125
127
105
123
123
118
121
0.7%
-1.5%
0.8%
0.9%
23
24
25
26
28
22
16
14
18
21
24
24
1.8%
-0.9%
1.5%
2.2%
2
2
2
2
3
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
EXPERIMENTAL** LIGHT
TURBINE / OTHER SPORT**
ROTORCRAFT
0.9%
-2.7%
-0.9%
-0.4%
242
225
221
221
225
221
200
204
229
233
256
249
AVGAS
1.8%
3.5%
2.5%
2.2%
1,904
2,178
2,443
2,695
2,933
1,435
1,510
1,342
1,909
2,048
1,776
1,840
JET FUEL
1.7%
2.7%
2.2%
1.9%
2,147
2,403
2,665
2,916
3,157
1,656
1,711
1,546
2,138
2,281
2,032
2,089
TOTAL
TOTAL FUEL CONSUMED
**Experimental Light-sport category that was previously shown under Sport Aircraft is moved under Experimental Aircraft category, starting in 2012.
Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.
*Source: FAA APO Estimates.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical*
CALENDAR YEAR
FIXED WING
PISTON
TURBINE
(In Millions of Gallons)
GENERAL AVIATION AIRCRAFT FUEL CONSUMPTION
TABLE 31
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
116
2.2%
2.8%
2.3%
2.1%
17,529
20,076
22,024
24,138
26,382
Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
-2.4%
4.4%
1.0%
1.3%
7,029
7,108
7,753
8,430
9,143
0.0%
2.9%
0.7%
0.5%
15,348
16,180
16,480
16,788
17,106
14,864
14,459
12,791
13,891
14,635
14,582
14,917
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
9,410
7,274
5,514
5,893
6,522
6,456
6,733
12,658
16,195
11,742
12,214
15,150
16,158
17,052
FISCAL YEAR
Historical
AIR
AIR TAXI/
CARRIER COMMUTER ITINERANT
2.2%
3.0%
0.7%
0.5%
16,456
17,289
17,621
17,963
18,316
11,716
13,373
12,597
13,652
14,029
15,270
15,971
LOCAL
1.1%
3.0%
0.7%
0.5%
31,804
33,469
34,101
34,751
35,421
26,580
27,832
25,387
27,543
28,664
29,852
30,888
TOTAL
GENERAL AVIATION
-1.0%
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
1,145
1,145
1,145
1,145
1,145
1,309
1,401
1,245
1,339
1,268
1,194
1,131
ITINERANT
(In Thousands)
-4.3%
3.5%
0.0%
0.0%
722
722
722
722
722
1,298
1,134
1,020
1,075
986
866
697
LOCAL
MILITARY
-2.5%
2.1%
0.0%
0.0%
1,867
1,867
1,867
1,867
1,867
2,607
2,536
2,265
2,414
2,254
2,060
1,829
TOTAL
WITH FAA AND CONTRACT TRAFFIC CONTROL SERVICE
TOTAL COMBINED AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS AT AIRPORTS
TABLE 32
0.7%
3.1%
1.2%
1.1%
58,229
62,521
65,744
69,187
72,813
51,255
53,836
44,907
48,064
52,591
54,526
56,502
TOTAL
264
264
264
264
264
264
264
264
264
264
264
264
FAA
265
265
265
265
265
244
256
256
258
260
262
264
CONTRACT
NUMBER OF TOWERS
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
117
2.1%
2.8%
2.3%
2.0%
17,308
19,802
21,702
23,767
25,960
12,575
16,014
11,617
12,045
14,967
15,957
16,841
AIR CARRIER
Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
-2.4%
4.4%
0.5%
1.0%
6,319
6,136
6,644
7,174
7,729
8,512
6,600
5,153
5,462
5,925
5,823
6,054
AIR TAXI/
COMMUTER
0.2%
2.5%
0.7%
0.5%
11,413
12,057
12,253
12,454
12,660
10,761
10,960
9,691
10,742
11,376
11,001
11,133
GENERAL
AVIATION
(In Thousands)
-1.6%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1,630
1,630
1,630
1,630
1,630
2,050
1,946
1,763
1,894
1,825
1,699
1,630
MILITARY
TOTAL TRACON OPERATIONS
TABLE 33
-2.1%
2.8%
1.4%
1.3%
3,701
3,997
4,259
4,540
4,836
4,840
3,706
3,050
3,393
3,601
3,509
3,599
OVERFLIGHT
0.1%
2.8%
1.4%
1.4%
40,371
43,622
46,488
49,566
52,815
38,738
39,227
31,274
33,536
37,694
37,988
39,256
TOTAL
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
118
1.1%
1.8%
2.1%
1.9%
36,868
41,452
45,240
49,391
53,810
30,965
35,783
25,608
26,449
32,891
34,436
36,209
COMMERCIAL
Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity
2010-24
2024-25
2025-35
2025-45
Avg Annual Growth
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Forecast
2010
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
Historical
FISCAL YEAR
-0.3%
2.3%
0.9%
0.8%
6,427
6,830
7,036
7,252
7,480
6,550
6,309
5,096
6,124
7,034
6,461
6,284
-5.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1,385
1,385
1,385
1,385
1,385
2,982
1,645
1,404
1,525
1,511
1,416
1,385
IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED
GENERAL
AVIATION
MILITARY
(In Thousands)
0.6%
1.8%
1.8%
1.7%
44,681
49,667
53,661
58,029
62,676
40,498
43,737
32,108
34,098
41,437
42,313
43,878
TOTAL
IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED
AT FAA EN ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL CENTERS
TABLE 34
FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045
| File Type | application/pdf |
| File Title | FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2025–2045 |
| File Modified | 2025-06-11 |
| File Created | 2025-06-06 |